This wasn’t how Opening Day was supposed to go. Depending on when you were projecting the Mets’ Opening Day starter, you either had optimism that Yoshinobu Yamamoto was going to be the newest Met and would take the hill on March 28th. If it was on the first day of Spring Training, you likely thought Kodai Senga would be introduced from the bullpen at Citi Field. Or, if a few weeks ago, after Yamamoto signed with Los Angeles and Senga injured his shoulder, you maybe thought that Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell would be signed to fill his rotation spot.
Well, none of that happened (at least not yet on Montgomery - he’s still a free agent as of this writing), and so José Quintana is joining luminaries like Tylor Megill and Dillon Gee as “oh yeah, that guy made an Opening Day start!” Opening Day starter. This is not to lump Quintana in with Megill or Gee in terms of talent, but each of them were unlikely Opening Day starters, thrust into the position due to injuries, timing, and some classic Metsian bad luck.
Quintana is a 35 year old journeyman starter who is having a late-career resurgence, as have so many left-handed starters before him. Before his 2022 season, split between the Pirates and the Cardinals, Quintana appeared to be toast. His 2021 innings totaled just 61 for the Giants and Angels with an ERA of 6.43. If we dismiss the small sample size of 2020, the last season that Quintana was above league average by ERA+ was 2018, with a 103 ERA+.
But 2022 changed the conversation for Quintana, with a sub-3.00 ERA leading to the Mets signing him to a 2-year, $26 million contract. After a freak injury (a lesion on the ribs is a first in my ten-year baseball writing career), Quintana joined the team in mid-July and essentially replicated his 2022 season, rate-wise, over the second half of the year. He limited hard contact, specifically the home run, and posted a slightly lower walk rate and slightly higher strikeout rate than he did the year prior. The difference in ERA - approximately half a run - wasn’t significant and could easily be chalked up to fewer innings.
Going into 2024, Quintana could very easily project to be a mid-rotation, or even #2, starter in a normal season. With Senga missing at least the first month of the season, Quintana is going to have to be the de facto ace for the team until Senga’s return. That’s not exactly a fair expectation to set, but if you’re expecting logic from Mets fans, or any baseball fanbase for that matter, I may suggest a new hobby.
With the Mets adding J.D. Martinez to lengthen the lineup and a shake up of the bullpen, there is (hopefully) less pressure on the rotation to be top flight, especially in the first month. If Quintana is expected to simply keep in line with his last two seasons, he has the opportunity to impress and continue his late career surge. However, if the Opening Day starter tag elevates expectations too high, the fanbase is setting up Quintana for a let down of a season.
But let’s not do that. Quintana put up 3.6 bWAR in 2022 and 1.7 in his shortened 2023 season. It is absolutely reasonable to expect 140-170 innings of an ERA somewhere in the threes, and that would be a very valuable season for Quintana.