The Yankees finally have something resembling breathing room over the Baltimore Orioles, with a two-game lead in the AL East heading into play Tuesday. That lead actually means a great deal, with the Yankees boasting the best World Series odds in baseball and a 74 percent chance of winning the division per FanGraphs.
Butttttttt, we’ve seen these two clubs go back and forth all year, rarely more than a couple games apart in the win/loss column. A bad finish to this series against the Nationals could have the Yankees right back to square one with just over a month to go in the season, and you could make the argument that the Os have a more favorable schedule.
The Orioles do head west for a series against the Dodgers, and LA is the toughest opponent either Baltimore or New York plays down the stretch. However, right after the Dodgers, the Os get six games against Colorado and the White Sox. As we saw with the Yankees, you still have to actually get those wins, the odds are certainly better. On the whole, the rest of the Orioles’ opponents have a .484 winning percentage, while the Yankees will deal with a .497.
You have to also take into account the types of teams you’re playing — whether they’ll be pushing for a playoff spot or just playing out the rest of the year. The Yankees go from the Nationals to the Cardinals, who are scrabbling for a Wild Card spot, and after a set with Texas will take on the Cubs, who are a half-game ahead of those Cardinals in the same Wild Card race.
Indeed, the Yankees play two more games than the Os do against teams that have “a chance”, or playoff odds higher than 10 percent. The Os also play one more game against teams with 0.0 percent playoff odds, the true dregs of baseball. One piece at a time, this is all pretty marginal, but none of us would be all that surprised if the division lead is back to one game by the time you’re reading this. It’s all about the margins!
The Yankees get 16 games at home compared to Baltimore just having 12, and the birds are a better team at their ballpark than the Yankees are at theirs. The Yankees, funny enough, have actually been better on the road than in the Bronx this year, with a sizzling .627 win percentage away from home. If that carries over into those series with the Rangers and Cubs, that’s becomes a huge opportunity to neutralize some of the gains Baltimore will likely make in these six games against the Rockies and White Sox.
The big key to winning the division is going to be the three-game series between the Yankees and Baltimore starting on September 24th. Those three games in the Bronx will have a playoff-type atmosphere, barring the Yanks already locking up the AL East. With the Os having a slight edge down the stretch based on their schedules, I don’t think that’s likely, setting up what should be a great showdown next month.