Two titles and two semifinals in the last four editions of the CONMEBOL Libertadores explain the current power of Palmeiras in South American football, but they are not enough to explain why they are the top candidate in the semifinal series against Boca Juniors. In addition to their history, their current form is superior to the Argentine team and the other semifinalists, Fluminense and Inter.
Why is Palmeiras the favorite?
With Abel Ferreira, the São Paulo team has found a solid performance that generates something very valuable in today's football: confidence in themselves. Palmeiras knows how they play. They know their strengths and weaknesses very well and they grow from those certainties. They are a structured team defensively and quick on the attack. They rarely deviate from their game plan and almost never play outside of what they have planned.
On the other hand, in a tournament like the Libertadores, it is essential to know the particularities of the competition perfectly. Palmeiras has become a "cup team". Since 2020, they have won 12 head-to-head series and only lost one, the 2022 semifinals against Athletico Paranaense. That advantage grows even more in stages like this.
Although their defensive solidity is highly valued, especially due to the performance of Gustavo Gómez, the Brazilian team is very strong in attack. In fact, they are the top scorers of the tournament, with 21 goals in favor in 10 matches. Artur is one of their top scorers and Rony is the top assist provider.
From the eleven players who took the field in the 2020 Libertadores final against Santos, nine are still in the squad. Only Danilo and Luiz Adriano left. In addition, they maintain the core formed by goalkeeper Weverton, center-back Gómez, midfielders Zé Rafael and Gabriel Menino, and forward Rony. Palmeiras plays well because they have a squad that knows each other perfectly.
Another reason why they are the favorites is their opponent. Boca is far from their best level. They have four consecutive draws and struggle to find consistent performances. They are not a solid defensive team nor precise in attack. If football was a predictable game, one could say that it is very difficult for them to overcome this stage. But football is much more complex than that...