Monday Night Football will bring us two games this Monday. At 5:15 in the afternoon, the New Orleans Saints will visit the Carolina Panthers as favorites by 3 points, with the over/under set at 40.
After spending 9 years with the Raiders, Derek Carr made his debut last week at the Superdome. His team won 16-15 against the Titans but failed to cover the 3-point spread; it was a close game where the difference was on the other side of the ball.
The defense intercepted Ryan Tannehill 3 times, didn't allow any touchdowns, and forced the Titans to settle for 5 field goals, despite being in the red zone 3 times.
In reality, the Saints' offense was not very accurate either, as the only 6-point touchdown in the game came from a turnover that gave them a short field to reach the end zone, which turned out to be the difference.
In Bryce Young's professional debut, the Panthers visited the Atlanta Falcons and lost 24-10, becoming one of the six underdogs who failed to cover their line in Week 1.
Despite having better statistics, defenses were also determinants in this game. Carolina had 3 turnovers that cost them 17 points: the number one pick threw 2 interceptions on his own side of the field, and Miles Sanders contributed with a fumble.
For this matchup, I expect the defenses to continue being the dominant factor. While the spotlight will be on both Carr and Young, we should be looking for Brian Burns from Carolina, who will seek to constantly pressure the quarterback.
On the New Orleans defense, keep an eye on the perimeter led by Lattimore, who will try to tarnish the rookie's debut at home.
According to some "pick 'em" contest sites, 91 percent of the people have selected the Saints as the winner for this game. In the Vanguardia MX pool, where the contest takes the betting line into account, this percentage drops to 78 percent. It is still a very high percentage, and we have often talked on the podcast about the perceptions of the "general public".
I normally don't feel comfortable going with the favorite team on the road, especially in a divisional matchup. But I also believe that going with a rookie who will take some time to correct his mistakes is risky, so the play I preferred was for both teams to score fewer than 40.5 points (best available line as of Saturday 2:00 PM). I believe the team that reaches 20 points will win the game.
PS: In the Vanguardia pool, I went with Carolina +3, but with only 3 confidence points.
TESTING THEMSELVES AGAINST THE STEELERS
The second game of the doubleheader of this Monday Night Football is the divisional matchup between Cleveland and Pittsburgh. As previously mentioned, the Browns have a great team. Their offensive and defensive lines are among the top 5 in the league, which can allow them to control the trenches and, with their formidable running game, control the pace and clock of the game.
The doubt that prevents them from being considered title contenders is their quarterback (a doubt very similar to the one Philadelphia had in 2022). In Week 1, their defense made sure Joe Burrow had his worst statistical performance in his career, keeping the Bengals to 3 points and a meager average of 2.6 yards per play.
On the other hand, the Steelers are coming off a crushing defeat against another strong defense, the San Francisco 49ers. Many experts predicted that Kenny Pickett would show signs of development, but we didn't see any of that last week. And it doesn't help that his offensive line has poor performance, which is by far the biggest weakness of this team.
The Steelers' defense is still solid, starting with their defensive line. We'll see if Cameron Heyward's injury affects the defense's performance. Much more responsibility will fall on T.J. Watt, who had 3 sacks, 1 defended pass, and forced 2 fumbles in the loss against the 49ers.
The market has the Cleveland Browns as favorites by 2.5 points, and the total points are set at 38.5. It's only the second time in the last 24 seasons that the Steelers are underdogs hosting the Browns. The last occasion was on December 1, 2019, when Cleveland was favored by 1 point. Pittsburgh won that game 20-13.
In fact, from 1999 to the present, the Steelers have a record of 22-2 against Cleveland, covering the spread 62.5 percent of the time. Clarifying that these types of trends are not enough or necessary to make a decision today, I lean towards the Steelers +2.5. I believe their defense will keep them in the game, and I'm still not convinced that the Browns' quarterback is close to the level we saw from him in 2020.