The Charlotte Hornets (15-13) stop by American Airlines Center Monday for an 8:30 p.m. ET game against the Dallas Mavericks (13-13). Below, we look at the Hornets vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Charlotte has won just two of its last six games (5-1 ATS) but the four losses came against the Milwaukee Bucks, Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers (twice). The Hornets are 17-11 ATS and 17-10-1 O/U with the 14th-best non-garbage time net rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CtG).
Dallas is 3-5 overall and ATS and 1-7 O/U with the 19th-best non-garbage time efficiency differential over the past two weeks (CtG). The Mavs hammered the Oklahoma City Thunder 103-84 Sunday without G Luka Doncic, covering as 4-point road favorites.
These teams split their two meetings last season with the road team winning and covering both and the Under cashed in each contest.
Hornets at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:34 p.m. ET.
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Hornets at Mavericks key injuries
Hornets
PF P.J. Washington (illness) probable PG LaMelo Ball (health and safety protocols) out SF Jalen McDaniels (health and safety protocols) out PG Ish Smith (health and safety protocols) out C Mason Plumlee (health and safety protocols) outMavericks
SF Luka Doncic (ankle) outHornets at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Hornets 113, Mavericks 107
Money line
BET the HORNETS (+115) because they have an edge in the head coaching matchup and Charlotte’s offense matches up very well against Dallas’s defense.
The Mavs have been stomped by quality offenses: Dallas is 0-6 SU with a minus-13.8 efficiency differential (ranked 25th) and a minus-7.8 ATS margin (ranked 28th) against teams in the top 10 of offensive efficiency (CtG).
Charlotte attempts the third-highest volume of field goals at the rim and Dallas ranks dead-last in defensive field goal percentage versus shots at the rim.
The Mavs are also 23rd in defensive 3-point percentage while the Hornets shoot the highest percentage from behind the arc. Plus, Charlotte has the second-best shot quality while Dallas’ has the second-worst shot quality allowed per CtG.
Dallas speeds up the tempo when Luka is off the floor and that could work against the Mavs in this spot because the Hornets have the 11th-best transition offensive efficiency.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the HORNETS +2.5 (-107) because that’s how the presumed “sharp” side of the market is betting whereas the public is rolling with the Mavs.
Roughly 75% of the cash wagered is on Charlotte but nearly 60% of the action is on Dallas according to pregame.com at the time of writing. Typically, in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s counter to the public.
Moreover, the Mavs aren’t very profitable as home favorites. Dallas is 13-23 ATS with a minus-5.3 spread differential as a home favorite since the beginning of last season.
That said, my favorite wager in this game is Charlotte’s money line.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 216.5 (-108) because the Over is 7-0-1 in Charlotte’s last eight games, the Hornets have one of the worst defenses in the NBA and the Mavs move the ball pretty well when Luka isn’t on the floor.
However, I’m noticing some “reverse line movement” in the betting market as this total opened at 218, most of the action is on the Over but the number is being lowered. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
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