PlayAction: Browns' Nick Chubb will test Bills' numbers in the run front

It likes to keep two safeties back and defend the run with a “light box” – six men near the line of scrimmage – or a “neutral box” – seven men in the area between the offensive tackles.

Will the Bills alter their plan against the rushing threat of the Cleveland Browns?

It will be an interesting thing to watch in Sunday’s game. Will the Bills need to bring an eighth man – safety Jordan Poyer, if he plays – up toward the line to stop the run?

Cleveland ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing, averaging 160 yards a game. The Browns were fourth last year and third in 2020. Lead running back Nick Chubb ranks third in the league in rushing yards with 904 and first in rushing touchdowns with 11. Backup Kareem Hunt has 314 yards and led the NFL in rushing in 2017.

“They’re a run-first team,” said Bills defensive tackle Tim Settle on Thursday. “It’s not going to be a pretty game. It’s going to be a real physical game. Let’s go. Let’s rumble.”

“They have a really good O-line, and they’ve been together for a few years now,” said defensive tackle DaQuan Jones. “They have a two-headed monster back there at running back. And they show a little bit of everything – outside zone, inside zone, gap scheme, counters, powers.”

The 81-yard touchdown run by Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook last week was an example of the Bills playing with five defensive backs in a seven-man front against the Vikings’ “big personnel” – two tight ends. The Vikings did a good job blocking at the point of attack, no Bills got off their blocks. That left just one defender, cornerback Christian Benford, to make the tackle. He missed.

The Browns major in the outside zone play, which the Bills have seen a lot of this season. The running back picks his hole based on how the defense flows.

The Bills ask their defensive ends to set a firm edge to make it hard for the back to get outside. And the Bills want their linemen penetrating to disrupt the blocking.

“When you play outside zone teams, you can’t go sideways with them,” Jones said. “Our job is to get penetration. We have to do a good job of setting edges and maintain our gaps and then rallying as a defense.”

The Browns like to use two-tight-end personnel, and they like to bring on an extra offensive linemen a bunch, 10 or more plays in a game, like the Bills do with Bobby Hart.

That could force the Bills to use their base, 4-3 defense, which could put Tyrel Dodson and rookie Terrel Bernard on the field with Matt Milano. That’s three guys who don’t have a lot of snaps together filling gaps. Tremaine Edmunds could sit out with a groin injury. The Bills used their “regular” 4-3 front on four plays vs. Minnesota.

“We’ve just got to do a good job of not giving up the explosives,” said defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. “That explosive run that Dalvin had really put a damper on some of the good things we were doing against the run. And Chubb is another type of back who you can stop, and stop, and stop, and all of the sudden he can break one.”

Play action threat

The Browns are the seventh most run-heavy team in the NFL, running on 48.3% of all plays. They run on 60.9% of first downs.

Not surprisingly, the Browns are pretty effective when they run play-action fakes. Jacoby Brissett ranks No. 2 in the NFL in yards per attempt on play-action passes, at 10.0, according to Pro Football Focus. It’s no surprise that No. 1 is Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill, who benefits defenses ganging up on star running back Derrick Henry.

Brissett is completing 69.8% of his passes off play action, 11th best in the NFL among starters.

Brissett is on his fourth team in nine NFL seasons. He’s 17-29 as a starter.

The 30,000-foot view

Browns fans are longer suffering than Bills fans. Cleveland and Detroit are the only long-standing franchises that never have gone to the Super Bowl. The other two are Jacksonville and the Houston Texans. Since 2000, the Browns have just two playoff seasons (2002 and 2020) and never have won the AFC North. The Browns’ record since 2000 is an NFL-worst 121-240 (.335). Detroit is next worst at 125-235 (.348). The Bills are 167-195 (.461) since 2000. The Browns have 12 playoff seasons since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. The Bills have 17 playoff seasons since the merger.

Stats for the road

Browns offensive line coach Bill Callahan, 66, is in his 28th year in the NFL and his 47th year in coaching. He was head coach of the Raiders when they went to the Super Bowl in the 2002 season. Callahan has coached on a top-10 rushing team in 12 of his NFL seasons, with five different teams (Cleveland, Dallas, the Jets, Oakland and Philadelphia). . . . The Browns are 32nd in punt coverage. . . . As you would expect with a running team, Cleveland is in the shotgun the fourth least in the league (53%). The Bills are in the shotgun the eight most (76%). . . . Cleveland’s defense is 31st in points allowed. . . . The Browns’ run game is very good when it gets into goal-to-go situations, and that’s when they often will put an extra lineman on the field. They’ve been in the top 11 three years in a row. . . . The Browns like to play a lot of two-high safety looks on early downs.