Mariners series preview: Two young stars off to very different starts

Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt Jr. were both rookies in 2022. Rodríguez was a sensation right from the start, earning Rookie of the Year honors, while Witt had mixed results in his inaugural season. Both took a step forward with 30/30 seasons, earning MVP consideration last year, and the future seemed very bright for both. But while Witt has taken his game to an even higher level, Rodríguez has struggled mightily this year, leading the league in strikeouts with a wRC+ of just 95.

Seattle Mariners (36-28) vs. Kansas City Royals (37-26) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Mariners: 3.72 runs scored/game (27th in MLB), 3.56 runs allowed/game (3rd)

Royals: 4.86 runs scored/game (7th), 3.71 runs allowed/game (6th)

Rodríguez and the Mariners head into town this weekend, after taking two of three from the Royals in Seattle back in May. They are playing well, winning nine of their last eleven games, although against teams with losing records - the Nationals, Astros, Angels, and A’s. They are 15-17 on the road, and haven’t won a road series against a team with a .500 record or better.

The Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in baseball by far, with four hitters - Cal Raleigh, Mitch Garver, Julio Rodríguez, and Mitch Haniger, among the top 25 biggest whiffers in baseball. They have the second-lowest batting average, but they do have an above-average walk rate. They have struggled to score runs at times - in 23 of their 64 games they have scored two or fewer runs.

The Mariners do have a lot of hitters who can put the ball out of the ballpark, and they have hit more home runs on the road than at home. Cal Raleigh has hit just one home run since the Royals series in mid-May, hitting .170/.250/.271 in 19 games since then. Dylan Moore is also mired in an awful slump, hitting 4-for-39 in his last 12 games. The Mariners have stolen 43 bases with an 80 percent success rate and have made the second-fewest outs on the bases. They will be without infielder Jorge Polanco, who is out with a hamstring injury.

All three Mariners starters are in the top 30 in baseball in strikeout rate. Bryce Miller struck out nine in six shutout innings against the Angels his last time out, allowing just three hits. He has been much more hittable on the road with a 4.76 ERA in five starts away from T-Mobile Park. Miller has a 46 percent flyball rate, among the highest in the league, and he can be prone to home runs at times.

Luis Castillo also shut out the Angels his last time out, allowing just two hits over seven innings. In four career starts at Kauffman Stadium, he has a 4.76 ERA. Castillo has a 43.2 percent whiff rate on his slider, but his sinker has been hammered, with opponents hitting .351 against it. Castillo has gone six or more innings in ten of his last eleven starts and he is tenth in baseball in innings pitched.

Kirby tossed seven shutout innings against the Royals back in May, allowing just three hits and no walks in the Mariners victory. He has the second-lowest walk rate in baseball among starters and the second-highest soft-hit rate. He and Miller both throw 95 mph with their heater, some of the best velocities by any starter.

Mariners relievers have a 3.52 ERA, ninth-best in baseball, with the ninth-best strikeout rate and the ninth-lowest walk rate. Andrés Muñoz bring his 98.6 mph fastball, one of the biggest heaters in baseball that has led to the 15th-highest strikeout rate among relievers. He has converted 11-of-12 save opportunities this year, but he gave up two hits in four batters, allowing a run in his last outing on Monday against the A’s. The Mariners are without Gabe Speier or Gregory Santos, and have relied on a lot of 30+ year old journeymen like Autsin Voth and Trent Thornton. Kansas City native Ryne Stanek is posting a career-low walk rate.

The Royals continue their tough stretch of games against some of the best teams in baseball, and have held their own so far with a 14-16 record against teams that currently have a .500 record or better, tenth-best in baseball. The Mariners will provide a good test of what it is like to face a team with a contender-quality pitching staff. It will take timely hitting and a good bullpen to hold down leads in this battle against Seattle.