Loyola-Chicago vs. Illinois State odds: MVC tournament championship game picks from proven model

An NCAA Tournament automatic bid is on the line Sunday between the Illinois State Redbirds and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers when they tip off at 2:05 p.m. ET for the Missouri Valley Conference title. You can catch the game on CBS.

Illinois State needed overtime to knock off Southern Illinois in one semifinal, while Loyola-Chicago broke away late from Bradley in the other.

The Ramblers opened as nine-point favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas believes will be scored, is 137.

Before picking either side of the MVC tournament final, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered the weekend on a red-hot 7-1 streak on its recent college basketball picks.

Now, the computer has examined every matchup, every player and every trend for Illinois State vs. Loyola-Chicago. We can tell you it's leaning toward the Under, but has locked in an against-the-spread pick that hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can see that one at SportsLine.

The model knows Loyola-Chicago's best chance to keep it within the spread -- or win outright -- is to free up star guard Clayton Custer on the perimeter. He leads the team in scoring and is fierce from beyond the arc, knocking down 45 percent of his three-pointers.

Illinois State can cover the spread by feeding the rock to junior forward Milik Yarbrough in the paint. He's averaging 16.7 points, 6.6 boards and 4.7 assists. The Redbirds will need to get him involved inside and Keyshawn Evans ready from outside. The team's best guard is hitting 43 percent of his shots from downtown.

Loyola-Chicago is 13-4 against the spread in its past 17 games, but the underdog is 9-0 ATS in the previous nine head-to-head matchups.

What side of Illinois State vs. Loyola-Chicago do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to check out the against-the-spread pick for Illinois State vs. Loyola-Chicago that's hitting over 50 percent of the time from the computer model on a 7-1 against the spread run.