As Arsene Wenger stands knee-deep in snow on Thursday night, fiddling with the zip on his winter coat, he may wonder if he’s made a terrible mistake. The Frenchman belatedly decided to pour all Arsenal’s resources into the Europa League only to lose his main forward to injury, while – as is so often the way with Europe’s often-derided second competition – even avoiding a big club cannot spare you from a banana skin. And they may have been served up the ultimate one in Ostersunds FK.

The Swedish side are ranked 132 places lower than Arsenal according to UEFA’s club co-efficient, but that will matter little in the freezing cold temperatures that will greet the north Londoners. Besides the visit of the Gunners, the most recent sporting event to descend on Ostersund was the Biathlon World Cup – a winter sport that combines cross-country skiing and rifle shooting – while the club have even teased that Arsenal will be provided with igloos as changing rooms.

Incredibly Ostersunds FK did not even exist when Wenger was in the early throws of his long reign at Arsenal, and as recently as 2010 they were languishing in the fourth tier of Swedish football. Now, under Englishman Graham Potter, they have grown in notoriety – not least for some of the more unusual coaching techniques employed, such as broadening players’ minds by having them write books, act and even put on a production of Tchaikovsky’s Swan Lake.

That culminated in finishing fifth in last season’s Allsvenskan and winning the Svenska Cupen, thus sneaking into the early rounds of Europa League qualification. Since then they have defied all expectations. They beat Galatasaray and POAK en route to the group stages and pulled off a heroic victory against Hertha Berlin – the only defeat they suffered was by a single goal away to Athletic Bilbao. And now they have the scalp of Arsenal in their sights.

The point is: this is perhaps the easiest tie Arsenal could have got, and yet still it feels perilous and arduous. Two nights ago their north London rivals were in Turin giving one of the best away performances by a Premier League team in Europe, now Arsenal’s best hope of getting back into the Champions League is by winning the Europa League. Wenger confirmed he would play his strongest XI in Sweden, while fans are ready to blow off the league completely – they are eight points outside the top four.

‘I would have gone for it anyway,’ said Wenger this week on his team selection to face Ostersunds FK, ‘especially as we have no game between the two matches. I will play the normal team because it is one of the opportunities we have especially because we don’t play in the FA Cup. There is no reason why I should rest players.’

But already there have been hiccups. What constitutes Wenger’s best XI right now is rather hard to gauge, seeing as record signing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is cup-tied and Alexandre Lacazette is sidelined for six weeks with a knee injury. Will Danny Welbeck lead the line – something he has barely done over the last two years – or will Wenger be tempted to field a false No.9? Either way, Arsenal, and especially their ragged defence, do not look in a position to challenge the giants they could yet face.

Moreover, the notion that Arsenal can win the Europa League as easily as Manchester United did last season is far too simplistic. Jose Mourinho, aided by a favourable run of matches, made the competition look less challenging than it really is. Saint-Etienne finished 8^th in Ligue 1, Rostov – the only Champions League dropout faced – came 6^th in the Russian Premier League and Celta Vigo ended the campaign in 13^th place. Finalists Ajax did at least finish as runners-up in the Eredivisie, and Anderlecht were champions of Belgium.

But this season the competition is stocked with talent on a completely different level. Atletico Madrid – currently second to Barcelona in La Liga – have been to Champions League finals and now have Diego Costa back in their ranks, while Napoli are top of Serie A and playing some of the most intoxicating football Europe has to offer. Lyon, Borussia Dortmund, Lazio and RB Leipzig all offer stern tests too. They are a different calibre to what United face.

Does that really represent Arsenal’s best route into the Champions League? Admittedly, they need to average 2.83 points per game to hit 76 points – the probably cut off for a top-four place – but they only have two genuinely difficult matches left in the Premier League; after facing champions elect Manchester City, they then have a run of seven games in which Leicester (8^th) are the only top-half team they face. Meanwhile, their rivals are all preoccupied with the other competitions.

Whichever way you look at it, Wenger is caught between a rock and a hard place. Their top-four hopes are disappearing, but only an incredibly favourable Europa League draw offers a surer bet. Arsenal’s back-line is dishevelled, they are without firepower for at least a month and their away form – crucial to winning two-legged ties – has been atrocious all season. They may be able to pass Ostersund’s frosty first test, but already their European campaign feels like an embarrassment waiting to happen.