Last year’s sooner-than-expected return to contention was a blast for everyone who follows the Milwaukee Brewers.
Now we want more.
Thought to be in a rebuilding mode, the Brewers led the National League Central Division for much of the summer, improved from 73 to 86 wins and finished one game out in the wild card race. Their offseason moves signaled a fundamental shift in their approach, particularly the acquisition of three veterans: outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich and starting pitcher Jhoulys Chacin.
With the Brewers’ season opener Thursday at San Diego, many in the national media expect them to finish behind the Chicago Cubs (and perhaps St. Louis) in the NL Central but contend for a wild card spot. As for me, I’m torn. I think they’ll be good again but I can’t convince myself they’ve done enough to take another step up this season.
As you will see, for every reason I can find to get excited about this season, I can find one that’s just as worrisome.
Excited: Cain and Yelich should do wonders for an offense that was horribly inconsistent due to its free-swinging ways. The Brewers led the NL in home runs and stolen bases but also set the major league strikeout record for the second straight season. While Cain and Yelich bring power, it is their high on-base percentage that should make the Brewers less reliant on the long ball.
With Cain, Yelich, third baseman Travis Shaw, outfielder Domingo Santana, first baseman Eric Thames and a healthy Ryan Braun, who will split time between the outfield and first base, the Brewers will have five middle-of-the-order hitters in the lineup every day. Cain and Yelich will add speed and power near the top of the order, but the question mark is the leadoff spot. If second baseman Jonathan Villar can regain his 2016 form, when he was one of baseball’s best leadoff hitters, watch out.
Worried: The starting rotation was a strength last season, but Jimmy Nelson had shoulder surgery in September and probably won’t be able to pitch effectively until June, if then. Even with Nelson, the Brewers might be one ace away from contending in the division. Without him, people have every reason to wonder if they’ve done enough with their rotation.
The Brewers showed they were concerned about that when their name was attached to every big-name starting pitcher — Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn — in free agency. But they didn’t want to pay the price those starters commanded and ended up adding only Chacin, a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Chacin will join veterans Chase Anderson and Zach Davies, with unproven youngsters Brent Suter and Brandon Woodruff filling out the rotation. General manager David Stearns said he has faith in the pitchers at the top of the farm system and owner Mark Attanasio said the Brewers didn’t spend big because they wanted some ammunition to make a major move at the trade deadline, but those sounded a lot like rationalizations for a potentially suspect rotation.
Excited: One way to help a so-so pitching staff is to put a great defense behind it. The Brewers were a good defensive team last season, but the additions of Cain and Yelich could make them one of the best as both outfielders won Gold Gloves in the past. Along with emerging shortstop Orlando Arcia and catcher Manny Pina, they give the Brewers elite defenders at the most critical positions.
Worried: Last year’s locker room camaraderie was evident again during spring training, but keeping everyone happy will be a challenge for manager Craig Counsell. While the Brewers have great depth, they also have a logjam for playing time at first base and in the outfield. Counsell isn’t worried — he said these things have a way of working themselves out — but he also admitted he doesn’t yet have a plan for using Braun, Cain, Yelich and Santiago in the outfield and Braun, Thames and Jesus Aguilar at first.
Excited: All-star closer Corey Knebel was back in form this spring, which means the bullpen has one of baseball’s best anchors. After taking over for Neftali Feliz early last season, Knebel kept getting better, as did the bullpen. Also coming off strong finishes are Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress. Veterans Matt Albers and Boone Logan were brought in to fortify the bullpen, though Logan is on the DL.
Worried: In baseball, players and teams that perform above expectations one year tend to regress the following year. That is a concern for the Brewers because multiple players had career years in 2017. Included in that group are core players such as Shaw, Santiago, Thames, Aguilar, Anderson and Knebel.
Excited: The last three World Series winners — Kansas City, the Cubs and Houston — have encouraged major league teams to sacrifice a few seasons and rebuild from scratch. This year, one-third of the teams will be in a full-fledged rebuilding mode, which means there just aren’t as many teams to beat out as there used to be.
Worried: The Cubs won the division the last two years and improved themselves more during the offseason than the Brewers did. Of course, the Cubs have a lot more money to spend than the Brewers, but they wisely spent it on starting pitching and still have the best rotation in the division.