It’s not likely, but it wouldn’t be shocking: That’s the mantra of the NCAA Tournament.
For example, look at Michigan, which boasts a Big Ten championship, an experienced lineup under coach John Beilein, and a No. 3 seed in the West region. They’re a popular pick to at least make the Sweet 16 and hit No. 2 North Carolina in Los Angeles.
But their first-round opponent Montana is no schmuck, and simply assuming the Wolverines (28-7, 13-5 Big Ten) even advance to their next game is foolish. The Grizzlies (26-7, 16-2 Big Sky) have serious talent on their side, and an eagerness to win their first tournament game since 2006. If the upset happens, here’s why:
Montana's guard Ahmaad Rorie pushes the ball against Eastern Washington during the Big Sky Championship. Rorie and the Grizzlies look to upset the Wolverines.
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1. Montana has two dynamic guards: Oregon transfer Ahmaad Rorie leads the team in scoring with 17.2 points per game, but junior Michael Oguine isn’t far behind at 15.8. Both finished in the top 11 in their conference in scoring, and Rorie finished third in the conference with 3.7 assists a night.
Michigan’s answer: The Wolverines already faced five guards who average more points per game than Rorie and Oguine, and they still held opponents to a Big Ten-best 63.5 points per game.
Montana's Jamar Akoh grabs a rebound against Eastern Washington.
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2. The Grizzlies will finish with more rebounds: Led by forward Jamar Akoh’s 6.7 rebounds per game, they finished third in the Big Sky in offensive rebounds and second on defense. The Grizzlies almost averaged five more boards than their opponents this year, while the Wolverines finished ninth in the Big Ten in rebound margin.
Michigan’s answer: It’s all going to come down to Moritz Wagner — the offense runs through him as he leads the team in scoring, but perhaps more importantly, he’s the Wolverines’ leading rebounder at 7.1 boards per game.
3. Montana forces more turnovers: Michigan’s calling card this year was capitalizing on the opponent’s miscues, but the Grizzlies finished with the second-best turnover margin in the Big Sky. They also managed 7.8 steals per game to Michigan’s 6.3.
Michigan’s answer: The Wolverines do exactly what they’ve done all year. They led the Big Ten in turnover margin and scored 14.7 points a night off turnovers. Sophomore guard Zavier Simpson, a Lima native who leads the team in steals, will have to continue to pickpocket in the tournament.
4. Michigan’s bench players can’t contribute: In all of Michigan’s losses since early December, their opponents held the Wolverines’ second unit to less than 20 points. One egregious example is a one-point loss to Purdue (a No. 2 seed elsewhere in the bracket), where their bench only scored four points.
Michigan’s answer: They have been getting points off the bench as of late. Just look at their Big Ten title run, where those scorers surpassed 20 points in three out of the four games.
5. The Grizzlies are hot right now: Montana has only lost twice since Christmas, and both on back-to-back road games decided by nine points or less. They later avenged one of those losses, which was to Eastern Washington, in their 17-point Big Sky title game win.
Michigan’s answer: The Wolverines are just as hot, if not hotter. They’ve won nine straight games, three of which were against ranked opponents. Momentum is certainly on their side as much as the Grizzlies’.
Contact Jimmy Miller at [email protected], 419-724-6050, or on Twitter @miller_jimmy.