The Tampa Bay Rays (34-23) drop by Target Field Friday to begin a 3-game series with the Minnesota Twins (33-26) at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Rays SP Shane McClanahan outdueled St. Louis Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas in Tampa’s 2-1 win Thursday to close out a 3-game sweep of the Cardinals. The Rays are 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Minnesota lost the rubber match of a 3-game set with the New York Yankees Thursday 10-7, blowing a 7-3 lead, and the Twins fell to 4-6 in the last 10.
Season series: Minnesota leads 2-1 with a plus-9 run differential in those meetings.
Rays at Twins projected starters
RHP Drew Rasmussen vs. LHP Devin Smeltzer
Rasmussen is 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 53 2/3 IP over 11 starts.
Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 3-2 home loss vs. the Chicago White Sox Saturday with 7-scoreless IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K. This is Rasmussen’s 1st career start vs. the Twins.Smeltzer is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 4.2 K/9 in 28 IP over 5 starts.
Last start: No-decision in Minnesota’s 8-6 win at the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday with 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 1 K. This is Smeltzer’s 1st career start vs. the Rays.Rays at Twins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
Money line (ML): Rays -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Twins -117 (bet $117 to win $100) Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+155) | Twins +1.5 (-190) Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -140 | U: +112)Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Rays at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 7, Twins 5
Money line
BET the RAYS (-103).
Tampa opened as -125 favorites and has been steamed down. But, there’s value in fading that line movement because the Rays have a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup, and the Twins (-117) used a ton of relievers in a 10-7 loss to the Yankees Thursday.
Since the total is high (8.5), we should see a bunch of both bullpens, and this is an area of strength for Tampa whereas Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 29th in WAR (-0.2) and 27th in FIP (4.29), according to FanGraphs.
BET the RAYS (-103).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m not confident enough to sprinkle on the Rays -1.5 (+155) even though the Twins +1.5 (-190) are just 3-7 RL as home underdogs.
Rasmussen’s numbers dip on the road, Smetlzer’s improve at home and all 3 of the previous Rays-Twins meetings this season have been lopsided one way or the other.
PASS.
Over/Under
The market steamed this total up from an 8.5-run opener to 9.5, and it fell back down this afternoon. Minnesota’s lineup has been raking lately, but its bullpen is unreliable. Also, Tampa is 3-0-1 O/U in Rasmussen’s last 4 starts, Minnesota is 5-0-1 O/U in the last 6 games and the Rays-Twins are 7-2 O/U in their last 9 meetings in Minnesota.
But, since there is a ton of juice in play, it’s just a LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-140).
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