05/11/2024

Inside Tennessee-Georgia, Week 10's other top games

Viernes 04 de Noviembre del 2022

Inside Tennessee-Georgia, Week 10's other top games

The huge Tennessee-Georgia showdown takes center stage, but there's plenty more intrigue as the college football season hits high gear.

The huge Tennessee-Georgia showdown takes center stage, but there's plenty more intrigue as the college football season hits high gear.

In this weekly college football preview space, we talk about just about everything. We eat the whole cow. We embrace all the little nooks and crannies of this ridiculously huge sport.

When there's a big game, however, we embrace that, too.

It's No. 1 vs. No. 2 week. When Tennessee and Georgia kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, it will be only the third time since 2006 that the top two teams in the AP poll have played in the regular season. Granted, the College Football Playoff committee made everything messy by ranking Georgia third, but don't be fooled: This one's special.

To be sure, there are all sorts of other things to talk about in a hectic and exciting Week 10 -- a potentially incredible Alabama-LSU undercard, this week's latest huge and entertaining Big 12 games, Clemson's toughest remaining game (from a win probability perspective), a particularly odd Florida State-Miami matchup, some bitter and underrated rivalry games, a potential Friday night monsoon game in Seattle and another huge game for Sacramento State's Cardiac Hornets -- we'll get to all that below. But first, we dive deep into the biggest game of the season.

Here's everything you need to follow in a dynamite Week 10.

Note: CFP rankings are used below, whether they confuse the "No. 1 vs. No. 2" vibe or not.


No. 1 vs. No. 2 and Tennessee's latest "biggest game in decades"

No. 1 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia (3:30 p.m., CBS)

The SEC is known for history and rivalries, and justifiably so. But the conference's old scheduling policies -- both its tiny conference schedules (six games or so into the 1980s) and what amounted to almost a "schedule whoever you want" policy -- renders that history strange. Georgia has played Auburn 127 times ... and East division rival Tennessee just 51 times. The Bulldogs and Volunteers met just seven times from 1938 until the formation of the East division in 1992, and really, this rivalry has only one marquee run. From 1998 to 2005, the teams met when they were both in the top 10 four times. They hadn't done it before, and they haven't done it since. Until Saturday, anyway.

This is the biggest Tennessee-Georgia game ever. It would be fair to wonder if Josh Heupel's Volunteers, in their first-ever CFP race, might falter in the moment, but considering they have already won the biggest Tennessee-Florida game in 20 years and the biggest Tennessee-Alabama game in maybe 30, I'm guessing the odds are low. They have risen to the moment all season, and last week, given a chance to fall into a perfect trap-game situation against a rugged and physical Kentucky team, they instead played their best game so far, rolling 44-6. They're ready. Now they have to prove they're superior to Georgia.

It's elite-vs.-elite when Tennessee has the ball.

Tennessee currently ranks second in offensive SP+, while Georgia, despite playing with just two of last year's defensive starters, ranks second on defense. The Vols rank first in points per drive, and the Dawgs rank second in points allowed. This is about as high-level as it gets.

Absent a ton of elite playmakers, Georgia hasn't produced nearly as much disruption as it did a year ago. The Dawgs rank just 122nd in sacks per dropback and 91st in havoc rate (tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups and forced fumbles divided by total plays). They overcome this with speed, pursuit and tackling ability, and it works against virtually everyone. We were stunned when they gave up 22 points a couple of times earlier this season, which speaks to where the bar is set.

The Dawgs rarely blitz (just 87th in blitzes per dropback), but against Tennessee's ridiculous offense, Georgia might have to take a few more risks. And it would do so without its security blanket, outside linebacker and TFLs leader Nolan Smith, who's out for the season.

Few people in this world love anything more than Josh Heupel loves a fast guy lining up in the slot.

When Heupel was Missouri's offensive coordinator in 2016 and '17, Jonathan Johnson caught 65 passes for 1,159 yards (17.8 per catch). When Heupel was UCF's head coach, Dredrick Snelson caught 43 for 688 (16.0) in 2018, Marlon Williams and Jacob Harris combined to catch 70 for 1,165 (16.6) in 2019, and Williams alone caught 71 for 1,039 (14.6) in 2020.

Jalin Hyatt, however, has quickly become the perfect playmaker. Projected over a 13-game season (which might be conservative at this point), he is on pace for 73 catches, 1,474 yards (20.2) and 23 touchdowns in 2022. For the season, only two FBS receivers have produced more than the nine touchdowns Hyatt has scored in three weeks. When leading receiver Cedric Tillman went down with injury, Hyatt was forced into a feature role. It has worked out absurdly well, and now Tillman is back in the rotation.

In Kelee Ringo, Georgia has at least one verifiably elite cornerback, and the two most frequently lined up with him, sophomore Kamari Lassiter and freshman Daylen Everette, have allowed a combined 12-for-30 passing with two interceptions as primary coverage guys. But Tennessee's success with Hyatt in the slot forces Kirby Smart to make a tough decision. Does he cover Hyatt with his No. 1 corner? Does he just rely on safety types -- junior Tykee Smith, sophomore Javon Bullard or freshman Malaki Starks -- like he would against mortal offenses? And how much pressure does he think he needs on quarterback and Heisman co-favorite Hendon Hooker to make sure he can't look deep as much?

play
1:12

Dinich: CFP ranking makes it clear Georgia must beat Tennessee

Heather Dinich shares her takeaways from the first College Football Playoff ranking of the season.

Statistically, Georgia's offensive advantages are bigger than Tennessee's.

Despite a lack of big-play passing, the Dawgs still rank eighth in offensive SP+ and fifth in points per drive. Daijun Edwards has emerged as Georgia's top runner, averaging 7.0 yards per carry with six touchdowns over the last three weeks. He runs angry, and while the Dawgs might lack a "line up and go deep" weapon out wide, tight ends Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington have combined for 50 catches, 879 yards and 3 touchdowns.

You could say that Georgia's offense is a better, more talented version of Kentucky's. But Tennessee completely shut down the Wildcats a week ago. The Vols could be up for the task against the increasingly mean UGA run game -- they rank eighth in rushing success rate allowed and ninth in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line). Neither Kentucky's Chris Rodriguez Jr. nor Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs could top even 4.5 yards per carry, and Florida and LSU backs combined to average just 2.6.

The Vols could therefore put pressure on Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett in a couple of different ways.

First, if Tennessee is able to hang a solid point total on the Dawgs' defense, it could bring back some of the demons of 2020, when Georgia got forced into track meets by Alabama and Florida, and Bennett pressed and made some crippling errors trying to keep up. Second, the Vols could force him to throw more than he would prefer when behind schedule. Granted, the Dawgs rank first nationally in passing downs success rate -- Bennett has some of the best "catch up to the chains" playmakers in college football. But in the three games in which he was pressured most often on dropbacks (Missouri, Florida and, strangely, Kent State), he went just 9-for-24 passing and took quite a few hits. Tennessee doesn't sack the quarterback a ton, but ranks ninth in blitzes per dropback and 11th in pressure rate.

If Byron Young and the Vols' pass rush can get to Bennett semi-frequently, the calculus of this game changes quite a bit. If Bennett can throw from a mostly clean pocket, however, the Dawgs will likely roll. His weapons are strong and unique, and even with last week's dominance of Kentucky, Tennessee still ranks 87th in passing success rate allowed and 55th in raw QBR allowed. Hard-hitting defensive back Doneiko Slaughter brought a new element of physicality to Tennessee's secondary in a large role last week, but if the Vols try to light up Bowers or Washington, things might not go well.

Current line: Georgia -8 (no change since Sunday) | SP+ projection: Georgia by 9.2 | FPI projection: Georgia by 9.3.

According to ESPN's Stats & Information Group, underdogs in 1-vs-2 matchups are 24-12-1 against the spread and 20-17 outright since 1978. That suggests good things for Tennessee, but Georgia is still the defending national champ.


Where is LSU better than Bama?

No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU (7 p.m., ESPN/ESPN app)

After Georgia and Tennessee square off for the No. 1 ranking, Alabama fights for its playoff life (probably) Saturday night in Death Valley. As hostile as LSU's Tiger Stadium can be, this is the type of test Nick Saban's Crimson Tide tend to pass -- Saban is 6-1 in Baton Rouge since leaving LSU, and Bama has won its last three trips there by an average score of 31-6. They know how to quiet down a raucous crowd.

The Tide haven't been quite as good at that lately, though. Since the start of 2021, Bama has played seven true road games, lost twice and nearly lost three other times. In three road games this season, it has underachieved SP+ projections by an average of 6.3 points per game. More underachievement could mean another nip-and-tuck battle.

LSU is having a bumpy but increasingly rewarding season in Brian Kelly's first year in charge. The Tigers began with a disorganized loss to Florida State and got throttled by Tennessee a few weeks ago. They were ranked 10th in the initial CFP rankings, and they're up to 16th in SP+. After averaging 25.2 points per game in their first five contests, they posted 45 in back-to-back games against Florida and Ole Miss.

With an upset Saturday night, the Tigers would control their SEC West destiny. Where might LSU find advantages?

The Tigers stay on schedule as well as anyone. They're fifth in rushing success rate and eighth in standard downs success rate (standard downs: first down, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less). They don't make nearly enough big plays, but they create and convert manageable third downs. Josh Williams has rushed 31 times for 182 yards in the last two games, and Jayden Daniels is one of the country's most elusive quarterbacks. He can often run himself into trouble, but he's a great red zone talent (nine rushing TDs), and he rushed for 121 yards against Ole Miss.

Bama's defense is efficient but not dominantly so, ranking just 49th in rushing success rate allowed and 32nd on standard downs. The advantages flip quickly to Will Anderson Jr. and the Tide once LSU is behind schedule, but LSU could give itself a chance to stay on the field and produce.

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1:51

LSU's Daniels recalls youth battles vs. Bama's Young

Quarterback Jayden Daniels tells SEC Network's Marty Smith about his excitement for the rematch against the Tide QB Bryce Young after growing up in SoCal together.

LSU's defense could exploit Bama glitches. It's been jarring to watch Alabama constantly shoot itself in the foot. The offensive line has been awash in penalties, pressures and blown run blocks, and a young-ish receiving corps has dropped an alarming number of Bryce Young's passes. The Tide are still strong overall -- fifth in offensive SP+, 12th in points per drive -- but random bouts of self-destruction were almost costly against Texas and Texas A&M, and a glitchy start ended up dooming them in a track meet with Tennessee.

They can still make a ton of big plays. Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 6.9 yards per carry, Ja'Corey Brooks and Jermaine Burton have combined to average 16.6 yards per catch and youngsters JoJo Earle and Isaiah Bond have caught a combined 10 balls for 225 yards and two scores in the last four games.

The Tigers will need to limit big-play damage if they want to pull an upset, but if they do so, their brilliant red zone defense (ninth in red zone touchdown rate allowed) and Bama's predilection for self-sabotage could help immensely.

Current line: Bama -13.5 (up from -13 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Bama by 11.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 10.0.


This week in Big 12 bangers

We're giving the SEC most of this week's love, but let's note the latest pair of huge games in a conference that has provided by far the best combination of quality, close games and aesthetics (translation: points) this season.

No. 24 Texas at No. 13 Kansas State (7 p.m., FS1)

Following K-State's shocking 48-0 blowout of Oklahoma State last week, SP+ now gives TCU a 41% chance of winning the Big 12 crown, while Kansas State's odds are up to 27% and Texas is at 18%. The winner of this one has a great shot at landing a title game bid.

Really, this game could be decided by a single factor: KSU big plays. Chris Klieman's Wildcats are all-or-nothing on offense this season no matter which of two quarterbacks -- the recently injured Adrian Martinez or the even more explosive Will Howard -- is on the field. In three games in which the Wildcats managed only three or fewer gains of 20-plus yards, they averaged 18 points per game. In five games with four or more big gains, they averaged 38.

They have made 15 big-gainers in the last two weeks, and the entire skill corps has gotten into the act. Star running back Deuce Vaughn and receivers Malik Knowles, Kade Warner and Phillip Brooks were all involved in at least three such plays.

But "all-or-nothing" means there are periods of nothing, too. One such period cost K-State the TCU game two weeks ago. Texas has one of the most efficient defenses in the Big 12 and could create such a dry spell, but the Longhorns will still need a strong performance from quarterback Quinn Ewers, who is coming off his first genuinely bad start, a 19-for-49, three-pick performance against Oklahoma State two weeks ago. With such a tight spread, Texas will also likely need to overcome some close-game demons. The Horns are 3-8 in one-score finishes under Steve Sarkisian, and their only close win in 2022 came against an Iowa State team equally bad in close games.

Current line: Horns -2.5 (down from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Horns by 1.3 | FPI projection: Horns by 4.1.

Texas Tech at No. 7 TCU (noon, Fox)

TCU has to feel like it got a pretty raw deal Tuesday night. The CFP committee ranked the Horned Frogs seventh, punishing them for close wins and a lack of dominance. I figured that was a possibility, but I didn't think the committee would pair that with a No. 4 ranking for an even less dominant Clemson team.

Clemson got rewarded for three wins against "ranked teams" because the committee squeezed three ACC teams into the 20s (No. 20 Syracuse, No. 21 Wake Forest, No. 22 NC State). But the ACC has been dramatically weaker than the Big 12 in 2022. The Tigers' strength of schedule to date ranks 80th per SP+ and 72nd per FPI. TCU's: 36th and 63rd, respectively. (This is what happens when a committee proudly eschews the use of computer power ratings, but then gives its members leeway to create their own completely untested personal power ratings in their heads on the fly.)

When TCU missed out on a CFP bid in favor of Ohio State in 2014, the Frogs responded by obliterating Ole Miss 42-3 in the Peach Bowl. It would behoove them to respond in similar fashion Saturday. Texas Tech has been a wild card all year and has in the last two weeks produced its best performance of the season (a 48-10 win over West Virginia) and an absolute collapse against Baylor. It's difficult to figure out the Red Raiders -- or to even figure out who will be starting for them at quarterback from week to week -- but the Tech defense is vulnerable to big plays, and TCU's offense is better at producing those than just about anyone in the conference. That alone could make the difference.

Current line: TCU -9.5 (down from -10 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: TCU by 14.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 10.5.


My favorite bets

Hooray for being consistently above average! My best bets once again went 3-2 last week, moving this section to 25-19-1 (57%) for the season. We cruise right along, knowing we're one great week from a pretty special average and one bad week from being almost perfectly .500.

The lines are rough this week. By Sunday evening, half of the week's 60 lines were already within two points of SP+ projections, two-thirds within three points. It was tough to find value, but I at least found a few interesting choices. Here are this week's five picks:

South Carolina (-7) at Vanderbilt (7:30 p.m., SECN). The one genuinely confusing spread of the week, in my opinion. South Carolina is coming off of an awful 23-10 loss to Missouri; the Gamecocks made the Tigers' strong defensive front look like the best unit in the country. Plus, star running back MarShawn Lloyd is battling a thigh contusion. Still, SP+ projects the Gamecocks with a 13.9-point advantage. Subtract a point or two for Lloyd's uncertainty, and you would still have a pretty good cushion here.

No. 20 Syracuse at Pitt: Over 48 points (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Only five of these teams' 16 games have finished with under 48 points, including only two of the last six. Pitt's offense is a bit of a one-trick pony at the moment (hand the ball to Israel Abanikanda and hope), but (a) that's a pretty prolific trick to lean on, and (b) Syracuse's offense has been quite a bit better than Pitt's defense this year.

No. 12 UCLA (-10.5) at Arizona State (9:30 p.m., FS1). The ASU offense found some life last week, with former walk-on Trenton Bourguet throwing for 435 yards against Colorado. He could enjoy a decent day against UCLA's bend-don't-break defense, too. But the Sun Devils also gave up 359 yards and (with help from a punt return) 34 points to Colorado's destitute offense. ASU ranks 74th in defensive SP+, while UCLA ranks sixth on offense. That should give the Bruins a healthy advantage.

Marshall (-3) at Old Dominion (2 p.m., ESPN+). It's hard to trust either of these teams. Marshall has underachieved SP+ projections in five of its last six games, while ODU has done so in four of five. But if the trends cancel each other out, SP+ projects something closer to a 7-point Thundering Herd win.

No. 7 TCU (-9.5) vs. Texas Tech (noon, Fox). TCU is fast, motivated and probably something more like 14 points better than Tech. The Red Raiders are capable of just about anything good or bad, and we know about TCU head coach Sonny Dykes' history with November fades. Maybe that fade starts at Texas next week, but I don't think it will start here.


Week 10 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday night

No. 23 Oregon State at Washington (10:30 p.m., ESPN2). The Friday night forecast in Seattle is wet. Very wet. That might be the only thing that could tamp down the point totals -- both teams move the ball far better than they stop opponents from doing so. Current line: Washington -4.5 (no change) | SP+ projection: Washington by 4.5 | FPI projection: Washington by 3.8.

Early Saturday

Florida at Texas A&M (noon, ESPN). Freshman Conner Weigman throwing to freshman Evan Stewart: It's the future for Texas A&M football, and it might be the best shot the Aggies have of salvaging something in 2022, too. Anthony Richardson and the Gators need to win this one to avoid falling under .500 with three games left. Current line: A&M -3.5 (up from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: A&M by 6.3 | FPI projection: A&M by 6.1.

No. 2 Ohio State at Northwestern (noon, ABC). You should always watch Ohio State's devastating offense when you get the chance, but you probably won't need to keep tabs on this one for very long. Current line: Buckeyes -38 (no change) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 39.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 35.0.

Iowa at Purdue (noon, FS1). We've made a lot of jokes about Iowa and its aggressively retrograde -- and not even in a "good at retro stuff" way -- offense. But the Hawkeyes defense is still an absolute nightmare to play against, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise if Iowa turned this into a rock fight. Current line: Purdue -4.5 (up from -4 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Purdue by 0.4 | FPI projection: Purdue by 6.9.

No. 19 Tulane at Tulsa (noon, ESPNU). Now that colleague Kyle Bonagura has introduced the thought of a Tulane-UCLA Cotton Bowl, there's nothing in the world I want more. The gorgeous uniform aesthetics of such a matchup would break your television. The 7-1 Green Wave need to keep winning to make that happen. Current line: Tulane -7.5 (down from -8 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.2 | FPI projection: Tulane by 9.2.

Air Force vs. Army (11:30 a.m., CBS). One of college football's most underrated and bitter rivalries and generally one of the sport's guaranteed close games -- the last four meetings all have been decided by one score. At 3-4, Army needs this one to feel good about reaching bowl eligibility. Current line: Air Force -7 (up from -6.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Air Force by 7.0 | FPI projection: Air Force by 6.6.

Saturday afternoon

Michigan State at No. 16 Illinois (3:30 p.m., BTN). Bret Bielema's Fighting Illini are the Big Ten West's front-runners and seemed to enjoy the role while stomping Nebraska last week. Michigan State is dealing with suspensions in the aftermath of Saturday night's ugly Michigan brawl. Signs point to an easy Illini win, but their offensive limitations always provide a smidgen of concern. Current line: Illinois -17 (up from -16 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Illinois by 10.5 | FPI projection: Illinois by 6.5.

No. 18 Oklahoma State at Kansas (3:30 p.m., FS1). OSU looked absolutely fried against K-State last week. Will the Cowboys respond well to that reality check or was that the start of a spiral? Kansas still needs one more win to secure bowl eligibility after a 5-0 start. Current line: OSU -2 (down from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 7.1 | FPI projection: OSU 1.3.

Liberty at Arkansas (4 p.m., SECN). Arkansas will probably have too much for the 7-1 Flames, but the Liberty run defense is legit. Contain KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders and force the Hogs to pass, and LU will have a chance. Current line: Hogs -13.5 (down from -14 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Hogs by 13.2 | FPI projection: Hogs by 9.6.

No. 25 UCF at Memphis (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Memphis got a bye week after a gut-wrenching stretch of three losses by a combined 13 points. The Tigers could take out some frustration by derailing UCF's AAC title run, but that will require slowing down RJ Harvey, Ryan O'Keefe, Kobe Hudson and the Knights' bounty of playmakers. Current line: UCF -3.5 (down from -5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UCF by 5.3 | FPI projection: UCF by 3.0.

UTSA at UAB (3:30 p.m., Stadium). UAB is all but eliminated from the Conference USA race thanks to a trio of tight road losses, but the Blazers could make loads of big plays against a UTSA defense that is rather generous in that department. Awesome UAB back Dewayne McBride could be the key. Current line: even (down from UTSA -2 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UAB by 1.6 | FPI projection: UAB by 4.2.

Saturday evening

No. 4 Clemson at Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock). If the Tigers win out, they're in the playoff. That much is obvious. And even including a potential ACC championship contest against North Carolina, this game is the most likely loss left on their schedule. Notre Dame has started to put some pieces together since a gross loss to Stanford, but can the Irish's nibbling offense do any damage? Are they just going to hope DJ Uiagalelei suffers a bunch of turnovers again? Current line: Clemson -3.5 (down from -4 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 5.2 | FPI projection: Clemson by 5.2.

Auburn at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). Auburn just stole MSU's athletic director. That's a pretty fun time for these teams to meet up. Current line: MSU -13 (up from -12.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: MSU by 11.5 | FPI projection: MSU by 12.8.

Florida State at Miami (7:30 p.m., ABC). Miami's offensive collapse has taken some of the shine off this one. Can the Hurricanes' all-or-nothing defense contain FSU's explosive attack? Can the offense at least get to 20 points or so? Current line: FSU -7.5 (down from -8.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: FSU by 4.0 | FPI projection: FSU by 3.7.

No. 21 Wake Forest at No. 22 NC State (8 p.m., ACCN). Freshman quarterback MJ Morris saved the Wolfpack against Virginia Tech last week; will he be able to keep the Pack up if Wake's offense ignites? Can the Deacs get back on track after a shocking festival of turnovers against Louisville? The last two games in this series were 45-42 affairs. A third straight would be a surprise. Current line: Wake -4 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: NC State by 0.4 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.0.

No. 5 Michigan at Rutgers (7:30 p.m., BTN). I'm listing this game because it involves a top-five team. There probably won't be a reason to watch after halftime. Current line: Michigan -26 (down from -26.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 28.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 25.5.

Arizona at No. 14 Utah (7:30 p.m., Pac-12). The Utes won a tricky game at Washington State without injured quarterback Cam Rising, who is questionable for this one, too. Utah might not need him to outlast either Arizona or Stanford next week, but a Week 12 road trip to Oregon looms. Current line: Utah -17.5 (up from -16.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Utah by 25.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 24.1.

Late Saturday

No. 12 UCLA at Arizona State (9:30 p.m., FS1). Chip Kelly's Bruins still have a solid shot at the Pac-12 title and a 12-1 finish, but winning this one will likely require quite a few points. Current line: UCLA -10.5 (no change) | SP+ projection: UCLA by 14.2 | FPI projection: UCLA by 8.0.

California at No. 9 USC (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Two-thirds of the way through Lincoln Riley's first season, USC ranks third in points scored per drive and 92nd in points allowed. The former will likely matter a lot more than the latter against a Cal team that has a bit of life defensively but offers far too little on offense. Current line: USC -21.5 (up from -19.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: USC by 21.0 | FPI projection: USC by 20.1.


Small school showcase

Let's once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. It's always worth it. In last week's showcase games, Holy Cross-Fordham produced an overtime classic, Sacramento State survived a 31-28 thriller with Idaho, and at the Division III level, Wisconsin-La Crosse outlasted Wisconsin-Oshkosh with an interception in the final minute.

It's a bit of a light week at the lower levels with the playoffs on the horizon, but we've still got the latest potential Big Sky classic, plus some other fun showcases in FCS.

FCS: No. 1 South Dakota State at Northern Iowa (5 p.m., ESPN+). John Stiegelmeier's Jackrabbits are unbeaten against FCS opponents and well positioned for a top seed in the playoffs. But they haven't been incredibly dominant -- they're only third in my FCS SP+ rankings -- and while Northern Iowa isn't as good as normal, the Panthers are still rock-fight aficionados. UNI upset the Jacks in Brookings just last season.

FCS: No. 3 Sacramento State at No. 6 Weber State (3 p.m., ESPN+). After beating two straight top-15 teams, Sac State is off to Ogden to face a 7-1 Wildcats team that just beat Montana. These are the top two teams in my FCS SP+ rankings, and either could make a huge playoff run ... if they aren't too beat up from trying to survive a brutal conference slate.

FCS: No. 25 St. Thomas (Minn.) at Valparaiso (2 p.m., ESPN3). Can we talk about St. Thomas for a minute? The Tommies were booted from Division III's Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference for basically being too committed to winning. Without an obvious geographic home to join at either the D2 or D3 level, they chose to make an almost incomprehensible leap to FCS instead last year.

Too much of a jump? Nope! They went 8-3 in 2021, and last week's 49-42 win over San Diego made them 7-1 overall and 5-0 in the Pioneer Conference. And now they're in the top 25! In year two! The Pioneer Conference is not good -- a land of misfit toys -- but they're the best team in it already!

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