How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Wednesday, 3/13/24
Tip-Off Time: 12:00 pm PT
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Betting Line: Washington Huskies -7
USC Trojans 2023-24 Statistics:
Record: 14-17 (8-12)
Points For per Game: 74.7 ppg (123rd)
Points Against per Game: 74.5 ppg (235th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 110.1 (112th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (99th)
Strength of Schedule: 36th
USC Key Players:
G- Isaiah Collier, Fr. 6’5, 210: 16.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.2 apg, 48.8% FG, 32.9% 3pt, 67.8% FT
Collier was thought to potentially be the top pick in the upcoming draft when he enrolled at USC but has played his way out of that spot. He’s got size, athleticism, and can pass which means he’s top-3 in the Pac-12 in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, steal rate, and assist rate. But he’s averaging over 3 turnovers per game and shooting barely over 30% from the 3-point line which just isn’t efficient enough to warrant how frequently he shoots the ball. USC is just 2-4 this year when he scores 20+ points.
1st game vs. UW: 31 pts (14/19 FG), 0 reb, 2 ast
G- Boogie Ellis, Sr. 6’3, 190: 16.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.0 apg, 42.8% FG, 41.9% 3pt, 73.0% FT
Ellis plateaued as a player but he did so as an all-conference level shooter which is certainly pretty good. He has struggled from the FT line in Pac-12 play but is still at a career high 41% on 3’s while tying Collier for the lead in % of team’s shots taken. Husky fans likely remember when he eviscerated UW in Seattle last year with 27 points on 19 shots.
1st game vs. UW: 17 pts (6/13 FG), 4 reb, 3 TO
G- Kobe Johnson, Jr. 6’6, 200: 10.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.2 apg, 39.9% FG, 30.3% 3pt, 72.6% FT
Johnson entered the season with potential Pac-12 DPOY expectations and hasn’t quite lived up to the billing. His shooting percentages are down across the board with increased usage rate on offense and his steal numbers are also down a little from last year. He has the quickness and length to chase Moses Wood around screens all night and give him problems.
1st game vs. UW: 6 pts (2/8 FG), 9 reb, 5 sat, 2 blk, 4 stl
F- DJ Rodman, Sr. 6’6, 225: 7.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 45.1% FG, 38.1% 3pt, 75.4% FT
The former Wazzu starter transferred to L.A to be the glue piece for the Trojans and it hasn’t really worked out. That’s not exactly Rodman’s fault whose advanced stats are eerily almost identical across the board to last season but his playing time has dropped off on a more packed roster. He has the size and physicality to match up with Keion Brooks on defense and has shot at least 38% from deep in 3 of the last 4 seasons.
1st game vs. UW: 17 pts, 6/7 FG, 6 reb, 3 ast
C- Joshua Morgan, Sr. 6’11, 225: 5.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 55.9% FG, 59.7% FT
The Trojans have been running out a two-headed center monster of Morgan and sophomore Vince Iwuchukwu. Morgan still starts but has been losing ground in minutes over the last few games. The former Long Beach State transfer is 2nd in the country in block rate but unsurprisingly therefore commits 6 fouls per 40 minutes which limits his ability to stay in games. Morgan will jump at every pump fake so UW needs to be patient going to the rim. He really doesn’t like having to shoot the ball on offense and is a terrible rebounder for someone with his size and athleticism.
1st game vs. UW: 2 pts (0/2 FG), 3 reb, 1 blk, 2 stl
The Outlook
You would think that not much could’ve happened since I wrote my game preview a little less than 2 weeks ago so feel free to go back and laugh at it here. Obviously, something that has changed since then is that USC seemingly blew out Washington in Seattle, let the Huskies back into it, then held them at arm’s length in the final minutes. Also, both of these teams pulled off massive road wins against the top-two teams in the conference.
And oh yeah, Mike Hopkins got fired.
Most people expected USC to be a surefire top-25 team this season and many had them as a fringe top-10 squad. It looks like the Trojans now that they’re fully healthy and have had a chance to gel are living up to expectations just a little too late. At barttorvik.com you can sort the rankings for a specific date range and since February 15th, USC is the #17 team in the country. During that stretch USC is 5-2 with their only losses in 2OT against Colorado and a come from ahead narrow loss in Pullman. They have wins against Utah, UW, and Arizona.
Washington on the other hand did manage to pull off the ranked rivalry win over Washington State. The air got let out of the balloon pretty quickly though when Mike Hopkins was informed that he is getting fired at the conclusion of Washington’s postseason.
That introduces the ultimate monkey wrench. Are the Huskies going to be fired up (phrasing!) to try to win one last big game for their coach? Or are they going to be completely deflated and flat with a leader who is in the ultimate lame duck situation. NBA scouts will be watching this game because of Isaiah Collier. It would behoove the Husky players to try to slow him down at least a little this time around.
I’ve been laughably bad picking games for this Husky team all season. Every time they look down and out, they come through. Every time they look like they might go on a run, they crap the bed. Now we see both sides happening at once. On paper they’re playing a red hot team that just beat them on their home floor not even 2 weeks ago. On the other hand they just pulled off their first true road win in 15 years so something has to be going right, right?
My every instinct is that this team fails to get it done and we see the Mike Hopkins era officially end in the first game of the last Pac-12 tournament. Which means I’m picking a Husky victory.
Prediction
My record this year: 19-12 Straight Up, 12-18-1 Against the Spread
Washington Huskies- 79, USC Trojans- 73