LEXINGTON, Ky.-- John Calipari has forever insisted there's no such thing as a must-win game in December. And I agree with him. Because he's right. But, that said, there's definitely such a thing as a calm-your-fanbase game in December. And there's no denying Friday's showdown between Kentucky and Louisville here inside Rupp Arena qualifies as one for both historically strong programs.
Who needs this win more?
That's a question with no clearcut answer. But, rest assured, both Kentucky and Louisville could really use it -- if only because the loser of this game that's scheduled to tip at 1 p.m. ET on CBS is guaranteed to enter January as a three-loss team with zero victories over any school that's been ranked in the AP poll at any point this season, including now. And that's not the type of lackluster resume either program expected to take into the 2018 calendar.
"We're OK," Calipari said Wednesday while discussing his team. And though he meant we're OK as in we're fine after last weekend's surprising loss to unranked UCLA, his words doubled as the simplest and most reasonable way to describe the Wildcats right now.
They're just ... OK.
Which is not to suggest they can't still become great.
Remember, Calipari has guided the Wildcats to the Final Four in four of the previous eight seasons and only missed the NCAA Tournament once. So any conversation about Kentucky is always relative -- point being that when I write the Wildcats are "just OK" it doesn't mean I think they're a middle-of-the-pack SEC team that'll live on the bubble in early March. It simply means I think they're "just OK" relative to their preseason ranking of No. 5, and relative to what they could theoretically become by Selection Sunday.
It means they still have a ways to go.
It's means the resume to date is sketchy.
Kentucky has nine wins, sure. But six of those nine wins are sub-100 KenPom wins -- and the best win is a come-from-behind victory at home over a Virginia Tech team that is ranked 39th at KenPom and has lost to Saint Louis. The two losses are neutral-court losses to Kansas and, again, most recently, UCLA. So if the Wildcats also lose to Louisville they'll carry three losses into Sunday's SEC opener against Georgia and be on a two-game losing streak to unranked opponents for the first time since 2014.
It would, no doubt, spark a meltdown among UK fans.
So that's why this game is huge for UK.
The Wildcats need a win to keep the Commonwealth calm. But Louisville could sure use a win here, too. And that's because, to date, the Cardinals have done nothing but beat average-to-bad teams while losing on the road to a Purdue team that lost to Western Kentucky and at home to a Seton Hall team that lost at Rutgers.
Louisville's best win is over Indiana.
That's not worth much.
And it's among the reasons the Cardinals have gone from 15th at KenPom in the preseason to 33rd now. They've been solid, for the most part, but certainly nothing resembling the Final Four team some thought they could be before an FBI investigation resulted in Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino (and two assistants) being removed -- and five-star freshman Brian Bowen being ruled ineligible.
It's been a rough stretch for Louisville.
The on-the-court product has reflected that.
But, in just a matter of hours on the final Friday of 2017, the Cardinals can flip the script completely. Rather than be 10-3 with no good wins, they could end up 11-2 with a road win over their rival that results in Kentucky dropping from the rankings. And wouldn't that be something? So, yeah, I agree with John Calipari that this isn't a must-win game because it's a December non-league game. But if the goal is to enjoy the rest of 2017, the Wildcats had best not lose it. Because, if they do, their fans are absolutely going to lose it.