One lingering source of worry over the ongoing trade rumor saga that has Boston Celtics star wing Jaylen Brown’s unlikely chances of signing a contract extension with his current team.
As a supposed player of interest in rumored talks between the Celtics and the Brooklyn Nets for veteran forward Kevin Durant, the lack of commitment from the Georgia native has a subset of fans concerned Brown might be a flight risk at the end of his current deal. But the truth is that however the Cal-Berkeley product feels about the Celtics and the city of Boston, Brown has substantial financial incentives to avoid an extension.
More importantly, he has even larger ones to remain with the Celtics.
That of course does not always beat out other concerns a player might have and does not guarantee that the former No. 3 pick of the 2016 NBA draft will return to the team that drafted him when he (as he almost certainly will) hits unrestricted free agency.
But a recent analysis from Spotrac’s Keith Smith laid out not only why Brown is unlikely to consider extending, but also what he stands to gain by returning to the Celtics.
Currently owed $28,741,071 for the looming 2022-23 season and another $30,723,214 for the 2023-24 season, the Marietta native is easily playing at the level of a max player while earning slightly less than that amount.
Brown has a number of options available to him in terms of paths he can take regarding where he will play and how much it will pay him to do so; let’s take a look at the high points of Smith’s breakdown (and be sure to read the entire piece for the details).
Veteran extension
This option would potentially bring back as much as $119,451,858 over three seasons beyond his current deal, or $165,168,002 over four seasons.
But because Brown stands to lose a fair amount of potential earnings, this is widely seen as unlikely to happen.
If, however, he were to earn a nod to All-NBA, MVP, or Defensive Player of the Year next season, he would then be able to be offered…
Designated Veteran extension
This would most likely be via an All-NBA nod, which is not that wild of a bet to place on oneself given how close to that level pf play he demonstrated last season.
It would have to wait until the end of the 2022-23 season to be signed, as it requires seven years of service in the league to Brown’s current six years, but would also allow him to earn up to 35% of the cap vs. the current 30%.
In terms of earnings, that could translate to $290,290,000, among the larger deals ever signed, almost doubling what he could make extending this offseason.
Designated Veteran contract
If Brown did not pull the above off next season but managed it in 2023-24, he would be eligible for this contract (as opposed to an extension) the following offseason.
In an interesting wrinkle, he would also be eligible for a potential no-trade clause in the vein of Bradley Beal’s recent deal with the Washington Wizards — something that might appeal after hearing one’s name mentioned so often in trade rumors.
Re-signing as an unrestricted free agent in 2024
This final option is probably the most likely outcome and would see Brown earning 30% of the cap for as long as a five-year deal that could return $248,820,000.
That makes it quite lucrative to the Georgia native to return to Boston in any potential outcome available to him by tens of millions of dollars.
That’s certainly far from the only thing to consider, but so long as the Celtics look like a good option to contend, there isn’t much else to be done on Boston’s end.
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