The top candidate to win the 2018 World Cup is Brazil.
This is the opinion of the sports statistics analysis company Gracenote, which places the five-time world champions with more than twice the chances of the country that should be their opponent in the final: Spain.
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Based on the calculation of one million simulations of the tournament, with points earned according to the probabilities of winning, drawing, or losing each match based on the ranking of each team, Gracenote established that Brazil and the European Red Team have a slight advantage over Germany and Argentina.
Then there is France, just ahead of Peru and Colombia.
It is striking that these last two, who have never reached a World Cup semifinal, are ahead of England, Belgium, Portugal, or even Uruguay, teams that have a greater tradition in the final stages of the World Cup.
The Underdogs
Among the teams with less chances of winning is Panama, to whom they give only a 26% probability of surpassing the G group they share with England, Belgium, and Tunisia, a group from which the African country also does not come out well.
Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Korea, and Nigeria are also expected to be eliminated in the group stage, while Costa Rica's situation is strange, as they are given only a 28% chance of advancing to the round of 16 despite their great performance four years ago.
Brazil is the top candidate to win the 2018 World Cup, according to Gracenote.
In Brazil 2014, the Costa Rican team not only finished first in a group with England, Italy, and Uruguay, but also reached the quarterfinals where they were eliminated in the penalty shootout against the Netherlands.
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According to Gracenote's calculations, there is a 47% chance of there being a champion who has never won a World Cup before, while they expect the round of 16 to be composed of 10 European countries and six Latin American countries.
Among them, Peru and Colombia, who according to statistics are expected to be the big surprise in Russia with a 22% and 21% chance of reaching the semifinals, respectively.
Possibilities of advancing from the group stage
Group A: Uruguay 77%, Russia 60%, Egypt 36%, Saudi Arabia 27%
Group B: Spain 76%, Portugal 58%, Iran 35%, Morocco 30%
Group C: France 69%, Peru 68%, Denmark 35%, Australia 27%
Group D: Argentina 82%, Croatia 57%, Iceland 35%, Nigeria 27%
Group E: Brazil 90%, Switzerland 51%, Serbia 31%, Costa Rica 28%
Group F: Germany 79%, Mexico 60%, Sweden 34%, South Korea 27%
Group G: England 71%, Belgium 71%, Tunisia 32%, Panama 26%
Group H: Colombia 77%, Poland 50%, Senegal 45%, Japan 29% (D)
