Mark Cannizzaro previews the AFC East as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2022 NFL season.
1. Buffalo Bills
Coach: Sean McDermott
2021 record: 11-6
O/U wins: 11.5
Key additions: DE Von Miller, G Rodger Saffold, WR Jamison Crowder, QB Case Keenum, RB James Cook
Key departures: WR Cole Beasley, WR Emmanuel Sanders, QB Mitch Trubisky
First-and-goal: QB Josh Allen remains one of the most dynamic talents in the league. Already equipped with big-play targets (see WR Stefon Diggs), Allen is going to love Crowder, the shifty slot receiver signed in the offseason. Crowder, who hasn’t been playing with a quarterback of Allen’s caliber, should be an upgrade from Beasley because he’s four years younger. In the backfield, the Bills still are led by Devin Singletary, who averaged 4.6 yards per carry last year, and Cook, the second-round draft pick. Don’t forget the 763 rushing yards and six TDs Allen ran for in ’21. Defensively, Miller has a chance to become the first Bills pass rusher to reach double-digits in sacks since 2016, when Lorenzo Alexander had 12.5. Saffold made his first Pro Bowl in 2021 and is slated to start at LG to help the running game.
Fourth-and-long: How will the Buffalo offense look without former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who was as responsible as anyone for helping develop Allen into the star he is today? Miller, 33, and Saffold, in his 12th season, are win-now acquisitions and represent some risk.
Cann’s Call: 12-5. The Bills, who were 13 seconds from an AFC Championship game berth in January, remain the class of the division. It’ll be a surprise if they don’t have the title all-but locked up before Christmas shopping season.
2. New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick
2021 record: 10-7
O/U wins: 8.5
Key additions: WR DeVante Parker, CB Malcolm Butler, CB Jabrill Peppers, LB Mack Wilson, G Cole Strange, WR Tyquan Thornton
Key departures: CB J.C. Jackson, RB James White, RB Brandon Bolden, WR N’Keal Harry, LB Chase Winovich
First-and-goal: Mac Jones performed as well as any of the rookie quarterbacks in 2021, starting 17 games and completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,801 yards to go along with 22 TDs and 13 picks. The expectation is he’ll take more steps forward in ’22. The addition of Parker, a big-play threat, will only enhance that.
Fourth-and-long: How will the offense look without Josh McDaniels, who’s been Belichick’s offensive extension for years and has been replaced by Joe Judge and Matt Patricia? The offense didn’t exactly looked crisp in training camp and preseason. One of the questions is whether the Pats have a true No. 1 receiver for Jones. The hope is that Parker fills that role — if he can stay healthy. In the backfield, the retirement of the veteran do-everything White leaves more responsibility on Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson as well as rookies Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong Jr., a fourth-round pick.
Cann’s Call: 10-7. There remain questions, beginning with how good Jones can become and how the offense will perform without McDaniels calling the plays. Belichick is good enough that he’ll have the Patriots competitive, but this does not look like a contending team.
3. Miami Dolphins
Coach: Mike McDaniel
2021 record: 9-8
O/U wins: 8.5
Key additions: WR Tyreek Hill, OT Terron Armstead, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Chase Edmonds, WR Cedrick Wilson
Key departures: WR DeVante Parker, WR Will Fuller
First-and-goal: Hill immediately makes QB Tua Tagovailoa better. The 28-year-old is coming off a 2021 season when he caught a career-high 111 passes for 1,239 yards and nine TDs. Combine that with WR Jaylen Waddle (104 catches as a rookie in ’21) and tough-matchup TE Mike Gesicki, and Miami’s offense will be much better in ’22.
Fourth-and-long: McDaniel is a first-time head coach with a strong pedigree. How quickly can he put his stamp on a team that’s been mired in mediocrity for so long? The Dolphins have been in constant search of a strong rushing attack for several years. They brought in Mostert and Edmonds, who will be used in a committee rotation McDaniel brings with him from San Francisco. Mostert knows McDaniel’s scheme, having played for the 49ers. The question is whether he can find the form of the 2019 NFC Championship game, when he ran for 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Edmonds produced 903 yards from scrimmage in 2021 as a backup to James Connor.
Cann’s Call: 9-8. There will be growing pains with the new coaching staff and new system, but there will be flashes of improvement.
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4. New York Jets
Coach: Robert Saleh
2021 record: 4-13
O/U wins: 5.5
Key additions: TE C.J. Uzomah, TE Tyler Conklin, G Laken Tomlinson, OT Duane Brown, WR Garrett Wilson, CB Sauce Gardner, RB Breece Hall
Key departures: WR Jamison Crowder
First-and-goal: Improvements were made in the most lacking areas, most notably in the secondary and skill position around QB Zach Wilson. There are big expectations with healthier WRs Corey Davis and second-year Elijah Moore. The drafting of Garrett Wilson, who has looked good despite some drops in training camp, also strengthens the offense. The drafting of Hall gives the Jets a strong one-two backfield punch with Michael Carter, whose 183 touches his rookie season amounted to 964 yards and four touchdowns. The biggest upgrade has been made at tight end with the signings of Uzomah and Conklin and the drafting of Jeremy Ruckert. This was the thinnest position on the team and now has a chance to be a strength.
Fourth-and-long: Wilson, who’ll begin the season rehabbing a preseason knee injury, must prove he can stay healthy and then needs to show he can be a big playmaker with the better weapons around him. Defensively, the Jets allowed 29.6 points per game last season and must improve on that. The hope the return of pass rusher Carl Lawson, who missed all of 2021, makes them more formidable up front.
Cann’s call: 8-9. The Jets make major strides in Saleh’s second season, but aren’t ready yet for playoff contention.