Recent articles from Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale and Heavy’s Ryan Aston have speculated about the Houston Rockets as a potential trade destination for Miami sharpshooter Duncan Robinson.
It’s not as if the Rockets would desperately want Robinson, of course. While an excellent 3-point shooter, Robinson’s defensive limitations eventually led to him falling out of Miami’s rotation in the 2022 playoffs. That’s not an ideal fit for a Houston squad that wants improvement on defense after ranking dead last in the NBA last season.
But the thinking presumably goes as follows: With Houston in a rebuild and not attempting to win a championship in the short-term, they can take on negative contracts in exchange for draft capital as sweetener.
From Miami’s perspective, they could open up longer-term financial flexibility while simultaneously bringing in a veteran such as Christian Wood or Eric Gordon, with each being a clear upgrade to Robinson.
Upon a closer look, though, here’s why it probably won’t make sense for the Rockets in the 2022 offseason. Perhaps in 2023, but not today.
Proposed trades
Dan Favale, Bleacher Report:
Miami Heat receive: Eric Gordon
Houston Rockets receive: Duncan Robinson, 2023 first-round pick (top-eight protection; turns into two seconds if not conveyed), 2026 second-round pick (via Miami, least favorable from Dallas, OKC and Philadelphia)
Ryan Aston, Heavy:
Houston Rockets receive: Duncan Robinson, Omer Yurtseven and a top-eight protected 2023 first-round pick
Miami Heat receive: Christian Wood
Why Houston probably won’t do it
What outsiders are missing, when it comes to the Rockets potentially accepting “negative value” contracts in 2022, is how unique their timeline is when compared to most other NBA rebuilds.
Because of the team’s future draft-pick obligations to Oklahoma City (from the 2019 Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade), which kick back in with the 2023-24 season, the Rockets have an incentive to turn things around quickly. This coming campaign (2022-23) is the last year until 2026-27 in which Houston will fully control its own draft pick.
With that timeline presumably in mind, Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta recently referred to the team making a “big move” by 2023-24. Houston has no interest in losing lots of games if the only benefit to that (a better draft pick) would be headed to the Thunder and not the Rockets.
As it currently stands, Houston is projected to have significant salary cap room in the 2023 offseason — enough to add at least one maximum-salaried contract via free agency or a trade — due to the large expiring salaries of Wood, John Wall, and Gordon (team option).
By swapping a player like Wood or Gordon for Duncan Robinson, whose bloated contract will pay him approximately $18 million per year while running through at least the 2024-25 season (with a partial guarantee of $9.9 million for 2025-26), the Rockets would be giving up prematurely on any greater plans for that cap space a year from now. The same holds true with any other “salary dump” candidate in 2022.
While there are certainly no guarantees when it comes to those bigger plans, there’s significant upside value in having the ability to try. Along the same lines, there’s a misguided notion from some that the Rockets may feel compelled to get “something” for players on expiring contracts (like Wood and Gordon), rather than risk potentially losing them for nothing in 2023 free agency. In reality, cap flexibility is not nothing.
Moreover, the draft incentive in the proposed trades isn’t particularly special. It’s one future pick with top-eight protection, and for a 2022-23 season in which the team sending it out (Miami) is expected to be a title contender. Thus, the pick would likely be low in the 2023 first round.
Finally, consider that Houston already has significant incoming future draft capital from Brooklyn and Milwaukee. It’s not as if the Rockets are desperate for any draft asset they can find, regardless of placement.
Now, if the Heat were to offer more incentive, could that change things? Theoretically, yes. If the Rockets could get two future first-round picks, particularly with minimal protections, that could be enough asset value (especially with how it could help Houston’s future trade offers) to where general manager Rafael Stone might be willing to give up some financial flexibility in 2023 to take on a negative contract today (with sweetener).
But, the problem with that scenario is…
Miami has other alternatives
It’s not as if Houston is the only rebuilding team with a veteran player that Miami might want and/or has the potential ability to accept Robinson’s contract. In theory, yes, there could come a point at which the Heat offer the Rockets so much incentive with future draft capital that Houston is willing to bypass peak 2023 financial flexibility for the asset haul.
In reality, however, there are many other rebuilding clubs that Miami could turn to, instead. Since most of those teams don’t have the unique timeline that Houston does (due to the future draft-pick obligations to Oklahoma City, starting with 2023-24), they may not be planning to be as aggressive in 2023. That might make them more willing to accept a player like Robinson without an over-the-top asset haul attached.
Conclusion
As far as Duncan Robinson and any other potential “salary dump” candidates this offseason, it comes down to this:
Because of Houston’s unique timeline and the upside of having financial means to make aggressive moves in 2023, the other team would probably have to pay a premium to offload a negative value player to Houston in a way that they might not with another rebuilding club. They would have to value Christian Wood or Eric Gordon extremely highly for that to make sense, and it seems doubtful that will occur, since the Rockets clearly explored moving both players at the February 2022 trade deadline but apparently did not find enough interest to get a deal to the finish line.
In short: If it makes sense for Houston, it probably won’t for Miami. And if it makes sense for the Heat, it likely won’t for the Rockets.
Because of each team’s organizational timeline, it’s hard to find an acceptable middle ground at this time. That could change in 2023, if the Rockets strike out on larger pursuits with that salary flexibility. At that point, it could make sense to then use some of that cap space on a negative asset for the upside of replenishing the future draft stockpile.
But for now, in 2022, there’s significant value to Stone and the Rockets in having the ability to think bigger in 2023.