Over the years at Darlington Raceway, many of the same drivers tend to run up front — Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr., to name a few. This year, however, has belonged to Joey Logano. The No. 22 team will start from the pole for the second straight race at ‘The Lady in Black,’ becoming the first driver to sweep the pole position in both Darlington races since Sterling Marlin in 1992.
MORE: Full fantasy preview for Darlington | Analysis for every playoff driver
This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs begin at Darlington. While 16 drivers (17, including Bubba Wallace driving the No. 45 Toyota in the owner’s bracket) chase a championship, fantasy picks get reset. Over the final 10 races, players can use any driver five times. The rules are the same, aside from the championship race at Phoenix. In alignment with NASCAR points, the four championship-eligible drivers will not earn stage points in the final race.
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Denny Hamlin
Starter 2: Joey Logano
Starter 3: Kyle Larson
Starter 4: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 5: Tyler Reddick
Garage pick: Ross Chastain
NEXT IN LINE: Kevin Harvick, Christopher Bell, Austin Cindric, William Byron
RISING: Christopher Bell enters the postseason flying under the radar. He’s quietly earned the most top-five and top-10 finishes of the four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers through 26 races. The No. 20 will take the green flag from second and had the 10th quickest car on the long run in practice. He also got 200 miles of experience in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, replacing Denny Hamlin.
Of drivers that aren’t battling for either the driver’s or owner’s championship, Michael McDowell was best in class on Saturday. The No. 34 car surprised again and will start the 500-mile race from 10th. Add that to the No. 34 car placing seventh in the spring race, and it shouldn’t surprise anybody to see him score another top 10 this year.
FALLING: Earlier this week, I mentioned to stay away from Daniel Suarez. His stats at Darlington are below average, with an average result of 22.3, scoring just one top 10 – and a 10th at that. The No. 99 car failed inspection three times on Saturday and couldn’t make a qualifying run. He will also have to serve a pass-through penalty once the race begins. Don’t jump on the No. 99 bandwagon this weekend.
While Chase Elliott hasn’t won at Darlington in the Cup Series yet in his career, he’s had standout runs. The 2020 champion has three top-five and five top-10 finishes in 11 starts. But the No. 9 car lacked speed on Saturday, as he qualified 23rd, lowest of the playoff drivers that were allowed to make a lap (Suárez). Given Elliott has had plenty of success at other playoff tracks, wait to use him.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Austin Cindric vs. Austin Dillon
Entering the weekend, Dillon had my vote. Darlington is tied with Daytona for the most top 10s he has at a single track. But Team Penske was impressive in qualifying, putting all three of its cars inside the top 10. And though starting 13th isn’t bad for the No. 3 car, Cindric ranked third on 10-lap averages.
Chase Elliott vs. Denny Hamlin
Given Hamlin is in my lineup and Elliott isn’t even in my “next in line,” it’s clear which way I’m leaning. While Elliott might manage a good day, more times than not Hamlin is in contention for the win at Darlington.
Kyle Busch vs. Kyle Larson
Frequent frontrunners at Darlington, combined Busch and Larson have just one win at Darlington. In recent years, Busch has had a good car but DNF’d in two straight races. At the same time, Larson has finished runner-up in three of his last four starts at the track. The slight advantage goes to the No. 5 team, but this is a tossup. They start fifth (Busch) and seventh (Larson), respectively.
Kevin Harvick vs. Tyler Reddick
Based on veteran instinct and recent speed, Harvick was my choice entering the weekend. However, that changed after practice and qualifying, with the No. 8 car starting fourth, his best qualifying effort on an oval since Gateway. It’s likely Harvick will maximize his race, but Darlington is a track that fits naturally in Reddick’s wheelhouse.