Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Game 1 was discouraging for Minnesota on several levels. Here's the biggest: they made three times as many 3-pointers as Dallas (18 vs. six) and still lost. That's not a margin they can expect to persist. Jaden McDaniels had never made six 3s in a game before Game 1. Minnesota probably doesn't even want Anthony Edwards taking 12 of them. What Dallas did offensively, specifically when it comes to Luka Doncic operating against Minnesota's drop-coverage, is far more sustainable than Minnesota's 3-point bombing, so I'll gladly take the points here in what I'd expect to be another reasonably close game. The Pick: Mavericks +5
So far this postseason, the Timberwolves have dominated Game 2s defensively. They allowed Phoenix to score only 93 points in the second game of their first-round series. They then held Denver to 80 in the second round despite missing Rudy Gobert. The hangover of the Denver series will likely have passed. It's a must-win game for Minnesota after losing Game 1 at home, and their defensive intensity should be dialed up to 11. Meanwhile, If Minnesota only scored 104 points in Game 1 despite making 18 3s, it's hard to be too optimistic about their offense in this matchup. The Pick: Under 207.5
Shot-selection almost has to be a point of emphasis for Anthony Edwards going into Game 2. He took 12 3-pointers but only four 2s. Granted, the Mavericks have done an excellent job of walling off the paint this postseason, and even Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the league's most prolific driver, had to adjust against them. But I'm expecting a much more balanced shot diet in Game 2 after the Timberwolves have adjusted to what the Mavericks threw at them in Game 1. That means fewer 3-point tries, and therefore makes. The Pick: Edwards Under 3.5 3-Pointers