The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins have arguably drawn an equal amount of attention as playoff hopefuls in recent years, and yet their AFC East rivalry has been something of a lopsided affair. Dating to 2017, in fact, the Bills have won 13 of their last 15 matchups with Miami, including playoffs. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, meanwhile, is just 1-6 against his division foes.
Both sides enter their next matchup -- an anticipated "Thursday Night Football" showdown that kicks off Week 2 of the 2024 campaign -- with a 1-0 record. Plenty of questions exist under the surface, however, with Buffalo barely fending off the upstart Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, and the Dolphins coming off a dramatic week that included a much-publicized pregame clash with law enforcement.
Who's primed to stay unbeaten in the early stages of the new season? How can you tune in when they renew their AFC East battle? Which players could be X factors? And who's best-suited to win? Here's our preview and prediction for the latest showdown between two of the AFC's most explosive contenders:
How to watch
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 12 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
- Stream: Prime Video
- Odds: Dolphins -1.5 | O/U 49 (SportsLine consensus)
Key matchups
- RB De'Von Achane (MIA) vs. LB Terrel Bernard (BUF): Starting ball carrier Raheem Mostert is out due to a chest injury, so Achane could be the top back for Mike McDaniel's track-speed offense, so long as he's able to play through his own ankle issue. He has the game-breaking athleticism to be a nightmare matchup for Bernard, the new centerpiece of Sean McDermott's linebacker corps.
- WR Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. CB Rasul Douglas (BUF): Fresh off a dominant deep-ball outing against the Jacksonville Jaguars, plus an equally headlining back-and-forth with Miami-Dade Police, Hill remains one of the game's most dangerous playmakers. Douglas has proven to be a feisty ballhawk on the perimeter, but he's now the No. 1 cover man in a remade and rehabbing Buffalo secondary.
- WR Keon Coleman (BUF) vs. CB Jalen Ramsey (MA): Whereas Tua Tagovailoa has elite speed at his disposal out wide, Bills quarterback Josh Allen practically willed Buffalo to victory in Week 1, with the rookie Coleman quietly serving as the primary pass outlet. The veteran Ramsey, who's still soaking in a new contract, is less than a week removed from his return from a hamstring injury.
Burning questions
- Bills: Can Sean McDermott's defense round into form? Most Buffalo fans probably aren't too worried about Josh Allen's ability to overcome a makeshift supporting cast and sling the ball against Miami, especially given his track record in this series. Days after surrendering 28 points to a young Cardinals group in a Week 1 shootout, it's McDermott's unit that'll face a tall task trying to slow the speed of Miami's downfield toys, already without injured vets like Matt Milano and Taron Johnson.
- Dolphins: Can Mike McDaniel open up the ground game? One of the reasons Tagovailoa and Co. tend to air it out so effectively is the dual threat of Miami's deep backfield also exploding. But Mostert is banged up, Achane is a game-time decision, and the entire collective mustered just 3.2 yards per carry in Week 1. That means backups like Jeff Wilson and rookie Jaylen Wright could see a major uptick in snaps. If Buffalo can force the Dolphins to be one-dimensional, this game could swing in their favor.
Prediction
Almost everything suggests this is the time for McDaniel, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to turn the tide of this "rivalry" with the Bills: They get this one at home on a short week, the weather is still warm and familiar, and Allen doesn't have the plethora of receiving options he once did. Throw in the fact the Bills gunslinger is also nursing an injury to his non-throwing hand, and there's reason to believe Miami could open the season 2-0, even with the sudden shortage of healthy running backs.
And yet: Josh Allen. We've seen time and again in the NFL that if a quarterback is head and shoulders above most others at the position, he's bound to pull off victories even when the circumstances say he shouldn't. Allen is in that class, alongside Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, etc. He is a superhero playing quarterback, and while that sometimes works against him in terms of ball security, he's got an underrated James Cook by his side, poised to keep this matchup tilted in Buffalo's favor.
Projected score: Bills 28, Dolphins 26
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