Mathieu van der Poel is predicting a "nervous and hectic" day as the Tour de France returns to the famous cobbles for a stage described as a "small Paris-Roubaix".
For the first time since 2018, the Tour peloton will be forced to negotiate significant sections of pavé on Stage 5, with a 157km route from Lille to Arenberg including 11 distinct cobbled sections.
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It will provide a major early test of potential General Classification contenders, many of whom have not raced Paris-Roubaix and are thus unproven on the cobbles.
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Van der Poel, however, will shape as a likely contender for the stage - the Dutchman finished third on debut at Paris-Roubaix in 2021 and is one of the finest bike-handlers in the race.
The Alpecin-Deceuninck rider has been notably subdued during the opening four stages of the Tour, with suggestions he may have been saving himself for a prominent role on the pavé.
"I think now the real racing can start," Van der Poel said ahead of Stage 5.
"It's just a really small Paris-Roubaix. It's not a lot of sections here but for sure it's like every time they'll run up into the section is going to be more nervous than the sections itself.
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"I think it's just going to be really nervous. If you already can stay out of out of trouble and don't have a mechanical, I think you can already go far."
While a typical Paris-Roubaix field would be comprised almost entirely of the hardiest classicists and sprinters, the nature of a Tour de France peloton means many racers will take on the cobbles of northern France for the first time.
On the race's last visit to the unforgiving roads four years ago, John Degenkolb took victory on a day that, while crash-strewn, did not produce significant gaps in the chase for the yellow jersey.
More decisive, however, was the 2014 visit to the region, when Vincenzo Nibali seized control of the general classification in wet and wild conditions en route to eventual victory.
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Van der Poel believes the likely desire of the overall contenders to be at the front of the race when it hits the cobbles should make Stage 5 even more "hectic".
"That's what's difficult about the Tour and other Grand Tours as well," Van der Poel explained. "The GC guys also want to be there in front, and that makes it really nervous and hectic.
"In the end we have the stage win to play for, but they can lose a lot more so it's understandable that it's quite nervous."
Wout van Aert, Van der Poel's great rival, extended his margin at the top of the general classification with a superlative solo victory in the yellow jersey on Stage Four.
Van Aert and Jumbo-Visma attacked on the final climb with 10 kilometres to go until the finish in Calais, producing a coordinated offensive that few in the peloton were able to match.
It was, however, the sort of attack that would typically be marked by van der Poel, so often glued to the Belgian's wheel in the spring, and Eurosport expert Adam Blythe believes the Dutchman may have been held back by Alpecin-Deceuninck with an eye on Stage 5 - though Blythe wonders whether keeping Van der Poel's powder dry for a stage that could be entirely unpredictable might be proved unwise.
"Mathieu what the hell is going on? Where’s Van der Poel?” asked Blythe on The Breakaway after Van Aert's Stage 4 win.
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“That was perfect for him today for a while. Where was he? I get this feeling that the team’s holding him back – I really get the feeling.
“They’re holding him back for a stage that is such a gamble. He could go into that cobbles, first section tomorrow, [get a] double flat, [and] never see front again.
“He’s wasted four days of ‘trying something’. For me you can’t hold a guy like that back.
“You can’t just say, ‘forget about all the other stages’. Today we know he would have been there if tomorrow wasn’t on the cards but what’s the difference in holding Mathieu van der Poel back?
“It's Van der Poel - let him go play!”
There are four former Paris-Roubaix winners set to start in Lille: Dylan van Baarle (winner in 2022), Philippe Gilbert (2019), Peter Sagan (2018) and Degenkolb (2015).
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