Fairfield vs. Iona odds: 2018 MAAC Championship Game picks from advanced computer model

One team is going dancing after the Monday night MAAC championship game between Iona and Fairfield at 7 p.m. ET. Iona is favored by four points, up one point from the opening line. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 154, up two from the open.

In a clash of two teams you might not have seen play this year, you need to see what SportsLine's Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, was an impressive 755-636-20 on A-rated picks last season, returning $6,529 to any $100 player who followed it. And it enters this week of conference title game on a 12-6 streak on its top-rated college hoops picks, an amazing win percentage of just under 70.

Now, the computer has examined every matchup, every player and every trend for the MAAC title game. We can tell you it's expecting 158 points to be scored, clearing the over by four points. And it also has a strong pick for one side of the spread, saying you can bank on it nearly 55 percent of the time.

The computer has taken into account Fairfield's late-season surge that has put the Stags in position to punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

After a slow start in conference play, the Stags (17-15) won their last four games of the regular season and have flown through the conference tournament thus far, winning all three games by double-figures.

But just because it has been the MAAC's most surprising team down the stretch doesn't mean that Fairfield will be able to keep this matchup against Iona (19-13) competitive with so much on the line.

The Gaels have a top-flight offense that averages just under 80 points per game and comes into this matchup ranked in the top 50 nationally. It's a balanced attack that features five players who average double-digit scoring on offense to boot.

And Iona is 10-8 against the spread in games played away from home this season, while Fairfield has struggled to a 6-11 mark ATS when on the road or a neutral floor this season.

So what side do you need to be all over in the MAAC Championship Game? Visit SportsLine now to check out the strong against-the-spread pick for Iona vs. Fairfield from the computer model that's on a 12-6 streak on its top-rated pick.