EAGAN, Minn. -- When quarterback Nick Mullens steps behind center Saturday in Cincinnati, he'll give the Minnesota Vikings a chance to make history.
Stay with us for a minute here.
Mullens will be the Vikings' fourth starting quarterback in the past seven games, following Kirk Cousins, Jaren Hall and Joshua Dobbs. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Vikings will be the 29th NFL team since 1950 to endure that frequency of turnover at the position.
That's not the wild part, however. Such a turn of events has usually led to disaster. In fact, only four of the previous 28 teams have made the playoffs, and all of them -- most recently the 2013 Green Bay Packers -- have gotten their original starter back for at least a portion of the remainder of the season. And even in the messy interim, none of them got wins from all four of their starters in that seven-game stretch (except for during the 1987 strike season).
The 2023 Vikings would be the first if Mullens -- named the team's starting quarterback this week by coach Kevin O'Connell -- can lead them to a victory over the Bengals. If he does, the Vikings would have an excellent chance -- 78.5%, according to ESPN's Football Power Index -- to be the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs after losing their starting quarterback for the season and rotating three other starters in their lineup so quickly after the injury.
Even if they lose Saturday, FPI would still give them a 51.5% chance to reach the postseason, albeit in a larger 14-team field than some of their predecessors. Put more simply, the Vikings are well on their way to one of the most objectively improbable playoff runs in NFL history.
"With the quarterback situation, obviously that's the leader of our offense," tight end T.J. Hockenson said. "We have trust in all those guys. When they've come in the huddle, every single one of them has had confidence to come in there and throw the ball and be able to do what their job is, which has been incredible. [The history is] not something really I've really looked at, but it's something we've been able to come through and will continue to do."
The Vikings are using what O'Connell has called a "week-to-week offense" to accommodate the frequent transitions. But in an alternate universe, none of it would have been necessary. Mullens opened the season as the Vikings' No. 2 quarterback, and were it not for a back injury that sidelined him in mid-October, it would have been him -- not Hall -- who replaced Cousins after he ruptured his right Achilles tendon Oct. 29 at Lambeau Field.
"There's a lot of emotions," Mullens said. "Obviously Kirk was playing at an All-Pro level. So it's awesome to just watch that and experience that. That's the standard of what it looks like. And then that happens. It was obviously uncertain times for everybody. You just take it one step at a time. ... You've got to keep your head down, as a group, and that's what this team did. We've been through a lot this year, and the year's not over."
Mullens had previously made a career of stepping into jobs vacated by injuries, starting eight games for the San Francisco 49ers in both 2018 and 2020, and one for the Cleveland Browns in 2021. The Vikings acquired him at the end of training camp in 2022, and then re-signed him as a free agent this spring.
His 16 months in their offense puts him far ahead of both Hall -- a fifth-round draft pick earlier this year -- and Dobbs, whom the Vikings famously acquired at the Oct. 31 trade deadline. NFL teams often try to fill their No. 2 spot with a player who can mirror the starter's skill set and mentality, and Mullens has grown close with Cousins during his time in Minnesota.
The pair even took a trip last offseason to visit retired quarterbacks to pick their brains on what approaches worked and didn't work in career hindsight, Cousins said in August. And it was notable to watch the way Mullens approached his relief appearance Sunday in Las Vegas, firing his first pass 26 yards downfield to Hockenson and throwing for more yards (83) on 13 attempts than Dobbs (63) had on 23 throws.
"Nick knows this offense well," Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said. "He's been with us for a while. ... As appreciative as I am of Josh, Nick probably is more comfortable in our system, just from being here longer, getting the reps throughout an offseason and in training camp."
Dobbs had the NFL's fourth-highest interception rate (3.4%) during his five-game stint, and in several instances his passes arrived too early or too late -- a trend that was more obvious after watching Mullens hit receivers in phase on Sunday. Mullens doesn't have nearly the mobility Dobbs demonstrated, and used to scramble for 163 yards and three touchdowns in his stint. But in the end, O'Connell said, NFL teams "do need to still drop back and throw the football."
Receiver Justin Jefferson made clear that his connection with Cousins is "different," but added: "Nick has been right behind him."
Regardless, it's now Mullens' turn to pick up the reins of an offense designed for Cousins' precision passing -- and perhaps enter the history books as well.
"When you come in midseason," Phillips said, "no matter what position, it's like learning the alphabet. Everybody else got it from A to Z. [Dobbs] kind of jumped in at Z. Really, you're learning the game plan. And some of the words that we use that have some meaning behind them, you're not necessarily getting all of that. You're just memorizing a lot of things and a lot of plays.
"I know Nick is a great competitor and I know there aren't many guys that were hurting as much to not be out there when he was injured, so I know he's really hungry for this opportunity, and I think he's going to make the most of it."