PNC Park hosts an intriguing matchup on Thursday. The Pittsburgh Pirates welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to town for the finale of a three-game series. The National League Central rivals face off for the final time in Pittsburgh this season, with an afternoon time slot. Pittsburgh will deploy Zach Thompson as its starting pitcher, with Milwaukee countering with Brandon Woodruff.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as the -260 money-line favorite (risk $260 to win $100) for this 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is eight in the latest Pirates vs. Brewers odds. Before making any Brewers vs. Pirates picks, you need to the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it enters Week 18 on a 20-14 roll on top-rated MLB picks, returning almost $400 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Brewers vs. Pirates and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Pirates vs. Brewers:
- Brewers vs. Pirates money line: Brewers -260, Pirates +210
- Brewers vs. Pirates over-under: 8 runs
- Brewers vs. Pirates run line: Brewers -1.5 (-140)
- MIL: The Brewers are 24-21 in day games
- PIT: The Pirates are 18-26 in day games
- Brewers vs. Pirates picks: See picks here.
Why you should back the Brewers
Milwaukee's offense is significantly more potent when compared to Pittsburgh. The Pirates are last in the National League in runs scored this season, and Pittsburgh's peripheral metrics are also quite weak on offense. From there, the Brewers are in the top five of the NL in runs scored, stolen bases, walks and on-base percentage. Milwaukee's power is notable with top-three marks in home runs, slugging percentage and OPS, and six players have reached double-digit home runs for the Brewers.
Milwaukee is facing a Pittsburgh starter in Thompson who has allowed 14 runs in the last two starts, and the Brewers have an All-Star on the mound in Woodruff. He has a 3.55 ERA this season with 11.6 strikeouts and only 2.7 walks per nine innings. Woodruff has a 2.16 ERA in the last nine starts, including a 1.46 ERA mark since the All-Star break, and opponents have only a .644 OPS against Woodruff this season. He has also enjoyed success against Pittsburgh in 2022, posting a 2.86 ERA across four starts.
Why you should back the Pirates
The Pirates have the benefit of home-field advantage, and Pittsburgh has been notably better at PNC Park this season. Pittsburgh will deploy Thompson as its starting pitcher on Thursday, and the 28-year-old right-hander posted a 3.24 ERA during the 2021 season. Thompson has allowed a .693 OPS to right-handed batters in his career, and he has performed at a league-average level across two seasons of action.
Milwaukee's offense also has shortcomings, including a road output that is worse across the board than what the Brewers have done at home. The Brewers also rank in the bottom five of the National League in doubles, triples and strikeout avoidance, with below-average marks in hits and batting average this season.
How to make Brewers vs. Pirates picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 9.6 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Brewers vs. Pirates? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Brewers vs. Pirates you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.