Anyone who’s watched the Portland Trail Blazers play over the last few weeks can say with some certainty that their season has taken a turn for the worse. “Fallen off a cliff” may be more like it. They’ve lost 10 of their last 12 games, including 6 straight as we speak.
Given this turn of events—and the accompanying 19-52 record—more and more readers are starting to question Head Coach Chauncey Billups. Some have specific issues, but most are worried about the trajectory of the team and his fitness to helm it. That’s the subject of today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
Dave,
As we come down to the end of the season talk to me about Chauncey. How do you think he’s done? Do you think he’ll survive the summer? You don’t talk much about coaching in your analysis but I really want to hear your take.
Herb
This is always a tough subject, particularly in a season like this one. I’ll reiterate some of the things I’ve said prior, because they’re important caveats.
- The Blazers are swimming upstream against a flooding river of injuries and superior opponents. They have been for the past two months and more. Their veterans have played intermittently. Their best young talents have been in and out as well. In that situation, it doesn’t matter how good your swimming coach is. The environment will overcome even a perfect stroke in the water.
- Portland has far from the perfect stroke. They’re not fully-formed and probably won’t be for at least two years. They’re stocked with inexperienced players, many on the margins of NBA utility. No amount of coaching will change that either.
- Billups still has a couple years left on his current contract. The final year is a team option, but up to this point the Blazers have presumably been reticent to chase good money with bad. Releasing Billups for another coach wouldn’t really solve the problem. They’d end up paying two salaries for the same slim results. That may change this summer. Obviously all bets are off in the Summer of 2025, when Billups can be dismissed without penalty.
Because of these factors, up until now, my refrain has remained steady. There’s been no reason to fire Billups, but no real reason to keep him either.
Given the trajectory of the team and Billups’ dwindling contract, the situation may be changing. Rather than discuss whether the Blazers should dismiss Billups, let’s talk about what kind of coach they’d want to replace him with.
Billups isn’t a bad developmental coach. He seems relatable to the players. He’s also pretty consistent in teaching while he’s coaching, often pulling players aside to offer correction. Those are good qualities.
Completely absent is any sense of system or organization as a whole. The Blazers are running something out there, but it ends up looking like leftover Cream o’ Wheat.
This brings up the old trope of “basketball” coach versus “players” coach. It’s overdrawn, and both ends of the equation need to be covered. It’s no good to hire a brilliant basketball mind who can’t relate to the players at all. A relatable coach who can’t muster his charges into coherent performances is just as bad.
Still, it’s not inaccurate to say that coaches do tend towards one end of the spectrum or the other. And Billups certainly appears to be a players’ coach. He’s not alone in that; it’s the mode of the day.
It hasn’t always been so. The classic NBA setup had a hard-nosed basketball coach in the center seat, with relatable, teaching assistants around him. That has morphed in recent years, as more and more former players become head coaches, with clusters of video geeks and specialists around them to advise.
Given Portland’s age and developmental stage, they might need a head coach heavy on the basketball system and discipline, assisted by former players and others who can help the team acclimate, rather than a guy who can impart wisdom about the league but can’t actually help them win there.
Almost all of the former players who become coaches have taken that route because the teams they played for had success. Those teams prospered because of talent. Knowing how to coax the best out of an ultra-talented squad isn’t Portland’s issue. Basic basketball is.
I’d prefer someone who had to look across a roster of college recruits or mid-level pro players, then convince everyone to trust in the system, the discipline, the process. Repetition and organization are the basic building blocks of ethos and culture. The Blazers need heavy doses of those. Even if their play style can’t produce wins yet, they should at least be known for something. Besides being nice guys, that is.
Of former Blazers coaches, Nate McMillan and PJ Carlisemo come to mind easily. Nate was a former player who took a strong hand in player and team identity both. Carlisemo was a pure basketball mind who knew how to coax the edge out of his players (whether they liked it or not). I’m not suggesting Portland hire either one, but that style of coach would probably fit this team better than the Chauncey Billups/Maurice Cheeks mold. You can extrapolate any number of current NBA coaches who might fit the pattern. Any one of them might be better over the next three years than Billups.
If the Blazers are going to make a change, Portland’s average roster age might argue for doing it sooner rather than later. Their young players have already spent a season in limbo. Wasting another, especially a presumed lame-duck season for the head coach, would not help. In essence, Scoot Henderson would be starting over in his third year, having to re-learn how to do this thing after struggling through two years of muck. The 2024 rookies would also lose a season to the transition.
Again, though, we have to rewind back to the reality of the current environment. Coach Billups and his staff could sit down with all of us and explain exactly what system they’re trying to run, also why it isn’t working. Those reasons would be the same we listed above. It’s not fair to blame Billups for this turn of events. It is accurate to say it’s not working, and that perhaps a little more established regimen and philosophy would be beneficial for a team, and young players, who seem to be adrift.
If the Blazers do make a move this summer, I expect them to look for a coach with experience who can coordinate as much as inspire, and who’s ready to lift this rag-tag group of youngsters into more than they’re naturally prepared to be. That doesn’t just take knowledge of them and the league, but of the game itself.
Thanks for the question! You can send yours to [email protected] and we’ll try to get to as many as possible!