Duke vs. Carolina: Who goes further in the NCAA Tournament?
Who ya got?
I'm not even sure I needed Duke's resounding second-half comeback on Saturday night, which resulted in a 74-64 home victory against the defending champs, to give me the obvious answer:
I got Duke. All the way.
This is where North Carolina fans should point out -- correctly! -- that I doubted their squad the past two seasons, in which they finished national runner-up and national champs. So maybe my Carolina Doubt is a blessing in disguise for UNC fans.
Fair enough.
But come on, seriously: Who ya gonna take this season, out of anyone in the country, over Duke?
Villanova? Yeah, the Wildcats were my preseason pick to win it all. And they're the only team I might choose over Duke, given their experience, their amazing point guard play (Jalen Brunson over Trae Young for national player of the year, amiright?), and the fact that the whole team seems cosmically attuned to Jay Wright's brain.
Michigan State? Ain't gonna argue with that, at least not too much. Michigan State is the only team that can compete with Duke on sheer talent. They're one of three teams to be ranked in the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency (Gonzaga and, you guessed it, Duke), they have two lottery picks in Jaren Jackson and Miles Bridges, they have a stud point guard in sophomore Cassius Winston, and they can shoot it from deep as well as nearly anyone (41.3 percent from 3, fifth in the country).
No. 1 Virginia? Hmmm ... well, that's a dominant defense, certainly. One of the most dominant in recent memory. But are they talented enough, just in terms of NBA talent? Almost every team that wins it all has a couple, if not more than a couple, of dudes that go on to the NBA. Virginia has De'Andre Hunter. After that? I mean ...Tony Bennett? Dude is certainly going to be an NBA coach someday, right?
Look at Duke. Hall of Fame coach, duh. But they also might be the first team in college hoops history to have all five of their starters -- point guard Trevon Duval, shooting guard Grayson Allen, wing Gary Trent Jr., and big men Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. -- drafted in the first round. Duke is the most talented team in college hoops. It's not particularly close.
The scary thing is, despite the concerns about this team's defense earlier in the season (now ranked 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency!), and despite the concerns about point guard play (Duval, who fueled Duke's second-half comeback on Saturday!), and despite the idiotic worries from a certain broadcaster about whether Bagley is a "selfish" player (I just ... I mean ... what?!?), Duke is peaking at the exact time when it is supposed to be peaking.
On Saturday night, the Blue Devils fell behind in a big way -- down 13 with 17 minutes left -- and then they came back and killed it. Duval was everything he came to Duke advertised as, a slashing, driving, dishing stud. Bagley was a monster. Allen was the emotional leader on an emotional senior night. Carter was solid throughout, and Trent made big threes when they mattered most. Bagley, who missed four games in February due to injury, scored 18 of his 21 points in the second half. Duke looked awesome.
As for Carolina? I'm not going to ding the Tar Heels for losing at Duke on Allen's senior night. They are a worthy bunch; I don't know if they'll be a 2-seed or a 3-seed, but either way, UNC will be a terrifying draw. Joel Berry is an absolute killer, one of the rarest commodities in college basketball: a stud senior point guard. Luke Maye has been one of the biggest surprises in college basketball. And yet UNC's success depends on the frustratingly brilliant Theo Pinson. At his best, he's Draymond Green Lite. At his worst, he's a head scratcher.
For all these reasons and more, it seems pretty obvious to me: When it comes to March, pick Duke to go further than UNC.
In fact, pick Duke to go further than anyone*.
* Except Villanova. And, maybe, Michigan State. Give me a week to give you a firm answer. Cool? Cool.