Everyone from Average Joes to professional bettors will place wagers on Sunday's NASCAR at Sonoma race. The Toyota/Save Mart 350 runs at 3 p.m. ET from Sonoma Raceway and Kevin Harvick is the Vegas favorite at 11-4 after opening at 4-1. Behind Harvick on the Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds board is Martin Truex Jr., who is listed at 7-2. Harvick won this race, a 2.5-mile road course, last year, and is one of four drivers going off at lower than 10-1 NASCAR at Sonoma odds.
Before you lock in your NASCAR at Sonoma picks, you need to see what SportsLine's projection model has to say.
The model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.
McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing its 2018 NASCAR picks.
The model has already made several huge calls in NASCAR this year, nailing the 1-2 finish for Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick at the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 as well as Harvick's win at the KC Masterpiece 400. It also nailed five of the top 10 at Bristol and two of the top five at Daytona, just to name a few. Anybody following its picks this season is way, way up.
Now that the 2018 NASCAR at Sonoma field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.
One surprising pick from the model for Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350: Joey Logano, listed at 25-1 NASCAR at Sonoma odds, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a major payday.
Logano finished 12th at Sonoma last season and 24th at Watkins Glen. However, in his five previous road races, he finished sixth or better, including a win at Watkins Glen in 2015 despite only leading one lap. This season in Monster Energy Cup races, he has finished in the top 10 in all but three starts.
Another shocker: A.J. Allmendinger, who's going off at 16-1 and has a strong history at Sonoma, is shut out of the top 10.
Even though he has a pair of top-10 finishes at Sonoma in nine career starts, he hasn't finished in the top 15 in his last three races overall. Even though he has been traditionally a strong racer on road courses, there are better values in this loaded field.
The model also says three other drivers going off with NASCAR at Sonoma odds of 20-1 or longer will make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could strike it rich.
So who wins the 2018 Toyota/Save Mart 350? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year.
Kevin Harvick 11-4
Martin Truex Jr. 7-2
Clint Bowyer 4-1
Kyle Busch 8-1
Kurt Busch 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
A.J. Allmendinger 16-1
Brad Keselowski 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 20-1
Kyle Larson 20-1
Chase Elliott 20-1
Jamie McMurray 25-1
Ryan Blaney 25-1
Joey Logano 25-1