Week 12 of the NFL slate kicks off with an AFC North battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) and Cleveland Browns (2-8) on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video).
The Steelers sit atop the division and are coming off a big victory at home against the Baltimore Ravens and have won five straight overall. Meanwhile, the Browns are toiling in last place in the North and just got wiped out by the Saints in New Orleans.
With a win on Thursday, the Steelers would improve to 9-2 and clinch a 21st consecutive season with a win percentage of .500 or higher. That would match the longest streak in NFL history, also done by the Dallas Cowboys from 1965 to 1985. Pittsburgh hasn't finished with a losing record since 2003, the year before the team drafted Ben Roethlisberger.
Russell Wilson is 3-0 in his career against the Browns, including wins with both the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. He holds an 89.5 total QBR against Cleveland, his highest versus a single opponent in his career and the highest mark by any QB against Cleveland since ESPN introduced the metric in 2006.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Steelers -3.5 (Opened Steelers -3.5, moved to -4, currently -3.5)
Moneyline: Steelers -190, Browns +160
Over/Under: 36.5 (Opened 36.5)
First-half spread: Steelers -2.5 (-115), Browns +2.5 (-115)
Steelers total points: 20.5 (Over +100/Under -135)
Browns total points: 16.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
The props
Passing
Jameis Winston total passing yards: 224.5 (Over +115/Under -145)
Winston total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -155)
Russell Wilson total passing yards: 174.5 (Over -155/Under +120)
Wilson total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -155)
Rushing
Nick Chubb total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over -135/Under +100)
Najee Harris total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Jaylen Warren total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Receiving
George Pickens total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Jerry Jeudy total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Cedric Tillman total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Elijah Moore total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
David Njoku total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Anita Marks's pick: Steelers -4
When the Browns lose, they lose by a lot, as they have eight loses by four points or more. They are also 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games against Pittsburgh, and 1-4 at home this season. Mike Tomlin is good on the road, sporting an 8-2 ATS record. The Steelers are deep and playing for the division, the Browns season is pretty much over.
George Pickens Over 56.5 Total Receiving Yards (-110) , Anytime TD scorer (+155)
The Browns defense is horrible against No. 1 wide receivers, allowing 10 yards per attempt. Cleveland has allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers in the past four games. On the other side, Pickens has at least 74 yards receiving in all four games with Wilson at QB.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
The Steelers are 8-2 ATS this season, tied for the best mark in the NFL this season. They are 18-9 ATS over the past two seasons, second best behind the Lions.
The Steelers have covered five straight games, tied for their longest single-season cover streak in the Mike Tomlin era.
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS on the road this season and 15-7 ATS on the road since 2022. The Browns are 1-4 ATS at home this season.
The Browns have covered four straight games on short rest and are 7-2 ATS in that role under Kevin Stefanski.
The Steelers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games as favorites.They are also 15-6 ATS in November or later since 2022.
The over/under of 35.5 is tied for the lowest in any game this season. Entering this week, six games have had totals below 37, and three of the six included the Steelers.
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