The end is in sight for the Champions League with just four teams left on the road to Wembley. Having got this far Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund will all believe that it is going to be their name that ends up on the trophy. Below we make the case for why it might be,
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Real Madrid: The best team left
After an English collapse on the continent not seen since 1453 (look it up, if you must), suddenly this competition looks altogether more open than it has at any time since the last act of self-immolation by Manchester City at the sight of Real Madrid. At least three of the semifinalists have a very real chance to win it all, but it might just be that Madrid have the strongest of the lot. They have hardly set the Champions League alight this season, but prior to the quarterfinals they competed professionally and ruthlessly, a few crazy minutes against RB Leipzig not withstanding.
This is still a squad with institutional memories not just of European triumph, but achieving that on a serial basis. It is also one that is recovering health at an impressive rate, such that Thibaut Courtois was named in the squad that travelled to Munich and may well be able to play a part in at least some of the semifinal tie. The defensive injury crisis was supposed to wipe Madrid out of contention before this stage of the season, now Eder Militao is back and proved himself able to complete the full 90 minutes in victory at Real Sociedad on Friday. However, Aurelien Tchouameni has been so impressive at center back that he may well be entrusted the spot against Harry Kane and company, Carlo Ancelotti having confirmed that the France international will be in his XI.
Tchouameni's presence at the back speaks to the sheer versatility that Madrid can employ against a midfield that Thomas Tuchel has never successfully hidden his distrust in. Ancelotti could outrun Bayern Munich with the dynamism of Federico Valverde and Eduardo Camavinga or trust the old timers to control the tempo. His forwards have won big games for him en route to European silverware... well, except Jude Bellingham but it really feels like a matter of when not if the England international drops another of his buzzer beaters in the Champions League final.
They may have ridden their luck to get past Manchester City but now that they are here, Madrid have the best collection of players, playing for a badge that has that unique quality to make the best opposition freeze at just the wrong moment. Their path might not be as favorable as PSG's but that talent and aura offers a more convincing argument as to why it will be European Cup No.15 for Madrid.
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Bayern Munich: A Champions League genius
He might infuriate those above him and insist on starting fights with some of the most influential figures in his dressing room, but when that Champions League music starts echoing around Europe, Thomas Tuchel makes a compelling case for being worth the trouble and pain. This is the coach that came up with the best workaround for the defense free frontline at Paris Saint-Germain, who inherited a rabble in Chelsea colours and forged one of the best defenses the competition has ever seen over the space of an afternoon. Only one coach, Ernst Happel, has previously taken three separate clubs to the Champions League final. If anyone will have a plan for repeating that feat it is Tuchel.
Even a Bayern dressing room where so many key figures seemed to turn on him has seen the worth in their coach's plans. Arsenal were quelled and might have been beaten at the Emirates after Tuchel's deploying of Harry Kane and Jamal Musiala as a pair of 10s, dropping deep and taking Arsenal's center backs with them to expose more space in behind the Gunners full backs.
When injuries robbed him of the chance to repeat that trick at the Allianz Arena he then found himself vindicated in his manic insistence that Joshua Kimmich is really a right back, his side delivering the sort of composed display of defensive possession that is Tuchel's great calling card. It may not always make for the sexiest of Champions League ties but there is great efficiency to it, even after what has looked to be a fairly ordinary campaign Bayern find themselves with the best non-penalty xG difference of every team left in the field.
Not for nothing then are Bayern supporters, nearly 18,000 of them at the time of writing, now campaigning for Tuchel's retention. A surprise 1-0 loss to Lazio in the first leg of the round of 16 seemingly brought an end to the 50 year old's tenure at what always seemed to be the natural club for him. Then you see how he manages the biggest games, sweating the margins to bring his side out on top, and you wonder why Bayern would ever want anyone else.
Paris Saint-Germain: Mbappe factor
First, a caveat. To suggest that Kylian Mbappe is the most convincing reason why Paris Saint-Germain might win the Champions League is not to dismiss this serious contender as a one trick pony. Indeed, there is a persuasive argument to be made that PSG triumph over Barcelona in the quarter finals was as Mbappe-lite a big European win as they have had since he arrived from Monaco. Under Luis Enrique, PSG have discovered the value of a functioning midfield with Vitinha instrumental in Catalonia, Warren Zaire-Emery the breakout star who points to a bright new future in which Parisian talent is at the forefront of squad building.
The next few weeks, however, will not be decided by who has most shrewdly assembled their playing staff or who has a more coherent vision for how they will shape up in 2024-25. This is knockout football, where the actions of a superstar can decide the entire tournament. Karim Benzema went thermonuclear in the spring of 2022 and Real Madrid found themselves European champions despite being the inferior side in every two-legged tie. Leroy Sane, Antoine Griezmann, Rodrygo: all of them have wrestled contests in favor of their side this season.
Mbappe didn't quite deliver that against Barcelona -- his two goals might have secured victory in Montjuic but it was others that carried the greatest burden -- but it has rather felt that he has been biding his moment for the time he will do so. Perhaps PSG have even come to understand how they can utilize the gravity of their star player even when he doesn't have the ball, knowing that opponents will do so much to keep Mbappe from getting the ball in that left channel that they will allow almost anyone else to beat them. The curious thing is that might even be the right approach to take against the competition's leading goalscorer. One opening for Mbappe might be all it takes to write history for PSG.
Borussia Dortmund: Champions League magic
Champions League perennials they may be, but there is still something of the Cinderella story to Dortmund's passage deeper into this competition than they have been since their defeat to Bayern Munich at Wembley in 2013, all the more so because they could get a second chance at that fairytale ending in north west London come June. By rights, Edin Terzic's side shouldn't be there. Indeed, there would have been an argument that simply playing European football at the start of 2024 was success for Dortmund after they were drawn in that group of death with PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle. Instead they topped it, held their nerve against PSV Eindhoven and stunned Atletico Madrid.
It has been a thrilling ride, its outcome all the more improbable given their performances. Over their 10 Champions League games so far, Dortmund have kept their opponents to single digit shots only once, the 1-1 first leg draw at PSV Eindhoven. In only two games have they had shots worth more xG than their opponents, the professional home and away wins over a Newcastle side that betrayed a little too much inexperience on the European stage. Twice already this season they have given up two xG to PSG, about the same to Atletico Madrid in both legs and a boat load to RB Leipzig at the weekend. There is a reason why this team wouldn't be qualifying for the Champions League if it weren't for the success of German clubs, including themselves in Europe.
PSG should probably have too much for a defense that provides its opponents with so many openings, but some individual brilliance has got Dortmund this far, why not a bit further? Is it so unimaginable that Mats Hummels can hoover up yet more interceptions, that Gregor Kobel can maintain his excellent shot stopping form throughout this season? The Swiss international has four clean sheets from nine tough Champions League games and has prevented 5.78 goals, by some distance the best tally in the competition this season.
When even very good defenders are so far and away the best in the field, when so many high xG chances flash wide of goal and when the shots say one thing, the results another: the most logical conclusion is that it can't last. Normally it can't. But sometimes Greece win the European Championships, Porto win the Champions League, Leicester win the Premier League. Their luck holds just long enough. Dortmund's doesn't have to hold for that much longer.