What did you think of the D-backs’ deadline moves?
James: I was expecting this to be a relatively quiet deadline and for Mike Hazen to make at least one savvy, under the radar move. Given the injury to Walker the night before the deadline, being able to grab Bell from the DFA pile was a brilliant stroke of luck.
Wesley: I’m with James, getting Bell for free was a master stroke of luck and a very savvy deadline move. Grabbing a couple arms was a given if the Dbacks were going to actually compete down the stretch.
Justin: I liked it. Kind of what I was hoping for, added two relievers. The addition of Bell was a good move, but I felt like he “had to” get something while Walker was out.
Makakilo: I loved the acquisition of AJ Puk. From last week’s roundtable,
“AJ Puk is arguably the best left-handed reliever in the Diamondbacks bullpen. Better than that, he could be a closer that the Diamondbacks badly need …” For my thoughts on AJ Puk, see this AZ Snake Pit article.
Although I’m a big fan of Christian Walker, because of his injury I liked the acquisition of Josh Bell. In his first game as a Dback, his two home runs were awesome!
Spencer: Perfectly easy without major losses in trades
Dano: I agree with Spencer with regard to the “without major losses” element especially. Beyond that I genuinely believe we made the team better. Puk did have that rough outing on Friday, but this afternoon the dude was nails. Floro looks convincingly like a drama-free late inning relief option, and we definitely needed another one of those. Josh Bell for cash is a good stopgap at 1st while Christian Walker is on in the IL. Really, I couldn’t be happier.
Ben: I think overall it was pretty good. They didn’t give up any of their top-end talent while making more marginal moves that should add some much-needed depth. I’ll be interested to see how De Los Santos fares in Miami, but that’s a question that won’t be answered for a couple seasons at the very least. I figured it would be a relatively quiet Deadline and that seems to have come to fruition. Ultimately, the team’s success the rest of the way will be dependent on the players already in the clubhouse getting either healthy or more productive - or in some cases - both.
Discuss Ketel Marte’s MVP chances.
James:If the teams continue to play like they have been, the NL MVP is quickly turning into a two-horse race. Marte has been more valuable to Arizona than Ohtani has been to the Dodgers and in terms of total value is also right there. That Marte is playing excellent second base and Ohtani is a DH helps Marte. Ohtani playing for the Dodgers and being the biggest star in the sport hurts Marte’s chances. It really is going to come down to the last 6 weeks of the season.
Wesley: Marte’s value on defense is really the thing keeping him in the conversation. Shohei’s hitting and baserunning has been worth 5.7 fWAR alone, while Ketel’s combined efforts have been worth 5.2 fWAR in comparison. Right now I’d say Ohtani has the edge, but just barely. Elly De La Cruz is just behind Marte at 5.0 fWAR, but he’s a dark horse in this race.
Justin: I have nothing to add that James didnt already say. I agree with that.
Makakilo: Two points:
- In his first 59 PAs after the All-Star break, Ketel Marte hit 8 homers! Wow, that’s 13.6% of his PAs! And that compares well to Ohtani’s 4 home runs after the All-Star break.
- Marte and Ohtani have nearly equal bWAR (5.8 vs 5.9). Significantly, Marte’s contribution has a bigger impact on his team reaching the playoffs.
Two more points from the AZ Snake Pit’s A Perspective of Ketel Marte.
- This season’s batting is on-pace to be a career-best season. [update - Marte remains on-pace].
- In the first two months of 2024, Ketel Marte’s batting was better than Marcus Semien. Marte’s defense at second base ranked second in DRS and third in OAA (behind Semien). [updates - Marte’s batting remains better than Semien. Marte and Semien are currently tied with 11 DRS]
Spencer: He should be in the conversation. I won’t bet against Ohtani though. “Only” playing one of his positions and being super valuable to his team is going to give momentum to the train already peddled by the media market.
Dano: If it does wind up genuinely being an award given for most value provided by a player, it seems to me like Ketel should have a very good shot, especially if we make the postseason again and go relatively deep into October at least. On the other hand, Ohtani is Ohtani, and if the popularity contest element plays too much of a role, Marte will likely get snubbed.
Ben: Ketel Marte has been absolutely playing at an MVP-level for nearly this entire season. Unfortunately, he happens to be playing in the same league as someone else who has been hitting at an MVP-level at the same time. The comparison below is almost exclusively highlighting offensive statistics (since those are the only ones Ohtani has) and pretty definitively shows that Ohtani is edging out Marte in nearly every category. However, I think it comes down to what the definition of MVP is for voters. Is it which individual player was most valuable to their team? Or is it which individual player was most valuable overall? Personally, Marte wins the first of those and Ohtani wins the second, but I still haven’t received my voting privileges.
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Eduardo Rodriguez should make his D-backs debut next week. What are you expecting?
James: I raised some injury concerns when the team first signed Rodriguez. However, I was not expecting to be right so quickly. That he will be making his way back before the season is over is a good sign. I’m not expecting much though, beyond possibly Rodriguez helping to spare the bullpen some innings down the stretch. The big test now is to see how he does next season. Will he be the solid, innings-eating #3 pitcher the team needs while being a left ass well? Or, will he miss most of the season to a mystery ailment again?
Wesley: I’m expecting the absolute worst and have extremely low expectations. I have no idea what kind of pitcher he’ll be when he gets back. I’m still skeptical of him coming back at all, just to be honest.
Makakilo: Two thoughts follow.
First thought. For an explanation of why Eduardo Rodriquez is comparable to Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in 5 measures of pitching consistency, see this AZ Snake Pit article.
Second thought. Prior to the 2024 season, the Diamondbacks acquired Eduardo Rodriguez. Because he is 31 years old, the following applies to him.
“When senior starting pitchers [at least 30 years old] changed teams, 80% had a worse ERA. In their second season with the new team 60% had an ERA as good or better than before they changed teams. So, acquisitions of senior starting pitchers cannot be fairly evaluated until the second season.” — Makakilo
The odds are 80% that this season Eduardo Rodriguez will perform worse than an ERA of 3.30, and the odds are 60% that next season he will perform better than an ERA of 3.30. Nevertheless, I wrote, “My optimistic view is that he will be the one in five senior starters who perform better his first season with a new team.”
For details about senior pitchers who change teams, see this AZ Snake Pit article.
Spencer: When he actually completes an MLB start without injury, I’ll allow myself to have an opinion.
Dano: I didn’t get to see much of him in spring training, and spring training is nothing like the real thing, especially for veteran starters. So I have no idea whatsoever. Ask me again before I go to bed on Tuesday or whenever.
Ben: At the moment, the D-Backs could just use someone who can reliably give 5+ IP every five days to give the bullpen some kind of break. If he can do that, I’ll say my expectations were met. I just truly don’t know what else to expect from a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in nearly a year at this point.
Paul Sewald is no longer the closer. What’s your reaction?
James: Meh. He was never an elite closer, so he was always a bad month away from no longer being a closer. This season will be the end of Sewald’s time with Arizona, so it is probably a bit of a blessing that they start grooming a new closer to take over. Regardless of Sewald’s title though, the team needs him to find the strike zone again, and in a hurry. The team’s fortunes continue to hang on his ability to be a competitive choice.
Wesley: I wish they would have sold high and traded him to be honest. I know that’s not realistic, but his downfall seemed inevitable
Justin: I think it is good. I feel bad for him, but he is not a regular shut down pitcher, nor a flame thrower. Reliever volatility and all that.
Makakilo: In May and June, he allowed zero earned runs in 17 out of 18 games (plus the Diamondbacks won that 18th game). He was everything the Diamondbacks could want in a closer.
Then July happened. He allowed zero earned runs in only 6 out of 12 games. In his last 10 batters faced, six of the batters reached base (3 hits and 3 walks). The strange thing is that those 3 walks on 31 July broke a streak of 40 consecutive batters without a walk.
Maybe batters adjusted to Sewald and he can respond to their adjustment. I want to believe he can bounce back to how he pitched in May and June, but July was so bad that my confidence level is only medium to low. A few Baseball Savant stats (showing how bad) are in the following table.
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In August, I saw encouraging results. Twice, he pitched one scoreless inning against the Pirates (8th inning and 6th inning). In those two innings, he allowed a total of only 1 hit and 1 walk.
Spencer: I expect he’ll be closer again by mid September.
Dano: I’m glad that he has been removed from that role for the time being. Clearly something was wrong, whether physical, mechanical, psychological, or some combination of the above. His two outings this weekend were very heartening–he seemed to have his mojo back, and he put up zeroes, and didn’t melt down this afternoon when he gave up that double. Like Spencer, I expect to see him back in that role again, assuming he continues to work stuff out in non-save situations.
Ben: Sadly, mostly relief. As Dano said, I don’t know if it’s psychological, physical, or something else, but July was extremely rough as a fan and as a viewer. He often looked like he was lost or not confident in his pitches and it seemed to translate to his performance. It’s worth pointing out that through all that ugliness, he still had six scoreless outings in the month. Of course, he also had five outings where he gave up more than one run so it’s difficult to come away too positively. As James mentioned as well, this is Sewald’s final season under contract with the D-Backs and he’s pitching his way out of a contract and maybe even a qualifying offer depending on how the final stretch goes.
The Chicago White Sox have lost 20 games in a row. How would that make you feel if the D-backs did it?
James: We have seen some terrible Diamondbacks teams over the years. Outside of constant calls for the entire organization to be fired, I expect that three would be much ennui. THere would be precious little, if anything, to get excited about - outside of the occasional historic performance by a player (RJ’s perfect-o comes to mind). I would likely be doing daily updates on just how pathetic the team is and be taking wagers on whether or not the team will set the single-season loss record.
Justin: The Dbacks kind of did that at one point, they had a 17 game losing streak in 2021 lol. Much despair.
Makakilo: I would feel awful. Not only would I stay optimistic about a comeback, but I would put my roundtable comments in an article like this AZ Snake Pit article from last season (when the Diamondbacks came back to reach the playoffs, allowing them to advance to the World Series)!
Wesley: It’s actually impressive that the White Sox are THAT bad. They had to have a firestorm of literally everything going wrong from top to bottom to get to this point. Personally, I find it hilarious, and I’d still
Dano: I’d be pretty miserable, but I expect I would continue to write about their games once a week, and it would actually be an interesting challenge to see if I could write recaps that were actually worth reading and said something meaningful about the team as the losses continued to pile up. My capacity for and command of gallows humor would grow fearsomely strong, I imagine.
Ben: It would be awful and painful to witness, but at least it would be memorable through the pain and there’s always the chance that one day/game will be the one to break the streak. I want to be as sympathetic and gracious as possible since there will be a losing streak again for the D-Backs and I want the baseball gods to be merciful when it comes.
If you could participate in any Olympic sport, which would be a) most fun, and b) your best chance at not embarrassing yourself?
James: Most fun would probably be something like trampoline or high dive. I love the adrenaline rush produced from free falling. Best chance of not embarrassing myself would have to be baseball. I’m 20+ years past my prime, but I can still hit a round ball with a round bat - at speed. As such, I might actually be able to eek out a hit before my team was eliminated from group play.
Justin: I don’t know about most fun, but the thing I would most want to do would be Ice Hockey for USA. I know, shocker that I picked hockey. I always have liked horses and my step sister competitively does barrel racing. If I knew how to ride, maybe one of the equestrian events might be interesting.
Best chance at not embarrassing myself? Maybe some of the shooting sports, just because I had the archery and rifle merit badges in the BSA. So at least there is a tiny amount of experience? Actually, I can do roller hockey and played street hockey as a teen, so maybe Field Hockey?
Makakilo: Curling! It looks incredibly fun! Sliding stones across the ice (sometimes with spin) to either hit other stones and/or be strategically placed would be fun. Each team has 4 people, with 2 people active in each slide (the slider and the sweeper who changes the stone’s path and speed). The outcome of each slide has significant unpredictability, making being embarrassed less likely.
Spencer: I’m with Mak. Curling. Or pickleball.
Dano: Yup, curling. Both for fun and for relative potential competence. I starting watching it in the Winter Olympics as a laugh, but I wound up being really fascinated by the underlying strategic and tactical choices and challenges. Curling is cool.
Ben: I think most fun would be something like surfing where you’re outside, on the water, and just trying to do things that look cool. I’ve literally never been on a surfboard however so my chances of doing anything productive would be pretty minimal. My best chance for not embarrassing myself would probably be either the triathlon or swimming since I swam in undergrad and picked up triathlons since grad school.
Jim: I feel I could do somewhat well in shooting. Albeit the basic stuff from a reasonable distance, not sub-events like trap. I used to be decent at Duck Hunt, so how different can it possibly be? :) I feel handball would be a lot of fun to play. Well, for the 20-30 seconds before my lungs wave the white flag and give up!