Who Has the Edge in the WNBA Rookie of the Year Race?

The Caitlin Clark–Angel Reese rivalry isn’t ending anytime soon. This week, one of them will be awarded the WNBA Rookie of the Month award for June and, in turn, set off another round of discourse about the two players. Until now, that discourse has largely focused on comments made off the court, the severity of fouls, and league ticket sales and ignored what the two remarkable rookies have accomplished on the court. But in June, both Reese and Clark took their games to new levels.

Reese had a double-double in 10 of the 11 games she played last month, as her scoring average increased by 3.5 points and her rebounding average jumped from a solid 8.2 per game to a league-leading 13.2 in June. Forget about Rookie of the Month: Those numbers are good enough to garner consideration for Player of the Month. Clark, meanwhile, averaged over 15 points, five rebounds, and five assists in June, just the fourth time in WNBA history that a rookie has hit those benchmarks over the course of a month. After pulling off the same feat in May, Clark now has two out of those four instances. And she did all that while improving her shooting percentages, cutting down on turnovers, and leading the Fever to a 7-4 record.

Whether Clark repeats as Rookie of the Month or Reese ends up getting the award, last month showed that the race for WNBA Rookie of the Year remains tight and will only get more interesting as these two—along with a few other notable rookies—continue to elevate their respective games. With just a few weeks before the WNBA goes on its Olympic break, let’s check in on the players in that race and where things currently stand.

Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever (FanDuel ROY Odds: -600)

Clark capped off a historically prolific first half of her rookie season on Sunday with a win over the Phoenix Mercury and the greatest WNBA player of all time, Diana Taurasi. That’s an official title, by the way. This wasn’t necessarily a passing-of-the-torch moment–-the 42-year-old is not considered the league’s best active player—but it had to feel satisfying for Clark to beat someone who was seen as one of her more vocal skeptics heading into the season.

“Reality is coming,” Taurasi told ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt back in April after Iowa took down the UConn Huskies in the Final Four. “There’s levels to this thing. And that’s just life. We all went through it. You see it on the NBA side, and you’re going to see it on this side. You look superhuman playing against 18-year-olds, but you’re going to [play against] some grown women that have been playing professional basketball for a long time.”

Early in Sunday’s game in Phoenix, the grown women on the Mercury gave Clark issues. Kahleah Copper, a three-time WNBA All-Star, hounded Clark on the defensive end, and that pressure led to some early turnovers and an early 17-4 hole for Indiana. But as she had done after a slow start to the season, Clark relaxed, she stopped trying to force passes and shots that weren’t open, and everything fell into place.

In the Fever’s 88-84 win, the rookie guard finished just one rebound shy of making history as the first rookie to record a triple-double. That helped her finish the month of June with a 15/6/7 line on 41 percent shooting. As Clark’s shot volume has gone down over the past few weeks, her quality of play has improved across the board. In her last six games, Clark ranks in the top 20 leaguewide in points (14th), rebounds (13th), assists (first), steals (20th), and blocks (19th), per WNBA Stats. She’s making 46.4 percent of her shots from the field and over 40 percent of her attempts from 3.

Taurasi’s comments from April now look a bit silly, but that’s largely because they were misrepresented in the first place. Van Pelt’s question was not about Clark specifically, but rather the entire draft class, which included a handful of high-profile prospects. And Taurasi’s answer was more nuanced than the “reality is coming” sound bite that got so much attention. She added this after that initial comment:

“Not saying it’s not gonna translate, because when you’re great at what you do, you’re just gonna get better. But there is gonna be a transition period where you’re gonna have to give yourself some grace as a rookie.”

Clark is still working through that transition period and has had to sacrifice some of the scoring that captured the basketball world’s attention during her time at Iowa. So far in the WNBA, she’s acting mostly as a 3-point shooter and distributor. She’ll need to add a midrange game to reassert herself as an elite scorer, and she’ll have to get stronger to better handle the on-ball pressure she sees on a nightly basis. Clark leads the WNBA in turnovers, and while her teammates have been responsible for some of them, most of her giveaways are due to suspect handles and overly ambitious passes. You can watch all of them here and judge for yourself.

But even with Clark’s bloated turnover totals dragging down her efficiency, it’s clear that she has been the WNBA’s best rookie so far this season. She leads all rookies in just about every statistical category outside of rebounding. She has Indiana in line to make the playoffs after finishing with the league’s worst record a season ago. And even when you widen the scope and compare her rookie season to those of the best players in the league, Clark stands out.

So much of the conversation around Clark’s first pro season has focused on her early struggles against physical play and other topics that have little to do with basketball that it’s been easy to overlook the evolution in her game. Clark isn’t just exceeding ridiculously lofty expectations; she’s doing so in unexpected ways.

Angel Reese, Chicago Sky (+400)

That we’re even discussing the Rookie of the Year race right now is a testament to Reese’s performance. In any other season, Clark would have run away with the award already, but the seventh pick has kept pace by becoming the league’s most reliable double-double machine. In a close loss to Minnesota on Sunday, Reese notched her 10th straight double-double, setting a WNBA record, and became the league leader in rebounds. That capped off a month in which she averaged 14.5 points and 13.2 rebounds per game while also serving as Chicago’s best on-ball defender.

I could write thousands of words on Reese’s rebounding and defensive prowess, but those aspects of her game have been covered extensively. Instead, I want to focus on her offensive prowess, which has been largely overlooked due to her poor shooting percentage. Reese is shooting under 40 percent from the field—a bad number for any player but especially bad for one who attempts most of her shots around the rim. But throwing up bricks hasn’t been the issue for Reese. It’s actually getting the shots to the rim—per WNBA Stats, the undersized power forward has had over a fifth of her shot attempts blocked this season, which leads the league by a comfortable margin.

When Reese isn’t getting her shots swatted, she’s a decently efficient shooter. She has stepped out and made a few midrange shots, and her free throw percentage was in the 80s over June, suggesting that the left-hander has a solid touch; she just needs to tap into it more.

But even if Reese never develops into a reliable shooter, her dynamic skill set will allow her to make an impact on the offensive end. While her size can be a weakness around the rim, Reese takes advantage of it when she pulls bigger defenders out to the perimeter.

Contrary to popular belief, Reese isn’t getting her buckets from offensive rebounds. Most of her makes look like the clip above, where she gets the ball near the elbow or high post and drives around bigger defenders to get to the rim. She’s also a solid passer from those areas of the court, which has allowed Sky coach Teresa Weatherspoon to play Reese and Kamilla Cardoso at the same time despite the spacing concerns created by two non-shooting bigs and a starting lineup with weak perimeter shooting.

Reese’s activity on defense also helps create points for the offensively challenged Sky. The former LSU star can play out on the perimeter, where she spearheads an aggressive Sky defense. Her length and relentless effort stir up all sorts of shit for opposing offenses and transition opportunities for Chicago. Reese has no problem dusting slower bigs down the court in those situations and finishing breaks she started on the defensive end.

Putting the ball in the hoop is still the most important thing in the sport, so the rest of Reese’s offensive game will need to improve if she’s going to become an All-WNBA player one day. But her current skill set is already All-Star worthy. That’s rare air for a rookie—even if it likely won’t be enough to beat out Clark for the award.

Aaliyah Edwards, Washington Mystics (+15000)

The race for third place in this group is just as competitive as the race for the top, with Edwards, Cardoso, and Sparks guard Rickea Jackson all vying for the spot. I give the edge to Edwards, who has been the most well-rounded player of that group. Among rookies, the Mystics forward ranks fourth in scoring, third in rebounds, and second in blocks.

A lot of Edwards’s production has come as a roller in pick-and-roll situations, where she can use her strength to ward off trailing defenders and get shots up at the rim. Eventually, Edwards will have to develop a deeper bag of offensive tricks—over 80 percent of her makes have been assisted—but if she can add an 18-foot jump shot to her game, she could score at an elite level throughout her career.

Edwards is already a good defender, as we saw over the weekend when Washington nearly upset the defending champion Aces. Outside of the injured Cameron Brink, Edwards is the only rookie averaging over a block per game.

Edwards and the Mystics looked like world-beaters in the first half against Vegas but eventually ran out of ideas on the offensive end. It was an encouraging but incomplete performance for Washington and its rookie, which is a good way of describing Edwards’s season thus far.

Rickea Jackson, Los Angeles Sparks (+15000)

If I had to bet my life on a rookie’s ability to get a bucket, Jackson would be the person I’d take. The Sparks guard ranks third in scoring among rookies, at 10.1 points per game on only 24 minutes and eight attempts. She can shoot it from deep, but her midrange game stands out. Jackson is most effective when she gets a ball screen in the middle of the court, which creates space for her pull-up jumper off the bounce.

But Jackson is far down on this list for a reason, and it’s the same reason that she’s spent a lot of time on the bench during fourth quarters: Outside of scoring, she’s not bringing much to the table. Jackson doesn’t rebound well for her size, she’s committed more turnovers (32) than she has assists (15), and she’s tallied just 13 steals and blocks combined over the first 18 games of her pro career.

Jackson may be a one-dimensional player at this point in her development, but at least she’s damn good at that dimension.

Kamilla Cardoso, Chicago Sky (+20000)

I would have loved to use this space to explain how Cardoso’s impact extends beyond her point and rebound averages, but that’s not really the case … at least so far. Cardoso’s height (6-foot-7) remains her biggest asset in the WNBA, as she has yet to develop touch outside of the restricted area. She’s shooting 52 percent within 5 feet of the basket but just over 14 percent from everywhere else on the court. She doesn’t grab rebounds outside of her general vicinity and doesn’t have enough mobility as a defender to block a high number of shots. But thanks to being the tallest player on the court, she still performs well in both statistical categories.

Cardoso isn’t a highly skilled player at this point, but it’s clear she understands some of the most important aspects of the game. She has a good feel for space around the basket and how to put herself in scoring positions, which has provided her more creative teammates—such as Chennedy Carter and Reese—with outlets when their drives are thwarted. And Cardoso’s chemistry with Reese in the high-low game suggests that these two will be a force in this league for a long time.