What to focus on in Game 4 as the Suns face elimination

A playoff showing that’s left plenty more to be desired now sees the Phoenix Suns on the brink of elimination for the duration of the first round. I’ve maintained that the Suns will win at least one game this series off talent alone.

My major entity in it all also remains that they’d have to out-execute Minnesota three separate times for 48 minutes to garner the series victory. Now, with their backs against the wall, two of these three dynamics of the games are non-negotiable areas that have to be won, if they’re going to extend this series.

Here are some things to watch for in Game 4:

1.) Rebounding

The Timberwolves are presently — by far — leading the playoffs in rebound percentage, at 58.5%. The 2nd place Celtics are at 53.4%. The Timberwolves have grabbed 81.3% of the available boards on the defensive glass (2nd in the playoffs) while pairing that with grabbing 36% of the offensive boards available (also 2nd best).

The Suns cannot be outshot in attempts on goal, especially to the extent they’ve seen in Game 1 and Game 3. In the series, they’re being outshot 253-229 — a ton more attempts in favor of Minnesota.

This grows even more alarming when you see that the Suns did actually tie Minnesota in attempts and makes in Game 2.

They’ve also scored 53 points on 38 second-chance possessions, shooting 56% from two, and 50% from three on said possessions.

Those extra attempts come partly from Suns turnovers (especially live ball), and are heavier due to Minnesota’s three-point attempt rate — both of which serve as great transitions to the next two entities of the topic — in addition to a lack of effort on the glass in multiple moments.

2.) Three-Point Shooting

Minnesota also has the edge in three-point shooting on volume (32.7 to 26.0 from Phoenix per game) and makes (11.3 to 9.3 from Phoenix per game). The shot profile has been a season-long conversation had with the Suns, largely due to their main three shot-takers operating best inside the arc.

Minnesota has expunged plenty of attempts for the Suns from deep by way of their uptick in switching as the series has gone on, as well as working to take away pull-up pockets and flatten out the movement in that switching scheme. The switching has also played a factor in Phoenix’s ball movement, being held to just 19.7 assists on their 34.3 field goal attempts.

Those two numbers have been tied to one another, nearly in lockstep, all season for this team. When the ball is hopping around the floor for them, the three-point rate and efficiency ascend. When the ball movement is lacking, so is the production from three.

Generating the requisite level of paint touches against the switching of the Timberwolves is the key to unlocking the attempts from deep, that’ll come by way of getting the Timberwolves in rotation.

They’ve comfortably defended the Suns because Phoenix hasn’t been able to break their defensive shell consistently.

Paint touches via cuts (!!!), dribble penetration, and passes are the way to it — how detail-oriented in a sustained manner they will be, in discipline, is the barometer to check offensively for them in game four.

3.) Turnovers

Phoenix solved the turnover riddle in game three, compiling just nine. However, past just the arbitrary number at the surface level, it’s also the context of when, why, and how said turnovers occurred. Were the Suns on a run? Was Minnesota on a run? Was it miscommunication? Was it them being sped up by Minnesota’s pressure/activity/physicality? Is it coming in succession with other turnovers?

These have added up heavily adversely to Phoenix in this series as a whole.

Valuing the ball and enabling yourself more opportunities to score is a main avenue for the Suns to optimize the offensive firepower they do have.

They have 45 turnovers these playoffs, 5th most. Additionally, live ball turnovers (24 — ranking 6th most) account for 53.3%.

Honorable (and relevant) Mentions: Finish at the Rim

nba.com/stats

Phoenix has taken opportunities where they’re able to either self-create for opportunities at the rim or do so with the pass off extra attention. They just can't live off the volume of missed attempts they’ve compiled in this series.

It’s become an all-existing parties dynamic, and those misses most often lead to something positive on the other end for Minnesota.

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Desperation, urgency, physicality, attention to detail, discipline, disposition.

All these things take on the highest magnitude come playoffs, and grow even more when your back is against the wall. The margin for error has to be treated as non-existent on a per-possession basis, as they’re out of “tomorrow’s” should they not handle their business.

Let’s see what they bring to the fight, tonight.