San Diego State vs. New Mexico odds: MWC tournament picks from expert on 10-3 run

A trip to the NCAA Tournament is on the line Saturday when San Diego State squares off against New Mexico at 6 p.m. ET in the Mountain West tournament championship. The Aztecs are favored by four points, up half-a-point from the opening line. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, sits at 150.5.

Before you make any kind of pick on this matchup with so much at stake, you need to hear what SportsLine analyst Josh Nagel has to say.

Nagel is a Nevada-based expert with almost two decades of experience in the handicapping industry. He has won multiple handicapping contests and specializes in picking college sports. And he's been crushing his recent basketball picks, putting together a scorching 10-3 record on his against-the-spread selections. Anybody following him in March is way, way up.

Now, Nagel has studied every angle of this MWC showdown and has locked in his strong point-spread pick. He's only sharing it over at SportsLine.

Nagel has taken into account San Diego State's strong recent performances. The Aztecs have won eight consecutive games, which includes a dominant 17-point victory over top-seed Nevada in the semifinals.

They've done it thanks to a stingy defense. The Aztecs, who have held their opponents to 64 points or fewer in five of their last seven games, are allowing just 67.5 points per game.

But just because San Diego State's defense has smothered its opponents this season doesn't mean it will be able to cover the spread in such a marquee game.

The Aztecs are just 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games against the Lobos. Meanwhile, New Mexico, which has defeated the Aztecs in three consecutive meetings, is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games overall.

So which side of San Diego State vs. New Mexico should you back on Saturday? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of San Diego State-New Mexico you should back, all from a veteran handicapper on a scorching 10-3 run on his college basketball ATS picks.