When Nikola Jokic strolled off the Ball Arena court in June, he toted his first NBA Finals MVP trophy as if it were a trinket and calmly accepted congratulations for leading the Denver Nuggets to their first championship.
Though there were several tense moments in the closeout game, the Serbian center had just laid waste to all comers for two months. On the strength of Jokic’s sublime postseason, in which he nearly averaged a triple-double (30.0 points, 13.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists), the Nuggets’ 16-4 title run featured the fewest postseason losses by a team since the 2017 Golden State Warriors went 16-1, and Denver was the most dominant champion by point differential since Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Co. went back-to-back in 2018.
Even so, the Nuggets enter the new season flying under the radar again. They’re overshadowed by the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns, three contenders who made bold offseason trades to aid their ring-chasing efforts. Although the Nuggets return Jokic, Jamal Murray and the rest of their starting five, oddsmakers don’t view them as the favorites for the 2024 crown. Instead, Milwaukee and Boston moved ahead of Denver, which has Phoenix nipping at its heels.
The betting market appears to reflect how difficult it is to repeat in the NBA — only three teams have done it in the past 20 seasons — as well as the bubbling excitement that accompanied Damian Lillard’s move to Milwaukee, Jrue Holiday’s trade to Boston and Bradley Beal’s relocation to Phoenix. For Denver, which made no major additions this summer and lost backup guard Bruce Brown in free agency, the message remains continuity over change. The Nuggets’ starters posted a plus-13.1 net rating during the regular season and a plus-9.4 net rating in the playoffs, imbuing the organization with confidence that it can become the first repeat champion since Golden State.
“I was shocked how good we were in training camp,” Nuggets assistant coach David Adelman said. “There was a real excitement for that first five to play together again. We haven’t had a hangover.”
Denver opens its title defense Tuesday with a Western Conference finals rematch against the Los Angeles Lakers, but the two Eastern Conference favorites will command the most intense early-season scrutiny. Either the Bucks or Celtics have reached the East finals each of the past seven seasons, and the two have met in three of the past six playoffs. Boston holds a 2-1 series edge, but Giannis Antetokounmpo has bragging rights over Jayson Tatum thanks to Milwaukee’s 2021 title.
In the days before training camps opened, the Milwaukee-Boston arms race accelerated. The Bucks traded Holiday to Portland to acquire Lillard on Sept. 27, only for the Trail Blazers to send Holiday to the Celtics on Oct. 1. When the dust settled, Milwaukee had added a lethal scoring option next to Antetokounmpo, and Boston had replaced outgoing stopper Marcus Smart with a savvy veteran who might be the league’s most qualified Lillard stopper.
“I feel like [Lillard is] a little version of me — a guard version,” Antetokounmpo said. “He’s quiet, goes about his business, takes care of his family. When the game starts, he’s just a killer.”
Lillard, who reached the West finals once in his 11 seasons with Portland, is stepping onto the biggest stage of his career. Following the trade, the 33-year-old was greeted by thousands of Bucks fans at a welcome rally, and he has made fast friends with the face of his new franchise. Perhaps swayed by his new sidekick’s arrival, Antetokounmpo unexpectedly agreed to a three-year, $186 million contract extension with the Bucks on Monday, according to two people with knowledge of the agreement.
Lillard’s fit with the Bucks looks seamless: His defensive shortcomings should be masked by Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez, and Milwaukee is counting on him to boost an offense that was predictable and ranked 15th last season. His penchant for clutch heroics will be especially welcome on a team that struggled badly in late-game situations during a disappointing first-round playoff exit against the Miami Heat, and Milwaukee will lean heavily on its stars with a first-year coach in Adrian Griffin and a weak second unit.
“In any business, you need a closer,” ESPN analyst Doc Rivers said. “Well, they just got one. If Dame can be healthy and, at the end of games, run the pick and roll with Giannis, I don’t know who’s going to deal with that. That’s going to be very difficult.”
If Lillard’s acquisition is expected to change the shape of Milwaukee’s offense, Holiday’s move to Boston should shore up the Celtics’ defense and reframe their aggressive offseason. Before adding the five-time all-defensive team selection, Boston swapped Smart for Kristaps Porzingis in hopes of addressing a thin frontcourt rotation. But that created a hole in the backcourt, where Smart had complemented all-star wings Tatum and Jaylen Brown while endearing himself to Celtics fans with his high-energy play and disruptive defense.
Holiday steps into Smart’s old role, giving the Celtics a defensive stopper with 70 games of postseason experience to use against Lillard and the other lead guards they might come across in the playoffs. The cost, in terms of rotational depth and assets, was steep: The Celtics sent 2023 sixth man of the year Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III and two first-round draft picks to the Trail Blazers in the belief that Holiday will be the piece that helps them win their first title since 2008.
“If you’re asking me to rank which trade is the biggest, I always felt it was where Jrue ended up,” TNT analyst Reggie Miller said. “... You talk about circling games on your calendar: Those Milwaukee vs. Boston games are going to be epic.”
Holiday’s move came with a personal toll: His wife, former U.S. women’s national soccer team player Lauren Holiday, wrote on social media that they had “no warning” about the trade, which came just days after the 33-year-old guard declared he wanted to be a “Buck for life.”
“My family was established [in Milwaukee],” Jrue Holiday said. “But it’s a part of the business. I feel like coming here is definitely my best chance of winning. … Growing up in L.A. as a Laker fan, I know a lot of my family is probably hurt. I know [Boston] is a blue-collar town. They love people who work hard and put their heart into it, and that’s the type of person I am.”
Milwaukee’s Lillard trade, which came after months of rumors that he wanted to join the Miami Heat, felt like a surgical strike, and Boston’s Holiday trade was a calculated response. But Phoenix’s trade for Beal in June amounted to a preemptive move — it unfolded before free agency and furthered new owner Mat Ishbia’s commitment to making over the Suns. In February, shortly after he took control of the team, Ishbia approved the trade of multiple starters and a cache of draft picks to land a disgruntled Durant from the Brooklyn Nets.
Phoenix then lost to Denver in a second-round playoff series that offered a taste of the future when guard Chris Paul was lost to a groin injury in Game 2 and center Deandre Ayton missed Game 6 with a rib injury. Without two key starters, the Suns cranked up the pace and turned Durant and Devin Booker loose, attempting to outscore the Nuggets. That didn’t work, but Phoenix was the only playoff opponent to take the eventual champs to six games.
After years of playing deliberately with Paul at the wheel, the Suns solidified their new fun-and-gun identity by shipping the future Hall of Famer to the Washington Wizards to land a third explosive scorer in Beal, then trading Ayton to the Trail Blazers for center Jusuf Nurkic and bench players. Ishbia also fired coach Monty Williams and hired Frank Vogel to replace him during a whirlwind summer that left Booker as the only player remaining from the Suns’ run to the 2021 Finals.
Phoenix is betting on pure firepower, and Beal said he feels like a “kid in a candy store” on “easily the best team I’ve been a part of” after he spent his first 11 seasons with the Wizards.
“You can’t guard all of us at once,” Durant said.
The Suns’ overhaul raised questions about whether their roster is too top-heavy — Durant, Booker and Beal will combine to make more than $130 million, and the 2023-24 salary cap is $136 million — and whether they have enough interior defense to hold up for a long playoff run. Durant, Booker and Beal also must prove they can function without a traditional point guard, and Vogel’s vision involves all three stars giving up a little bit to accommodate one another.
“Whenever you have three great perimeter players, there has to be some sacrifice,” TNT analyst Jamal Crawford said. “With [Beal] going there and having the least playoff success out of the three, he almost becomes the de facto point guard. If he can keep that mind-set of sacrificing and setting the table for those guys, as well as having stretches where he goes off, I think that bodes well for them.”
Jokic will be surrounded by familiar faces when he accepts his first championship ring Tuesday night, but winning a second will require holding off three superstars on reimagined contenders: Antetokounmpo will form an electric inside-outside duo with Lillard, Tatum will front an impressive starting lineup that boasts elite shooting and versatile defense, and Durant will be operating in a bucket-getter’s paradise. The Bucks, Celtics and Suns pulled out all the stops this offseason. Now it’s time to see whether their best efforts will be good enough.
“You have to make Denver the favorite,” Rivers said. “Winning is hard. It just is. When you already have the knowledge to win, it gives you an advantage over everyone else.”