Analysis | NCAA tournament bracketology: A bracket to start the new season

Maybe the most regrettable thing about college basketball — and it’s connected to how it is now a sport that many casual fans pay attention to for about a month every year, six or seven weeks tops — is how little its regular season has come to be valued by the sporting public.

It has been that way for a while, of course, but it feels as though it has been amplified in recent years. A team can go out, win almost 30 games and its conference regular season and tournament titles, get bounced in the first round of the NCAA tournament and be viewed by too many as a failure.

And if that team happens to be a No. 1 seed — as Purdue was last year when it lost to Fairleigh Dickinson — then the dismissiveness is even more pronounced.

While setting up the annual dart throw that is a preseason projected field of 68 before the season tips off Monday, it was hard to ignore the Boilermakers as a team with a good chance to eventually be the No. 1 overall seed come March.

They have five starters back, including the returning national player of the year in center Zach Edey. While someone has to get him the ball, Edey is a difficult force to reckon with.

The Big Ten is long on competent teams with excellent home-court advantages but short on elite guards and serious Final Four contenders, the latter a chronic condition that makes it more plausible for Purdue to roll up a 15-5 or 16-4 league record.

And it’s never fun for opponents when one of the best teams from a year earlier has a serious prove-it attitude after a bit of postseason misery. Two recent examples are North Carolina’s run to the 2017 title after losing in the championship game the year before and Virginia’s 2019 surge after a loss to a No. 16 seed the previous March.

That doesn’t mean this year is a coronation for Purdue. Its sophomore guards (Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith) need to improve after logging major minutes in their first college season. And there is the matter of the trend of losses to double-digit seeds — a No. 13 (North Texas) in the 2021 first round, a No. 15 (Saint Peter’s) in the 2022 region semifinals and then a No. 16 last year. There is some history to mentally block out in the months to come.

But for the purposes of projecting a 68-team field, which is based on the first 30 to 35 games of the season and not a single-elimination sample size of only a handful of games? It’s hard to ignore Purdue and its chances to find itself back on the No. 1 line come Selection Sunday in March.

Last four included: Oregon, Nevada, Ohio State, Providence

First four on the outside: Missouri, Iowa State, N.C. State, Colorado State

Ten more teams to consider: Arizona State, College of Charleston, Iowa, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, Utah, VCU, Xavier, St. Bonaventure

Conference call: Big Ten (7), SEC (7), ACC (6), Big East (6), Big 12 (6), Pac-12 (5), Mountain West (4), American Athletic (2), West Coast (2)

Bracket format: Midwest vs. West; South vs. East

Indianapolis

(1) BIG TEN/Purdue vs. (16) SWAC/Jackson State-OHIO VALLEY/Morehead State winner

(8) TCU vs. (9) Colorado

Spokane, Wash.

(5) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Florida Atlantic vs. (12) ATLANTIC SUN/Eastern Kentucky

(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) SUMMIT/South Dakota State

Charlotte

(3) Miami vs. (14) AMERICA EAST/Vermont

(6) Villanova vs. (11) Ohio State-Oregon winner

Omaha

(7) Maryland vs. (10) New Mexico

(2) Houston vs. (15) HORIZON/Wisconsin Milwaukee

Just as a team such as Purdue probably receives a little extra skepticism after an early tournament flameout, teams that go on deep runs probably get a bit of a benefit. Did various metrics undersell Florida Atlantic when it was 31-3 going into the postseason? Yeah. With an upgraded schedule, will it end up a top-10 team this year? It won’t be easy. … Eastern Kentucky is a one-bid-league team to look out for. The Colonels have the nucleus of a 23-win team back and are a heavy favorite to win the Atlantic Sun. …

Ohio State was good for two months (10-3) last season, then dreadful for seven weeks (1-14) and then a major nuisance the last week of the regular season and in the Big Ten tournament (5-2). The Buckeyes have plenty of their depth back, but will they mature into a more consistent team? … Houston did just fine when it faced high-major competition the past few years. The Cougars won’t have as many games they can sleepwalk through and win in the Big 12, but then again, that wasn’t their style to begin with.

Indianapolis

(1) BIG EAST/Marquette vs. (16) METRO ATLANTIC/Iona

(8) Auburn vs. (9) Indiana

Salt Lake City

(5) MOUNTAIN WEST/San Diego State vs. (12) SUN BELT/Southern Mississippi

(4) Baylor vs. (13) SOUTHERN/Furman

Salt Lake City

(3) PAC-12/Arizona vs. (14) BIG WEST/UC Santa Barbara

(6) North Carolina vs. (11) MISSOURI VALLEY/Drake

Memphis

(7) Illinois vs. (10) Kansas State

(2) SEC/Tennessee vs. (15) BIG SOUTH/UNC Asheville

Auburn should have an excellent frontcourt, but its guard play will have a bit to prove. The Tigers could be a decidedly up-and-down team, with a wide range of outcomes possible for the season. They’re a wild card. … San Diego State brings back a couple of starters from its national runner-up team but also a few key subs and savvy transfer additions. The Aztecs will defend and probably be a headache for pretty much everyone this year. …

It would be difficult for North Carolina to fall short of expectations — both internal and external — as spectacularly as last year. The Tar Heels have retooled their roster to the point they shouldn’t miss the NCAA tournament again, but there’s a wait-and-see element warranted to evaluating Hubert Davis’s team. … Illinois hasn’t reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament since its title-game appearance in 2005, but there is enough in place in Champaign to end that drought.

Omaha

(1) BIG 12/Kansas vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Fairleigh Dickinson-SOUTHLAND/McNeese State

(8) Virginia vs. (9) ATLANTIC 10/Dayton

Pittsburgh

(5) Saint Mary’s vs. (12) CONFERENCE USA/Liberty

(4) Kentucky vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Akron

Pittsburgh

(3) Michigan State vs. (14) COASTAL/UNC Wilmington

(6) UCLA vs. (11) Clemson

Memphis

(7) Boise State vs. (10) Mississippi State

(2) Creighton vs. (15) BIG SKY/Weber State

The opportunity is there for former LSU coach Will Wade to get back to the NCAA tournament in his first year on the sideline at McNeese State. The Cowboys’ most recent NCAA trip was in 2002. … Kentucky’s stock swung wildly in the offseason, but the Wildcats head into the season with a decent chance to advance to the second weekend of the postseason for the first time since 2019.

UNC Wilmington didn’t join a new league. The Colonial Athletic Association changed one word in its name over the summer and is now the Coastal Athletic Association. … Creighton had high expectations last season, wobbled in December but eventually made an Elite Eight run. The Bluejays bring back three starters and could have a Final Four breakthrough in March. One mild annoyance for them: They’re the host of the Omaha subregional and have to go elsewhere for the first and second rounds.

Charlotte

(1) ACC/Duke vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Howard

(8) Memphis vs. (9) St. John’s

Brooklyn

(5) Arkansas vs. (12) Nevada/Providence winner

(4) Texas vs. (13) IVY/Yale

Spokane, Wash.

(3) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (14) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Stephen F. Austin

(6) Alabama vs. (11) Wake Forest

Brooklyn

(7) Southern California vs. (10) Wisconsin

(2) Connecticut vs. (15) PATRIOT/Colgate

An exhibition loss suggests St. John’s is far from a finished product, so this placement is a gamble that Rick Pitino will get the Red Storm to max out. … Gonzaga can play in Spokane because the subregional is not played on the Zags’ home court. Mark Few’s team will play only one game at Spokane Arena, a Jan. 4 meeting with Pepperdine. …

The committee tries to avoid regular season rematches, but that doesn’t apply to exhibition games. Wake Forest met Alabama last month. … Connecticut’s path back to the Final Four could easily be Brooklyn in the opening weekend and Boston for a regional. As much success as the Huskies have had out West over the years (they’ve won four of their five titles as West Region champs), they would probably like to stay so close to home.