- Anett Kontaveit is the -156 favorite over Garbine Muguruza in their WTA Finals match on Sunday, November 14
- Estonia’s Kontaveit is already guaranteed a spot in the semifinals
- Spain’s Muguruza is requiring a straight-set win in this match to guarantee her a semifinal berth
No matter what unfolds on court Sunday, Anett Kontaveit will be moving on in the WTA Finals. Garbine Muguruza, though, needs to make something happen in order to live to play another day.
Estonia’s Kontaveit is through to the semifinal round of the competition. All that’s left to be determined is whether she will do so with a #1 or a #2 seeding.
For Spain’s Muguruza, a straight-set win over Kontaveit in their final group stage match on Sunday would guarantee advancement for her to the semifinals. Muguruza can also advance with a three-set triumph, although there are other mitigating factors involved in that outcome.
Oddsmakers are favoring Kontaveit to emerge victorious as the two players clash on court Sunday. She’s the -165 betting choice.
Muguruza vs Kontaveit WTA Finals Odds
| Player | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garbine Muguruza | +128 | +2.5 (-120) | O 20.5 (-180) |
| Anett Kontaveit | -156 | -2.5 (-110) | U 20.5 (+115) |
Odds as of November 14 at FanDuel
The match is scheduled to get underway at 8:30pm ET in Guadalajara, Mexico. The Tennis Channel will be carrying all the action.
Anett Kontaveit Betting Trends
Kontaveit is carrying on confidently against the world’s best players in the WTA Finals. Currently #8 in the world rankings, she’s already beaten two players rated ahead of her in the WTA rankings in straight sets.
The Estonian player toppled world #3 Barbora Krejcikova 6-3, 6-4 in her opening group stage match. Kontaveit then followed up with a 6-4, 6-0 verdict of world #4 Karolina Pliskova.
Anett Kontaveit, the last player to qualify for Guadalajara, is the first into the semifinals.
She wins the last 8 games to beat Karolina Pliskova 6-4, 6-0 in 57 minutes and confirm her place in the last four.
12 consecutive wins.
Won 28 of her last 30 matches.
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) November 12, 2021
Kontaveit certainly was carrying the hot hand entering this event. She was a winner in each of her two previous tournaments. Kontaveit downed Simona Halep 6-2, 6-3 in the final of the Transylvania Open. Prior to that, she toppled Ekaterina Alexandrova 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 to win the VTB Kremlin Cup.
Kontaveit has won 12 straight matches and 15 of her last 16. She’s 22-1 in her last 23 sets played.
Garbine Muguruza Betting Trends
Muguruza must rise to the occasion if a WTA Finals semifinal berth is to be in her future. The world #5 from Spain has played a pair of three-set matches thus far in the event.
Muguruza fell 6-4, 2-6, 6-7(6-8) to Pliskova. She rallied to defeat Krejcikova 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 in her second group stage match.
Muguruza + winner = happy crowd 🙌#AKRONWTAFinals pic.twitter.com/NQhztaFxp7
— wta (@WTA) November 13, 2021
For Muguruza to advance, she must defeat Kontaveit in straight sets. That guarantees a semifinal spot for the Spaniard. If Muguruza wins in three sets, she’s also through to the semifinals. That is unless Pliskova defeats Krejcikova in straight sets in the other final match of this group.
There is also a sliver of hope for Muguruza to advance were she to be a three-set loser to Kontaveit. In that scenario, the Spanish player would be needing a Krejcikova victory over Pliskova. Muguruza-Kontaveit is the final match of the group. The Spanish player will know exactly what is required for her advancement to the semis.
Muguruza vs Kontaveit Prediction
Among the victims during this hot streak of Kontaveit’s is Muguruza. Kontaveit posted a 48-minute 6-1, 6-1 rout of Muguruza three weeks ago in the Moscow quarterfinals.
Kontaveit: "I've really been enjoying being on court, just having a good time. I think that's been the main thing why I've been doing so well.
"I do feel like I can take on everyone. I never expect an easy match, I always expect it to be tough.”#AKRONWTAFinals pic.twitter.com/keOVMHhNpP
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) November 13, 2021
Kontaveit’s dominance of late is utterly astounding. The Estonian has won 28 of her past 30 matches, She’s captured 14 sets in a row, 24 of her past 25, and 41 of her past 44 since September.
Garbine Muguruza vs Anett Kontaveit Stats
| 5 | ATP Ranking | 8 |
| 9 | ATP Titles | 5 |
| 16 | ATP Final Appearances | 12 |
| 39-17 | W-L (2021) | 47-15 |
| 66.2% | Service Games Won | 72.1% |
| 43.1% | Return Games Won | 40.5% |
| 51.6% | Break Points Saved | 57.6% |
| 149 | Aces | 205 |
Overall, Kontaveit and Muguruza are 2-2 in head-to-head meetings. Beside this year’s Kremlin Cup victory, Kontaveit also defeated Muguruza 2-6, 7-6(7-1), 6-1 in the second round at Stuttgart in 2017. Muguruza’s wins both came during Grand Slam events. She took a 6-0, 6-4 verdict in first-round play at the 2016 Australian Open. As well, Muguruza was a 6-7(4-7), 6-4, 6-2 victor in the second round at Roland Garros in 2017.
Muguruza: "I tell myself I'm in Mexico. I love it here. I'm going to give everything I have left on every single match.
"It's very open. You never feel you don't have a chance right now. So that's where I get my fuel. I'm very excited to keep my options alive.”#AKRONWTAFinals pic.twitter.com/me3WlRsFlj
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) November 13, 2021
Muguruza has won 11 of the last 12 matches she’s played in Mexico. She’s a popular player with the Mexican crowd. Facing a fan favorite shouldn’t faze Kontaveit, though. She beat Romania’s Halep in the Transylvania Open final. The Estonian also took out Russia’s Alexandrova in the Kremlin Cup final.
Pick: Under 20.5 games (+118); Kontaveit 2-0 (+160).