After a busy offseason, the Indianapolis Colts are one of the more intriguing teams coming out of the AFC South.
As it currently stands, they are slight favorites to win the division over the Tennessee Titans. It would be the first time since 2014 that the Colts stand atop the division, and if they’re going to accomplish that goal, the X-factors will have to play a major role.
The term “X-factor” gets thrown around a lot in sports. We’re going to define it as Google does. “A variable in a given situation that could have the most significant impact on the outcome.”
The variables in this situation are players on the Colts roster. Recent history tells us how the majority of the players are likely to perform. However, some of them can be the reason the team exceeds expectations if they themselves exceed expectations. If they don’t, it could be another reason why the Colts don’t make that tier jump.
As the Colts aim to end the drought of division titles, these are the X-factors for the upcoming season:
QB Matt Ryan
Syndication: The Indianapolis Star
The quarterback position is a bit unfair to put on this list. It’s the most important position throughout the game. Of course, Ryan’s performance is going to be directly tied to the success (or lack thereof) of the team.
But it’s a bit more than that. Just as Carson Wentz was an X-factor in 2021, the same goes for Ryan. However, it’s slightly different. Where Wentz made his difference by making some shocking, jaw-dropping throws that reminded us all why he continues to get chances, Ryan needs to bring stability.
The peaks and valleys of Wentz’s game ultimately hurt the Colts in the long run. Simply based on his 14-year career, volatility shouldn’t be as big of a concern when it comes to Ryan. Stability is the key here.
With Ryan, the Colts will lean on him to make the layups. Get the ball out quickly, and let the receiving corps work with the ball in their hands. If Ryan can do that while throwing in some big plays here and there, the offense will be much better off for it.
WR Parris Campbell
AP Photo/Wade Payne
Most Colts fans already know what this will be about. Campbell’s potential continues to be put on display during the offseason. It hasn’t mattered, however, because the freak injuries seem to always come around for the former second-round pick.
After another strong offseason of work for Campbell, who’s healthy at this point, there’s no denying he can add another level to the passing game. His game-breaking speed and underrated vision as a ball carrier can be a massive upgrade for the offense.
We know rookie Alec Pierce can shine, but he’s a rookie. Expectations should be tempered, especially since only four Colts rookies since 1980 have hit at least 750 yards in their initial seasons.
Campbell can be the perfect running mate to Michael Pittman Jr. and if we finally see him stay healthy, his impact on the offense could be bigger than we expect.
OT Matt Pryor/Bernhard Raimann
AP Photo/Darryl Webb
It doesn’t really matter who wins the job at left tackle as long as the player that does is capable of holding down the blindside. Most would likely prefer it to be the rookie in Raimann simply because he gives the Colts their best shot at having a long-term left tackle—even if he is already turning 25 years old.
Regardless, the Colts need this position to step up in 2022. The retirement of Anthony Castonzo set the offensive line back a few steps from the elite unit it was during the 2018-2020 seasons. Hopefully, Raimann can step in as that eventual replacement where the Colts don’t have to worry about leaving him on an island.
The addition of Matt Ryan should help. His quick release already makes it easier on the offensive line. The same goes for his ability to make checks and protection calls at the line of scrimmage before the snap, which was something that burdened the offense in 2021.
Whether it’s Pryor or Raimann manning the blindside, this position could be the reason the offensive line returns to its elite status, or it could be why the unit continues to be good-not-great.
DE Kwity Paye
AP Photo/Darryl Webb
Paye found himself on this list last year as a rookie. It’s essentially the same message for him going into Year 2. The only difference now is that he has a full season under his belt as a starter. Even as a first-round pick, the development of edge rushers can take time.
The Colts are expected to let him loose in 2022. He’s likely going to be working mostly as the big end in Gus Bradley’s aggressive front. But his athleticism and burst could be the reason why he becomes the breakout player that a lot of analysts have labeled him as.
The addition of Yannick Ngakoue was a strong move. As long as he stays healthy, we can probably pencil him in for roughly 8.0 sacks. His presence, along with defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, should give Paye plenty of one-on-one looks as offenses are likely to slide protection the other way.
If Paye can break out in the way we believe he can, the Colts defense could certainly make that jump into the next tier.
DL Dayo Odeyingbo
Syndication: The Indianapolis Star
Pass rush. Pass rush. Pass rush. That’s what is likely to make the biggest difference for the Colts defense in 2022.
Finally getting to work in a full offseason after rehabbing his Achilles during his rookie campaign, Odeyingbo could be a significant impact player for the Colts as he enters his second season.
While the Colts certainly need their starters in Paye, Ngakoue and Buckner to be forces when they’re on the field, having additional impact players behind them will be crucial. That’s where Odeyingbo comes in.
With a game that reminds the Colts of Justin Tuck, Odeyingbo can make his presence known both from the edge and the interior. He can work on the left side as the big end or kick inside to the three-technique when the Colts use their NASCAR package.
Odeyingbo only got to be on the field for half of the season in 2021. But now he has the chance to hold a significant role in the rotation of the defensive line, and he can be one of the reasons why the pass rush can make that jump into a higher tier.
CB Isaiah Rodgers
Syndication: The Indianapolis Star
Another young Colts player on the verge of a breakout season is Rodgers. He was quietly one of the most impactful players in the secondary during the 2021 season. After the team traded Rock Ya-Sin to the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason, Rodgers has the chance to take on a whole new role.
While major media outlets look at the cornerback room and assume Rodgers is just another guy, he could be the reason the room takes off in 2022. The addition of Stephon Gilmore will certainly play a role in that, and it’s still unclear what will happen with Kenny Moore’s contract situation. A holdout could be coming if it remains unresolved by training camp time.
But the ascension of Rodgers is a key factor for the Colts defense. We’ll take the optimistic view and assume Moore is on the field come September. If Rodgers breaks out as the No. 3 cornerback and continues to make impact plays on the boundary, the cornerback room suddenly goes from a question mark to a strength.
On top of that, the Colts may need Rodgers even more if Moore’s contract situation does bleed into the regular season.
Regardless, the development of this young cornerback could turn out to be a major factor in the outcome of the 2022 season.
S Nick Cross
AP Photo/Carlos Osorio
The rookie wouldn’t have found himself on this list had it not been for the surprise retirement of starter Khari Willis. But that’s why the NFL offseason is never dull. Now, Cross is viewed as the starter waiting in the wings, and it could come as early as this season.
Not even 21 years old yet, the Colts may have to rely upon the uber-athletic Cross to be a starter in 2022. It may not happen until halfway through the season, but it’s going to happen. They didn’t trade a future third-round pick to see him sit on the bench the entire campaign.
Cross has all of the tools to be an elite talent at the safety position. Yes, you read that correctly. We shouldn’t expect him to reach that status in Year 1. That would be unrealistic. But he certainly will have his opportunities to make a significant impact in the secondary.
Whether he’s working in coverage as a split-zone safety or playing near the line of scrimmage and attacking the ball carrier, Cross can play in either phase of the game.
How much he contributes will be the question because his impact can be substantial if everything goes right.