Previewing UVA basketball’s Monday night meeting with Coppin State

The Virginia Cavaliers will welcome another mid-major to JPJ on Monday night as Coppin State returns to Charlottesville.

UVA took care of an overmatched, yet pesky Campbell team in the season opener, 65-56. Coppin State, picked to finish last in the MEAC, is not expected to offer the same challenge. The Eagles are ranked in the bottom five in Torvik’s full Division 1 rankings, and unlike the Fighting Camels, do not have a history of challenging power conference teams.

In the Tony Bennett era, Coppin State played UVA twice: a 97-40 thumping in 2018-19 and a more modest 68-52 Cavaliers victory in 2021-22. This year, the Eagles are already 0-3, with losses to Wake Forest, High Point, and Rider, all by double digit margins.

Time: Monday, November 11 at 7:00 PM EST

Watch: ACCNX or ESPN+

Three Things to Know

A foundation is being built in Larry Stewart’s program

Stewart, who was a legendary Coppin State player in the late 80’s, got hired to rebuild the program in the 2023 offseason. His first year was brutal; due to injuries and overall lack of talent, the lineup was constantly getting shuffled and the Eagles ended up winning just two games total. Coppin State’s one double digit scorer, Justin Watson, moved on, as well.

At the very least, things could only go up from here. The Eagles roster was filled with freshmen and five of them return to play significant minutes. Stewart filled out some holes with transfers such as Julius Ellerbe III from Eastern Michigan and Derrius Ward from the NAIA level.

Nothing about Coppin State stands out but putting things into context, they could improve vastly from last year and still be a sub-300 ranked team.

Expect to see a decent amount of zone defense

Coppin State played zone defense on 32.0% of possessions last year, which was the 13th highest rate nationally, per Synergy.

Was it more due to Coppin State’s lack of size and athleticism, their vast amount of youth, or Stewart’s ingrained defensive philosophy? We are not sure. But, against an opponent like Virginia, we can assume that these trends will stay consistent. In other words, I’m sure Stewart would rather make the ‘Hoos beat them from the outside, rather than try to match up individually.

Coppin State did end up keeping things respectable against Wake Forest because they forced 12 turnovers, many of which were live ball ones. High Point, on the other hand, torched the Eagles’ zone with threes from the corner off of simple drive and kick concepts.

If there is a game for Virginia to have an offensive surge, it has to be this one. Isaac McKneely should be licking his chops watching Coppin State film.

This might be a good game to ignite Virginia’s transition offense

In addition to shooting 36.1% on two-pointers and 21.1% on three-pointers to date, the Eagles have turned the ball over on over 20% of possessions. Wake had several wide open transition threes and dunks against Coppin State. I would love to see Ron Sanchez let Virginia loose as well.

Of course, there’s a difference between being opportunistic off of turnovers and being overaggressive to a fault. That said, the ‘Hoos have historically played to such the opposite extreme that I’d be okay with them occasionally giving the ball back if it means they push the pace more.

You have a step on your man after a steal? A 3-on-2 opens up after a rebound? Take it! I want to see some electricity from the Cavaliers in this contest.

Two Players To Watch

SF Derrius Ward (#11)

Although Ward spent last season at the NAIA ranks, he brings experience leading a college basketball team, something that is rare on this Coppin State roster. The 6’6”, 205-pound wing has done a bulk of the scoring so far for the Eagles.

Ward was advertised as an athletic guard with great court vision and a respectable outside shot. At Coppin State, however, he seems to have the full green light. Ward showed off his range against Wake, nailing three triples in 19 point effort, while he made more of his living getting to the basket with 18 against Rider.

In a night that the Eagles will likely be desperate for offensive production, look for Ward to predominantly have the ball in his hands.

PF Julius Ellerbe III (#6)

Ellerbe is listed as a guard on the official Coppin State roster, but he has been primarily used in the middle of their zone defensively. The Washington DC native had good rebounding numbers at Eastern Michigan, and secured eight boards in 34 minutes in the season opener.

It does appear that the 6’7” senior has been dealing with an injury, as he did not play in Saturday’s contest against Rider. If he is out again, look for sophomore Khalil Horton (#4) to anchor the paint.

Regardless of matchup, both Blake Buchanan and Jacob Cofie should have their way. It would be great to see both on the court at the same time in large doses, considering the flashes of big-to-big passing they showed in the Campbell game. Especially with TJ Power not appearing to be as ready to make an impact as many of us expected, it will be pivotal for the Cofie/Buchanan duo to build chemistry.

One Prediction

I can’t emphasize this enough. Campbell was gritty and had some redeeming qualities. On the other hand, if Virginia struggles in any way with Coppin State, they are in deep trouble.

My expectation is a smooth-sailing UVA victory on Monday night.

Prediction: Virginia 77, Coppin State 45