The good news is that the Mariners were able to cling to their slim two-game lead in the AL West through no fault of their own — thanks to the Twins, the Astros’ rise up the standings was slowed somewhat last weekend. The bad news is that the M’s couldn’t take advantage of Houston’s hiccup, they suffered through what was quite possibly their worst loss of the season on Sunday, and all of a sudden, the Rangers are surging up the standings with a four-game win streak. The Mariners desperately need some sort of spark to maintain their advantage in the standings and maybe this California road trip will be just the ticket.
At a Glance
| Mariners | Padres |
|---|---|
| Mariners | Padres |
| Game 1 | Tuesday, July 9 | 6:40 pm |
| RHP Logan Gilbert | RHP Adam Mazur |
| 54% | 46% |
| Game 2 | Wednesday, July 10 | 3:40 pm |
| RHP Bryce Miller | RHP Michael King |
| 44% | 56% |
Team Overview
| Overview | Padres | Mariners | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overview | Padres | Mariners | Edge |
| Batting (wRC+) | 114 (2nd in NL) | 93 (12th in AL) | Padres |
| Fielding (FRV) | -8 (9th) | 2 (9th) | Mariners |
| Starting Pitching (FIP-) | 102 (8th) | 92 (3rd) | Mariners |
| Bullpen (FIP-) | 97 (8th) | 95 (5th) | Mariners |
Awkwardly positioned as “natural rivals” by the MLB schedule-makers, the Mariners and Padres have paired up in a split home-and-home series in nearly every season since 2015 — the pandemic-shortened season in 2020 and 2021, the last season with an unbalanced schedule, were the two exceptions. Overall, Seattle is winning the Vedder Cup 65-62 and has won the season series the last two years.
After ascending out of their long rebuilding cycle with a playoff appearance in 2020, the Padres have frustratingly made just one other follow up postseason appearance, reaching the NLCS in 2022. This despite plenty of investment from ownership and aggressive trading on the part of PBO and GM A.J. Preller. They’ve already made a couple of bold moves this year, acquiring Dylan Cease just ahead of the start of the season and then adding Luis Arraez in May. They’re currently in the middle of a crowded NL Wild Card race and have been playing solid baseball since a slow start to the season in April.
Padres Lineup
| Player | Position | Bats | PA | K% | BB% | ISO | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Position | Bats | PA | K% | BB% | ISO | wRC+ |
| Luis Arraez | 1B | L | 400 | 5.8% | 3.8% | 0.069 | 110 |
| Jurickson Profar | LF | S | 372 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 0.183 | 163 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | L | 381 | 17.1% | 7.6% | 0.171 | 121 |
| Manny Machado | 3B | R | 356 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 0.152 | 110 |
| Donovan Solano | DH | R | 170 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 0.117 | 120 |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | L | 331 | 16.9% | 4.5% | 0.163 | 122 |
| David Peralta | RF | L | 81 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 0.082 | 87 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | R | 364 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 0.155 | 108 |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | R | 119 | 31.1% | 4.2% | 0.307 | 119 |
The Padres are currently without their second best hitter, as Fernando Tatis Jr. has been sidelined with a leg injury since late June. It’s absolutely wild to say that Tatis isn’t San Diego’s best hitter but Jurickson Profar is in the midst of a legitimately wild breakout season. Nearly all of his batted ball peripherals have significantly improved and he’s running the seventh best wRC+ among qualified batters. With Tatis out, Jackson Merrill has done a lot to cover for his absence. Drafted as a shortstop, the 21-year-old rookie was thrown into center field this spring and started the year off slowly as he adapted to big league pitching and a new position. Since the beginning of June, he’s posted a 160 wRC+ with nine home runs.
Probable Pitchers
Updated Stuff+ Explainer
- Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters
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RHP Adam Mazur
| IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
| 26 1/3 | 12.3% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 34.4% | 7.52 | 5.45 |
| Pitch | Frequency | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
| Four-seam | 41.0% | 94.7 | 78 | 52 | 104 | 0.423 |
| Sinker | 3.1% | 93.8 | ||||
| Changeup | 10.7% | 90.0 | 84 | |||
| Curveball | 12.0% | 80.5 | 108 | |||
| Slider | 33.3% | 86.8 | 126 | 80 | 98 | 0.220 |
The Padres’ razor thin starting rotation on top of injuries have forced them to call up Adam Mazur in early June; the Cease trade left him as the most big league ready pitching prospect in San Diego’s organization. He was a second-round college pick in the 2022 draft, giving him a leg up on some of the less developed prospects in the system, and a fantastic minor league season last year elevated his standing too. He ran miniscule walk rates in the minors but has resorted to nibbling around the zone in the big leagues leading to a huge jump in free passes. His slider looks like an above average offering but the rest of his repertoire leaves a lot to be desired.
RHP Michael King
| IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
| 105 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 38.6% | 3.51 | 3.85 |
| Pitch | Frequency | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
| Four-seam | 25.4% | 93.5 | 83 | 97 | 94 | 0.355 |
| Sinker | 25.9% | 92.7 | 86 | 122 | 102 | 0.335 |
| Changeup | 24.5% | 86.5 | 89 | 115 | 129 | 0.256 |
| Slider | 5.2% | 86.2 | 125 | 71 | 76 | 0.436 |
| Sweeper | 19.0% | 81.8 | 125 | 94 | 91 | 0.265 |
Michael King was one of the headlining pitchers who came to the Padres in the big Juan Soto trade back in December. He transitioned from high-leverage bullpen work to the starting rotation last summer and provided nine phenomenal starts for the Yankees down the stretch. He’s continued to start for San Diego and has been a solid pitcher for them this year. The addition of sweeper to his arsenal a few years ago helped him push his strikeout rates well above league average and an improving changeup has given him the deep repertoire to thrive in longer outings.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
| Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
| Mariners | 48-43 | 0.533 | -- | L-W-W-L-L |
| Astros | 46-44 | 0.511 | 2.0 | W-W-W-L-L |
| Rangers | 43-48 | 0.473 | 5.5 | L-W-W-W-W |
| Angels | 37-53 | 0.411 | 11.0 | L-L-W-L-L |
| Athletics | 34-58 | 0.370 | 15.0 | W-W-L-W-L |
AL Leaders & Wild Card Standings
| AL Leaders | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Leaders | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
| Orioles | 57-33 | 0.633 | -- | W-L-W-L-W |
| Guardians | 56-33 | 0.629 | -- | W-L-W-W-L |
| Mariners | 48-43 | 0.533 | -- | L-W-W-L-L |
| AL Wild Card | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
| Yankees | 55-37 | 0.598 | +4.5 | L-L-L-W-L |
| Twins | 52-39 | 0.571 | +2.0 | W-L-W-W-W |
| Red Sox | 49-40 | 0.551 | -- | W-W-W-L-W |
| Royals | 49-43 | 0.533 | 1.5 | W-L-L-L-W |
| Astros | 46-44 | 0.511 | 3.5 | W-W-W-L-L |
As mentioned above, the Astros lost their drama-filled weekend series to the Twins. Seven batters were hit by pitches in the series, and though none of the injuries seemed serious, there was certainly no love lost between those two teams. Houston returns home this week to host the Marlins for three games. The Rangers have suddenly crept up the standings with a sweep of the Rays last weekend and a win against the Angels in the first game of their series in Anaheim yesterday. The two Texas teams are barreling towards a huge showdown this weekend.