Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros, chances, picks and predictions.

Marlins vs. Astros: MLB Picks and Predictions

The Houston Astros (36-21) host the Miami Marlins (25-30) Friday for the 1st of their 3-game interleague series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami is 6-4 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games, which includes a 3-game sweep of the Washington Nationals Tuesday-Thursday.

Houston is 7-3 SU in the last 10 but lost the rubber match of a 3-game home series with the Seattle Mariners 6-3 Wednesday.

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Luis Garcia

Lopez is 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 66 IP over 11 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 5-4 home win vs. the San Francisco Giants Saturday with 7 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K. This is Lopez’s 1st career start vs. the Astros.

Garcia is 3-4 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 55 2/3 IP over 10 starts.

Last start: Loss, 6-0, Saturday at the Kansas City Royals with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K. This is Garcia’s 1st career start vs. the Marlins.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100) Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-170) | Astros -1.5 (+135) Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Marlins 4, Astros 3

BET the MARLINS (+130). 

This is a suspiciously low number considering Houston’s record, and more than 80% of the cash is on the Astros (-160), according to Pregame.com.

But, the line hasn’t budged, and this line freeze suggests the House is daring the public to take a bigger position on Houston.

Also, Miami has the starting pitching edge Friday. Lopez had a subpar start in his last outing, by his standard, and should bounce back vs. the Astros.

He grades in the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, chase rate and whiff rate, per Statcast, and Lopez has just a 1.41 road ERA over 5 starts this year.

Lastly, the Marlins are better than their record indicates. Miami has an MLB-leading minus-5 luck factor, which means the Marlins should have 5 more wins based on run differential.

BET 0.75 units on the MARLINS (+130).

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PASS.

Miami is 14-5 RL as road underdogs, but the Marlins +1.5 (-170) is a little out of my price range. Garcia is having a solid year himself, and the Astros -1.5 (+135) are a top-3 team in the American League.

PASS.

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108).

Miami is 11-15 O/U on the road, and Houston is 7-16 O/U at home, Marlins-Astros are a combined 7-14 O/U when these two starters get the nod, Minute Maid Park is 26th in park factor (aka very pitcher-friendly), and sharp action has steamed this total down from an 8-run opener, per Pregame.com.

However, since we are getting late to the party on the total, and this number is sharp, there isn’t much value left in the UNDER 7.5 (-108).

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