Scottish Open Betting Preview
Most of the world’s best are in Scotland this week, using the Scottish Open to prep for next week’s Open Championship at St Andrews. Join WagerTalk golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman as they share their thoughts on this week’s event from The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, including the favorites at the top of the oddsboard and some featured head-to-head matchups.
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| 2022 Scottish Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | July 7-10, 2022 |
| Where: | The Renaissance Club in North Berwick |
| Defending Champ: | Min Woo Lee (In a Playoff) |
| Current Favorite(s): | Scheffler, Thomas and Rahm Co-Favorites at +1200 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
John Deere Classic Recap
If you’ve been following our previews all season, you know that we link to hone in on the top-10 players in Total Strokes Gained entering a tournament. This season, the best betting value has come between players ranked No. 3 through 7, and that held true once again last week as JT Poston took down the John Deere Classic in Illinois.
Wagering on those five players (ranked No. 3 through 7 in Total Strokes Gained) in every tournament this year has now produced 15 outright winners in 26 events, and that is nothing short of remarkable. This week as we pivot to the Scottish Open where 15 of the top 16 players in the world are in the field, so don’t be surprised if it happens again…
Scottish Open Odds Board
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings):
[#1] Scottie Scheffler +2.66 (+1200) DK
[#5] Justin Thomas +2.36 (+1400) Bet365
[#10] Matthew Fitzpatrick +2.24 (+1800) FD/DK
[#3] Jon Rahm +2.21 (+1200) DK
[#13] Will Zalatoris +2.17 (+2800) FD/DK
[#11] Xander Schauffele +2.00 (+2000) Bet365
[#6] Cameron Smith +1.99 (+3000) Bet365
[#7] Patrick Cantlay +1.98 (+2500) Bet365
[#14] Hideki Matsuyama +1.96 (+3400) FD
[#19] Max Homa +1.65 (+5000) FD/DK
Notables
[#9] Sam Burns +1.64 (+3100) FD (+1.85 L3 Months)
[#4] Collin Morikawa +1.32 (+2800) Bet365 (+1.74 L3 Months)
[#12] Jordan Spieth +1.10 (+3000) Bet365 (+1.69 L3 Months)
The Scottish Open Course & Field
The Renaissance Club is designed a little differently than most Scottish tracks as it was built along the coast where large areas of pines and sycamores were planted after World War II. So, unlike most links courses, there are still trees present on a few holes that affect some tee shots and approach shots. Still, it is a links course and is designed with wind in mind.
I don’t expect many players out on the course on Wednesday with forecasted winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts over 50 mph as the tournament will play host to much calmer winds, forecasted to be 10 to 20 mph all four days.
This will be the fourth edition of this tournament at the Renaissance Club, so we have a little history to look at. However, it is worth noting that the 2020 edition should be viewed with an asterisk. Weather conditions were very tough that week and the tournament didn’t feature any PGA Tour players thanks to travel restrictions amid the COVID pandemic.
This year the field is split evenly with half of the players coming from each of the PGA Tour and DP World Tour as the first co-sanctioned event. In 2019, we saw a winning score of 22-under par while last year Min Woo Lee won at 18-under par. It is worth noting that all three tournaments have had to be settled in a playoff.
The course measures just under 7,300 yards and plays as a par 71. The layout is completely re-routed for the pros compared to how the members play it so the pros can avoid the usual 10th hole as a starting hole for the split tee start times on Thursday and Friday. Instead, No. 10 will play as No. 13 this week among several other changes.
Most players are using this week to fine tune for the Open Championship next week at St Andrews so it will be interesting to see how many of the big names are in contention on Sunday. However, even with that in mind, it’s hard to envision someone outside of the OWGR Top-20 winning this week considering how many elite players are here.
Nick’s Betting Favorites
From Nick Borrman: There is just no chance I venture outside of the proven method of finding outright winners this year. While specifically No. 3 through No. 7 has produced 15 outright winners, the top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months has produced 17 outright winners in 26 tournaments this year.
Jon Rahm +1200 (DK) | Top-10 +160 (Bet365)
While Rahm no doubt would prefer to win next week at St. Andrews, this course just seems designed for him. He is the best off-the-tee player on the planet and ranks No. 1 on Strokes Gained off-the-tee while subsequently ranking No. 2 in greens in regulation. While fairways are wide this week, length will be an advantage as there are four reachable par-5s, a drivable par-4 and five other par-4s over 450 yards.
Rahm has had success year as well as he co-led last year after 36 holes before ultimately settling for solo 7th, two shots back of the playoff. He also has finishes of T-11 and T-3 in the last two Open Championships while finishing in the top-12 in each of this last two starts. He is trending in the right direction after a few struggles earlier this year and will be in contention come Sunday.
Cameron Smith +3000 (Bet365) | Top-10 +330 (Bet365)
Not a name that many people will circle this week as he has struggled in his last two starts missing the cut at the US Open after finishing T48 at the Canadian Open. But that’s one of the big reasons I like him. His price has dropped accordingly, and we haven’t seen The Players Champion at 30-1 in quite some time.
Smith’s driver has been his achilles heel, but his approach game is second-to-none (OK, well technically he is second to Willy Z, but it’s a figure of speech!) and when his putter is hot, he is tough to beat. Cam ranks No. 1 in birdie average and No. 5 in scoring average thanks to ranking no. 1 in putting per green in regulation. If he can avoid trouble off the tee, expect his irons to set him up with plenty of chances and his putter likely to convert those chances.
BEST BET Sungjae Im Top-20 +200 (Bet365)
I tried to make this bet a couple weeks ago at the Travelers, but Im withdrew before the tournament began. However, all signs point to him ready to go this week.
Sungjae is a top-20 machine with 12 finishes inside the top-20 and only seven outside. His last start was the US Open which was a rare missed cut for him, but in his only other two missed cuts this season, he finished inside the top-20 in both of his next starts.
Im ranks No. 12 in greens in regulation, No. 5 in Strokes Gained around the green, No. 12 in Strokes Gained off the tee and No. 12 in Total Strokes Gained. He also ranks No. 2 in scrambling which has proven to be an important metric here.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Scottish Open? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Scottish Open Betting Preview
Join WagerTalk golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman every Wednesday morning for Tee Time from Vegas as we break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a variety of betting angles.
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