ACC Betting Preview: ¿Apuestas por el menor? ACC Betting Preview: Bet the Under?

148 would be an instant take on the under, but here at 144.5, I still like it. For this to hit over with the spread, Pitt would have to score over 75 points, something they’ve only done once on the road all year. Florida State is the type of team that will let a team score that much, but I just don’t see it happening. While I’d feel a little more comfortable with this total higher than 145, I still think this game can come close to the upper 130’s like the last time these two faced off.

An all under week? Not so fast. Boston College is usually known for slowing you down and mucking it up, but they’ve shown recently that they can keep up with teams scoring. NC State will want to push and should be able to get close to their tempo. Further, I like teams to fare better offensively the game after they play against Virginia, so NC State should find an easier time scoring against the Eagles. I’ll zag here and take an over.

Teams with below average pace, check. Neither teams excels on the offensive glass, check. Neither team turns it over, check. Neither team turns you over, check. This game has all the makings for an under. Given the keys above, I am surprised each team is able to score like they do. But that just tells me they’re ok playing the other teams’ tempo. Expect a lot of single-shot possessions and for the game clock to move quickly. Both teams are capable of getting hot from three, but unless they do that, 143 is too high.

Total or the points? Total or the points? Why is UNC favored by seven here? It’s just too many points. Clemson probably isn’t the best team in the ACC as their conference standing suggests, but they’re certainly not worthy of getting seven against a middle of the pack ACC team. But once again, I’m looking at the total here. North Carolina just isn’t the free and loose offensive juggernaut we’re used to seeing. Sure, they’re still really good down low and good at generating second chance points, but I have a hard time trusting them in high total games as they’re shooting just 30% from three. Clemson’s defense forces their opponents into taking 41% of their shots from beyond the arc, so if they can do that to UNC and the Heel’s aren’t hitting, this one won't get too out of hand.

Now, for the only game with a KenPom total prediction not in the 140s. Duke travels to Virginia in a game that doesn’t have the luster it’s had in recent years. In big games, Duke has been able to play lower scoring affairs, but it’s not necessarily due to their improved defense. This Duke team struggles to score. However, this isn’t a Virginia team that’s beating teams with their defense (unless you’re NC State who ran the “I’m going keep trying to play fast and run into this brick wall and see if anything changes” offense). Duke will be able to get theirs. Kyle Filipowski, despite shooting 28% from three on the year, will manage to can six triples, but Virginia will be able to keep up. A spread around six opens the door for foul shots at the end, so I think this one goes over.

At Wake -13, this outcome has to be 80-67 or so. Georgia Tech has scored more than 67 points just three times all year in ACC and one of those came in overtime (the other two were in games they won). Wake on the other hand can score, but with a spread over double digits against a team that won’t push tempo and will struggle scoring themselves, I like the under. Like the Duke/Virginia game above, the point differential can make a huge difference in late game fouling situations. In a 4-8 point game, expect lots of fouling. On the flip side, in blowouts teams usually play out the final couple minutes of game time once the game is in hand. Given the 13 point spread and a total near 150, I like this game to stay under.