Did Carlos Rodón have a good season?

Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS tomorrow against the Royals, and there’s precious few people I’d rather have on the bump than him. As he’s rounded into form since coming off the IL in June, we’ve seen him recapture that Cy Young-level dominance he showed last year, intentional walk problems aside. But let’s talk about Game 2’s starter, Carlos Rodón.

Rodón made 32 starts this year, crucial for a team that had a lot of volatility in the starting rotation, with a league-average ERA, but it was really a season in three acts:

You might think this season resembles a rather unpleasant kind of sandwich — one really stinky stretch in between 20-odd good games. That seven-game derailing came between June 15th and July 22nd, where Carlos had a 7.91 ERA despite striking out almost 30 percent of batters, higher than his season average.

Rodón’s always been the type to lean heavily on the four-seam fastball, and so it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise that he struggled most the less he threw it:

This was that part of the season where Rodón started dabbling with his cutter, and while it’s not a bad show-me pitch, clearly the number one has to be, well, the number one.

Now, baseball doesn’t actually work like this, because you’re going to have bad starts, but take that seven-start run out and all of a sudden Carlos’ ERA would sit at a sterling 3.00. He did pitch to more contact this season, and that could play well against a more contact-inclined team like the Royals Monday night.

In fact, Rodón faced these very same Royals last month, at Yankee Stadium to boot. He struck out nine against one walk in six innings, although he was tagged for four runs (only two earned):

He did give up two home runs on the night, one to Hunter Renfroe and one of course to Sal Perez. Interestingly enough, both came on the secondary stuff:

The curveball outside to Sal is just a textbook example of him selling out for power with every swing, which has kinda been his game for the last three years or so. You chalk that one up as the cost of doing business. The hanging changeup to Renfroe is a much more obvious mistake. He did throw his fastball more than half the time in that outing though, and was let down by his defense for a couple runs in the third inning.

The Royals aren’t a great offensive team, and they’re especially on the weaker end against heat. Kansas City’s 21st in the game by wOBA against four-seam fastballs, although they are slightly better against fastballs over 95 mph, which is right about where Rodón sits — 95.4 mph this season.

When Carlos wasn’t messing with his cutter, and relying on the four-seam, he had a really good season. His September outing against these Royals came with him leaning on his primary offering, and you have to imagine that’s the gameplan for Monday night.