Open Jim: Is youth to blame for Wisconsin basketball's uneven season?

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You’re somewhat correct: UW’s best teams typically have been its older ones.

But last season’s team that won the Big Ten title was slightly less experienced than this one (I’m relying heavily on KenPom for this data).

Gard’s least experienced team was 2017-18 (Ethan Happ and a lot of young guys), followed by his first one (Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koenig and a bunch of players stepping into new roles). Last season was third, followed by this one.

So I wouldn’t necessarily blame the growing pains this season on youth. To me, it’s more about some players being not quite ready to step into bigger roles.

Tyler Wahl has the highest usage rate on the team but has been inefficient in that role. Chucky Hepburn struggled at times when asked to be the closer in close games.

I’d expect both of those players to learn from this experience and take steps forward next season. But some players go through struggles when they move up on an opponent’s scouting report: Hayes and Koenig in 2015-16 are good examples of that. I think we also saw that during the first half of the 2019-20 season following Happ’s departure.

That 2008-09 team was the last time UW was on the bubble this late in the season, but that’s really the only similarity I see.

That team ended up being one of the last teams in the NCAA Tournament, earning a No. 12 seed and upsetting Florida State in the first round.

One bad, three-week stretch put the Badgers in that precarious position that season. They lost six consecutive games from Jan. 11 to Jan. 21 but got back on track with a five-game winning streak.

That team had two seniors (Marcus Landry and Joe Krabbenhoft) and two juniors (Jason Bohannon and Trevon Hughes), so there was plenty of returning experience. The next season ended up being a better team in large part because Jon Leuer made a big jump from his sophomore to junior seasons.

Two wins would leave me feeling better about UW’s chances at getting an at-large bid, though I’d have to imagine its journey would begin with a game in Dayton.

That scenario would give the Badgers another Quad 1 win (Iowa) and another Quad 2 win (Ohio State), raising their combined total in those categories to 13. At 19-14 with seven wins in Quad 1, six in Quad 2 and no bad losses, that should be good enough compared to other teams on the bubble.

The one caveat, of course, is there could be bid stealers from other conferences that knock UW and other bubble teams down a notch or two.

That’s a what-if scenario I’ve considered many times over the last nine years. Another one came three years later when UW lost to Florida on the Chris Chiozza prayer.

The Badgers were convinced — I think they’re still convinced — that they would have gotten past South Carolina to get to the Final Four.

And I think that 2013-14 team is convinced it would have beaten UConn in the final had Aaron Harrison missed that shot.

Me? I’m not sure. That UConn team was good, and Shabazz Napier would have given the Badgers fits. I think it would have been a relatively low-scoring game that went down to the wire.

And I’m not convinced UW would have gone to the Final Four in 2017, either. That South Carolina team was tough as nails and I’m guessing that would have been a rock fight in the Elite Eight at Madison Square Garden.

While no official announcement has been made, I believe all signs point to Tyler Wahl returning for a fifth season in 2023-24.

Assuming all the key pieces return, I could see this team being a Big Ten title contender next season. I’d feel better about that claim if the Badgers can add an experienced depth piece in the front court and some scoring/shooting at the wing spot.

The numbers are fine as of now. Isaac Lindsey was put on scholarship leading into this season, but he could return to walk-on status. There already was another available scholarship. And I think it’s highly unlikely Jahcobi Neath will return on scholarship after injuries spoiled his two-season run at UW.

Additionally, I’d count on at least two players being added in the transfer portal (sorry, no names) and at least two Badgers hitting the transfer portal (sorry again, no names).

No, but Indiana was the No. 11 seed in the 2020 Big Ten tournament and was projected to be a No. 10 seed in an NCAA Tournament that was never played due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Hoosiers finished that season 20-14 and in a tie for 10th place in the Big Ten with a 9-11 record. They opened Big Ten tournament play with an 89-64 victory over Nebraska when the event — and, later, the remainder of the postseason — was canceled.

I think some people just value postseason success over regular-season success, and Gard hasn’t had enough of the former since UW’s back-to-back Sweet 16 runs in 2016 and 2017. (And some fans don’t give him credit for those because they claim he did it with “Bo’s guys,” which I think is a ridiculous argument.)

So, yes, he’s done good work in Big Ten play. The Badgers are fourth in winning percentage since he took over, trailing only Purdue, Michigan State and (just barely) Michigan.

I’ll push back a little on the Dick Bennett comparison. Bennett took over a program in 1995 that had been to the NCAA Tournament once since 1947; Gard took over a program that gone to the NCAA Tournament in 17 consecutive seasons.

Bottom line: The best way for Gard to quiet his critics would be with a deep postseason run. I don’t see that happening this season, so I’d suggest buying some ear plugs to block out the noise from the detractors who are nasty. The ability to complain on social media — and do it anonymously — has contributed to the rise in noise. Plus, there’s just a lot of unhappy people in the world and I think a part of the vitriol you see can be explained by those folks having an outlet to vent.

But I think there’s a healthy debate to be had here if both sides can do it with respect.

The fact Paul Haynes left a job in which he was a co-defensive coordinator at Minnesota to be a position coach at UW is telling to me.

Haynes and Luke Fickell worked together at Ohio State, so that familiarity played a big role in Haynes’ decision. It’s also possible Haynes sees a higher ceiling for the Badgers under Fickell than the one Minnesota has under Fleck.

So while I think Haynes probably was talking more about Fickell, it’s possible this is a situation in which it’s a little bit of both.

UW coach Mark Johnson said Tuesday he likes the way his team played down the stretch.

The Badgers are plenty battled tested, with five of their past seven games against either Minnesota or Ohio State.

I like the draw. Not sure I’d call it favorable, but it’s manageable.

Let’s go with this for a prediction: UW cruises past LIU and squeaks past Colgate to get to the Frozen Four, where Minnesota ends the Badgers’ season.