MLB Preview: Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Prediction

The baseball gods dealt us a brutal blow on Thursday night as our play on the over (8.5 runs) in the Nationals-Phillies game was voided after the game was called in the fifth inning due to rain.

We needed only 4 1/2 innings to get to nine runs for the over, but some bad luck canceled out a surefire victory.

We’ll try to turn the page as the Nationals and Phillies get set for the second game of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Josiah Gray will get the start for the visitors while the Phillies will counter with Kyle Gibson.

Our Action Network indicators are lighting up once again with value on the visiting Nationals.

And while my model agrees this time around, I’ll mix in my own twist on how to approach this matchup on Friday night.

» READ MORE: Friday’s Phillies game won’t be on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds provided by FanDuel

Moneyline: WSH (+166) vs. PHI (-198)

Spread: WSH +1.5 (-114) vs. PHI -1.5 (-105)

Total: Over 9 (-102) | Under 9 (-120)

Josiah Gray (7-7, 4.59 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (6-4, 4.60 ERA)

It’s never as simple as an autoplay whenever you have an edge in a model. I generally like to know the underlying reasons behind my projections and why the market is moving in a specific direction.

In this instance, it’s the head-to-head numbers that stand out most to me.

According to Baseball Savant, in 35 plate appearances, this current Nationals lineup is hitting .258 against Gibson with a .313 wOBA.

Moreover, Washington’s expected numbers are even better, as evidenced by a .339 xBA and .427 xWOBA.

In contrast, Philadelphia’s lineup is hitting just .146 with a .256 wOBA in 53 plate appearances against Gray. And if we look at the expected numbers, the Phillies have a .204 xBA and .337 xWOBA in this spot.

At just 24 years old, Gray leads the Nationals’ pitching staff with seven wins. He’s essentially done more with less, considering that he accounts for 19.4% of the wins on a Nationals team that’s dead last in all of baseball with a 36-71 record.

And although Gray’s advanced metrics point to some regression given his 5.30 FIP, my model does show some value as a +166 underdog.

The Phillies have been hot of late, with seven wins in their past eight games. That’s precisely why I’d limit my action to the first five innings on the runline.

According to our Action Labs database, Gray is 7-2 this season as an underdog on the first five runline for a profit of 3.7 units. In contrast, Gibson is on an 0-3 run as a favorite against the spread in the first five innings.

I think the Nationals are live in this spot, so I’ll take a shot with them on the first five runline at +102 odds.

Nationals F5 RL +0.5 (+102)

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