Another week of mediocrity for Weekend Wagers.
Sure, I wasn’t below .500 last week, but going 3-3 still costs the 10% “juice” sportsbooks charge.
The alternate under in the scenic Dolphins-Bills game never stood a chance, and Colts +4 never should have been as much of a sweat as it was after Indianapolis blew a 33-0 halftime lead to Kirk Cousins and company.
Poor Matt Ryan, guy can never catch a break.
Anyway, a vanilla performance last week advances my season record to 50-34 (59.5 percent) — 27-20 in college and 21-12 on NFL.
With only one bowl game on the table for the holiday weekend, I’m turning all focus to the professional league on this ridiculously cold Christmas Eve.
Christmas is about spending time with family, so for that reason — and the fact this NFL slate seems tricky — my card is short and sweet with just three plays.
Here they are...
Game 1: New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m., FOX)
In terms of time to prepare, you may think the Giants are at a slight disadvantage here having played in the Sunday night game, where they survived a late threatening drive from the Commanders to hold on, 20-13, for an impressive divisional win on the road.
However, the Vikings’ unprecedented comeback had to be emotionally draining, as it was the biggest comeback in league history.
Minnesota holds just a +2 point differential despite owning an 11-3 record, but then again, New York’s NFC side is -25 in that department despite sitting at 8-5-1.
While the Vikings are still playing for playoff seeding, they still secured the NFC North title with last week’s victory, leading me to believe the Giants have more to play for as they’re still battling to simply qualify for a postseason spot.
Minnesota may win this game, but if it does, it will be one of its traditional one-possession nailbiters.
The standard total is 48.5 as of press time, which stood out as high to me.
But then again, while the majority of the league will be suffering the effects of record-low temperatures this season, this contest will be played in the stable 72-degree climate inside U.S. Bank Stadium.
Points will be scored by both sides here, so let’s make a teaser.
The pick: Giants +11.5 and over 40.5 (-120).
Game 2: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (1 p.m., not locally televised)
Contrary to the cozy indoor environment the Giants and the Vikings are fortunate enough to be playing in, Nashville’s feel-like temperature is projected to be just six degrees at kickoff in this AFC South battle.
With wind gusts as strong as 25 MPH, both offenses will likely lean on their run games, leading to a somewhat-continuous clock and longer drives and hopefully fewer points.
Now, this is going to be the 86th column pick this season, yet the first to include a player prop.
Betting on specific players to perform a certain way is the new trendy way to bet among people my age, but I’m not a big fan of it, as it can be trickier to track how well those bets are doing when they’re live, especially when it’s not in a standalone game.
But Derrick Henry versus the Texans is worthy of an expection?
Why?
Because in his last four games against Houston he has rushed for 211, 212, 250 and 219 yards, respectively.
He loves playing the Texans, plus, he traditionally performs better later on in the season.
How many defenders on a 1-12-1 team that is playing for nothing are going to want to try to wrangle a 6-foot-3, 250-pound bruising running back, especially when the inevitable stingers will hurt more in such a cold environment?
In my opinion, not many.
The pick: Derrick Henry over 84.5 rushing yards and under 45.5 points scored in the game (-125).
Game 3: Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (8:15 p.m., NFL Network)
Today is 50 years plus a day since the “Immaculate Reception,” regarded as the most famous play in NFL history.
The author of that play, Steelers legend and Hall of Famer Franco Harris, was scheduled to have his No. 32 finally retired in a ceremony at halftime of tonight’s game, especially since that famous game a half-century ago was played against the Raiders.
Unfortunately, Harris, 72, passed away Tuesday night.
Pittsburgh will be playing with even more emotion than usual in this Christmas Eve primetime game, and the crowd could have a bigger impact than it usually does as well.
The Raiders are coming off a game they had no business of winning for reasons that I won’t even delve into. As a Patriots fan, I don’t want to rip that new scab off just yet.
Bottom line is, despite neither of these teams being mathematically eliminated from postseason contention yet, neither one of them is all that good.
I’ll take the better defense that’s playing with its heart on its sleeve.
The pick: Steelers moneyline -120.