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The US Men's National Team can take a monumental step towards advancing from the Group Stage at the 2022 World Cup if it can do something it hasn't done since 1993: beat England.
The USMNT (0-1-0) and England (1-0-0) will square off this afternoon at 2:00 pm ET in the second game of the tournament for both sides. The US is coming off a 1-1 draw with Wales, while England thumped Iran 6-2 in its opener and thus leads Group B.
The four teams play each other once in the Group Stage with the top-two finishers (in each of the eight groups) advancing to the Round of 16.
England vs United States Betting Odds
England is a heavy favorite in today's match. The three-way odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have England at -210 to win. The draw is +340 while a USA victory is a +550 longshot.
The two-way odds (also known as "draw no bet") set England as a massive -700 favorite with the USMNT at +450. "Draw no bet" wagers are refunded if the match ends in a tie.
The Opening Games
There is no sugarcoating this for American fans: England looked much better than the US in the opening matches, which came against comparable competition. (Iran currently sits 20th in the FIFA World Rankings, just a single spot behind Wales. England is 5th while the US is 16th.)
England dominated Iran, not just in the scoreline, but also in terms of possession (78%) and shot attempts (13-8). Yes, they were lucky that Iran lost their starting keeper early, but it was still a dizzying offensive performance from the English once they found their rhythm late in the first half.
Team USA started strong against Wales. They generated considerably more first-half chances, carried possession (67%), and were fully deserving of a 1-0 halftime lead.
Tim Weah vs Wales WC 2022 pic.twitter.com/WGo0TFqovq
— Jack Stephen ðºð¸ð®ð³ (@USMNTZ) November 22, 2022
The second half was a different story. Wales didn't exactly dominate, but they generated considerably more pressure and came close to tying the game before a late penalty kick from Gareth Bale finally did the trick.
England vs USA H2H History
History isn't kind to the Americans when looking at the head-to-head with England over the years. All time, the US is 2-1-8 (win-draw-loss) against England, with the more-recent win coming in 1993 and the prior at the 1950 World Cup.
The good news for the Americans is that the teams have only played once in the past 22 years (a 3-0 win for England in a 2018 friendly). So that ugly head-to-head record is little more than ancient history.
Another statistic that bodes well - or, at least, not poorly - for Team USA is England's recent performance at the UEFA Nations League. Over the summer months, England played six matches (two each against Germany, Hungary, and Italy) and went 0-1-5. They were held off the scoresheet in three and their only point came from a 0-0 home draw with the Italians.
But it would be disingenuous to suggest Team USA entered the World Cup in top form. They went just 4-3-2 in their last nine competitive fixtures before the tournament with their wins coming against Panama (#60 in the world), El Salvador (#74), Honduras (#80), and Grenada (#173). They went 0-1-2 against the other CONCACAF teams to qualify for the World Cup (Canada, Costa Rica, and Mexico).
England vs USA Best Bet
This World Cup, as a whole, has been prone to sluggish starts. Entering play on Friday, eight of 16 matches entered halftime scoreless. Only three of 16 had seen a goal in the first half-hour of play.
Going back further for the teams at issue, in England's six UEFA Nations League matches this summer, five went to the half scoreless. For Team USA, there has only been a goal in the first 30 minutes in one of its past six matches.
With the win over Iran in their back pocket, the English will be well aware that they already have a huge leg up in Group B. There shouldn't be a huge emphasis on outright attacking from Harry Kane and company in the early going.
The best value I see on the board is a 0-0 first-half draw at +220. At those odds, you only need a 32% chance for the wager to be good value. By my math, the chances of this game going to the half scoreless are much closer to 50/50.
Obviously, this wager carries a large element of risk. Summer struggles notwithstanding, this English side is filled with quality finishers. Their 6-2 win over Iran was a case-in-point. Five different players scored, and none were named Harry Kane. One moment of brilliance from either side in the first 45 minutes - or one lapse in concentration - will sink this ship. Never wager - nor even deposit at a sportsbook - more than you can afford to lose.
At the same time, I reiterate what I said above: there's a higher chance of the first half ending 0-0 than the odds imply.
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