2 weaknesses the Browns can exploit against the Steelers: Inside the numbers

CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Browns' first prime-time game of the season comes at a time when they have seemingly nothing to play for. With a 2-8 record, missing out on the playoffs is all but a formality. On the other hand, the 8-2 Steelers are one of the dominant teams in the AFC, with Russell Wilson and company building momentum week after week.

For the Browns, this game is an opportunity to shift the narrative. To build something positive in what has been a disastrous season. The Steelers are undoubtedly a great team and a difficult matchup. But they have weaknesses the Browns are well suited to exploit. And the advanced stats agree:

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Weakness 1: The Deep Ball

The biggest threat the Steelers offense poses is the deep ball. Wilson is starting to show flashes of his old self, throwing his classic “moonballs” to WRs George Pickens and Mike Williams. Statistically, they’ve been one of the best offenses at attacking the deep areas of the field in the NFL:

Steelers deep passing game with QB Russell Wilson

• 15.5 yards per attempt (1st)
• 121.5 passer rating (7th)
• 21.45 EPA generated (3rd)

(Expected Points Added (EPA) is a statistic that quantifies how valuable each play is in terms of points based on down, distance, and field position. EPA assesses the “value” of a play in a way that a 4-yard gain on third-and-3 is more valuable than a 4-yard gain on second-and-15. In the box score, both four-yard gains would show up equally in the stat sheet. EPA takes the situation of the play into consideration.)

While the Browns defense has underperformed this season, data from Sports Info Solutions shows that they have been fairly good at stopping the deep ball. Even with a revolving door of injuries in the secondary, the Browns have been able to limit offenses attacking down the field.

Browns defense vs. the deep ball

• 8.1 yards per attempt allowed (8th)
• 92.3 passer rating allowed (14th)
• 5.01 EPA allowed (12th)

The Browns will have to match up with Pittsburgh’s physical receivers on an island all game. The Steelers are going to try to push the ball downfield as they have with Wilson under center.

This works well for a Browns defense which — in an ideal world — wants to run heavy doses of man coverage and let the pass rush go to work. The cornerback trio of Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II, and Martin Emerson Jr. will have to put an emphasis on physicality to disrupt the timing necessary for Wilson and his receivers to connect on chunk plays.

Weakness 2: Winston’s time to throw

It hasn’t been perfect. But Winston’s decisiveness with the football has been a breath of fresh air for the offense. This is reflected in his average time to throw of just 2.69 seconds, which is the eighth-lowest among starting QBs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

The Steelers defense is a very aggressive one. They employ multiple fronts, coverage shells and blitz packages to wreak havoc. While they have their superstar in T.J. Watt, their defensive success is more built upon cohesion and versatility rather than individual efforts.

The longer they can get the quarterback to hold onto the ball and play indecisively, the better the results for the Steelers. They thrive on muddling the picture for opposing quarterbacks since they often have the edge schematically. As a result, there is a very clear difference in how the defense performs when quarterbacks gets rid of the ball quickly compared to when they do play decisively.

• Greater than 2.75 seconds: 4-0 record | 266.3 yards per game allowed
• Less than 2.75 seconds: 4-2 record | 331.3 yards per game allowed

When opposing QBs have an average time to throw of greater than 2.75 seconds, the Steelers defense is dominant. When opposing QBs get the ball out efficiently, the defense has shown to be exploitable.

Jameis Winston — up until this point — has played confidently in the structure of the offense. It hasn’t and won’t always lead to perfect results, but if he can stick with the process, he should be able to lead this offense to success against Pittsburgh.

Everyone is expecting the Steelers to come into Cleveland and win comfortably. On paper, Pittsburgh has everything in the world to play for while the Browns do not.

It’s no secret that the last game the Browns will play this year will be a regular season game. But this game represents more than just pride — it’s an opportunity to build confidence and play spoiler against a division rival, which go hand in hand.