Marlins vs. Astros: MLB Picks and Predictions
The Houston Astros (36-21) host the Miami Marlins (25-30) Friday for the 1st of their 3-game interleague series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami is 6-4 straight up (SU) over the last 10 games, which includes a 3-game sweep of the Washington Nationals Tuesday-Thursday.
Houston is 7-3 SU in the last 10 but lost the rubber match of a 3-game home series with the Seattle Mariners 6-3 Wednesday.
Marlins at Astros projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Luis Garcia
Lopez is 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 66 IP over 11 starts.
Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 5-4 home win vs. the San Francisco Giants Saturday with 7 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K. This is Lopez’s 1st career start vs. the Astros.
Garcia is 3-4 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 55 2/3 IP over 10 starts.
Last start: Loss, 6-0, Saturday at the Kansas City Royals with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K. This is Garcia’s 1st career start vs. the Marlins.
Marlins at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Money line (ML): Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Astros -160 (bet $160 to win $100) Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-170) | Astros -1.5 (+135) Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Marlins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Astros 3
Money line
BET the MARLINS (+130).
This is a suspiciously low number considering Houston’s record, and more than 80% of the cash is on the Astros (-160), according to Pregame.com.
But, the line hasn’t budged, and this line freeze suggests the House is daring the public to take a bigger position on Houston.
Also, Miami has the starting pitching edge Friday. Lopez had a subpar start in his last outing, by his standard, and should bounce back vs. the Astros.
He grades in the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, chase rate and whiff rate, per Statcast, and Lopez has just a 1.41 road ERA over 5 starts this year.
Lastly, the Marlins are better than their record indicates. Miami has an MLB-leading minus-5 luck factor, which means the Marlins should have 5 more wins based on run differential.
BET 0.75 units on the MARLINS (+130).
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Miami is 14-5 RL as road underdogs, but the Marlins +1.5 (-170) is a little out of my price range. Garcia is having a solid year himself, and the Astros -1.5 (+135) are a top-3 team in the American League.
PASS.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-108).
Miami is 11-15 O/U on the road, and Houston is 7-16 O/U at home, Marlins-Astros are a combined 7-14 O/U when these two starters get the nod, Minute Maid Park is 26th in park factor (aka very pitcher-friendly), and sharp action has steamed this total down from an 8-run opener, per Pregame.com.
However, since we are getting late to the party on the total, and this number is sharp, there isn’t much value left in the UNDER 7.5 (-108).
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).